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April 18, 2008

Tomasino: Hughes At Crossroads

Via Dan Tomasino of The Post:

Phil Hughes is in dangerous territory. The 21-year-old Yankees right-hander will make his fourth start of the season tonight against the Orioles in Baltimore but already he faces a crossroads.

At 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA, Hughes could see his season spiral out of control quickly if he doesn't correct whatever has hindered him the last two starts.

Hughes and the Yankees coaching staff said his mechanics were off when the Red Sox pounded him for six earned runs on six hits and three walks during his two-inning performance Sunday.

"I see him rushing, trying to do too much instead of trusting his abilities, trusting his pitches," first-year pitching coach Dave Eiland said. "All young pitchers do it. He has to slow down the game a little bit in his mind. He's doing everything too quick."

That can be interpreted as a positive or a negative analysis.

On the plus side, it indicates that, if Hughes can calm his mind and allow his body to work, he'll be effective. On the other hand, for a pitcher who's been praised as much for his maturity and demeanor as for his fastball, the idea that his struggles are rooted in his mental approach is not a good sign.

"There's going to be rough spots," said Hughes, who will be opposed by hard-throwing right-hander Daniel Cabrera (0-0, 5.94 ERA). "You've just got to put your head down and go to work and get through them."

This will be the first time that Phil Hughes has ever pitched at Camden Yards. Here are Hughes' career splits, via Baseball-Reference.com, when batters hit the ball off him:

		PA	 BA	OBP	SLG    Babip
To Infield	106	.058	.058	.058	.058
To Outfield	151	.500	.490	.804	.462
Ball In Play	250	.298	.294	.396	.291
Fair Terr	250	.327	.323	.510	.300
Foul Terr         7	.000	.000	.000	.000
Pulled-RHB	 31	.400	.400	.600	.379
Up Mdle-RHB	 78	.280	.269	.373	.260
Opp Fld-RHB	 30	.172	.172	.172	.172
Pulled-LHB	 34	.500	.500	1.088	.414
Up Mdle-LHB	 64	.250	.250	.344	.250
Opp Fld-LHB	 20	.450	.450	.750	.421

Note these splits (from the above):

	        PA	BA	OBP	SLG    Babip
To Outfield	151	.500	.490	.804	.462
Pulled-RHB	 31	.400	.400	.600	.379
Pulled-LHB	 34	.500	.500	1.088	.414
Opp Fld-LHB	 20	.450	.450	.750	.421

These suggest that Phil Hughes gets battered, but good, when he allows hits into the outfield - especially when it's hit towards left-field or pulled into right-field.

Camden Yards is not going to help Phil in this respect. It could be a very interesting game for Hughes tonight down in Hot L Baltimore.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at April 18, 2008 03:29 PM

Comments

And we should care about what Dan the Nobody thinks because?

Posted by: Rich [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 18, 2008 04:05 PM

To imply that Hughes is at a "crossroads" is hyperbole. Sure, it's a big start today, but more in the sense that it's important for him to establish a positive foundation for future starts. People need to understand that ALL 21-year-old pitchers are going to have some stretches where they're struggling immensely.

The concern that I have isn't so much with Hughes' development as with the lack of contingencies should Phil need to go to AAA for a spell to work out some mechanical issues. I'm still licking my emotional scars from last years' Igawa starts

Posted by: brockdc [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 18, 2008 04:12 PM