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April 17, 2008
Shandler: Contact Rate Is Revealing
Via Ron Shandler in the USA Today (with a hat tip to BaseballThinkFactory.org):
There is a high variability in the batting average statistic. Once a batter makes contact with the ball, the final disposition of that at-bat is largely out of his hands (home runs excluded, naturally). Two identically hit line drives might yield different results depending upon where the fielders are standing.
So, when it comes to batting average, perhaps the skill that we should be tracking is the rate at which a batter makes contact.
Contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts, divided by at-bats) is a statistic that is far more stable and projectable. League level rates run about 80%. Our .300 hitters often come from those with contact rates greater than 90%. Batters with rates less than 70% typically have trouble keeping their batting average above .250.
I've always had this thing about making contact. So, I'm loving this talk about Contact Rate. Granted, there's more to it. A guy like Ted Sizemore made great contact - but, he didn't much else with the bat. Still, Shandler's comments are great food for thought.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at April 17, 2008 10:10 AM