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April 16, 2008

Keri On Why Yanks Will Win Or Lose A.L. East

Jonah Keri via the New York Sun:

WILL WIN IF: The young pitching pans out. Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy are off to rough starts this year. But Hughes in particular has both the stuff and the minor league track record to succeed at the big league level — it's just a question of when it will happen. There's a potential chain-reaction effect on the Yankees' staff. If Hughes or Kennedy don't pan out or Andy Pettitte's balky elbow gets the best of him, the Bombers could consider moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation. Underrated and talented newcomer Jonathan Albaladejo has a chance to become a very good setup man if the team lets him, which could make it easier to get Chamberlain in the rotation where he belongs.

WILL LOSE IF: The team's veteran hitters show their age. Already, the normally durable Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada have battled injuries. Jason Giambi's been declining for a while now, Johnny Damon looks like a Punch-and-Judy hitter and Bobby Abreu hasn't topped 20 homers in three years. The offense will be good, no matter what. But it needs to be great for the Yankees to win it.

It's an interesting point on the "power" question. Are Godzilla and A-Rod the only "true" power threats on the Yankees now? I could see where a case could be made to support that claim.

Posada and Cano should be good for 20 homers each - but, not much more. At this point, the only two guys on the Yankees who are pretty much "good" for 25+ homeruns these days are Matsui and Rodriguez, no?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at April 16, 2008 11:48 AM

Comments

Could we get any more basic in this article?

Let see. The Yankees will win if they score a lot of runs and their pitching is good.

They will lose if their positional players get injured and the pitchers don't pan out like they should.

How much do Journalist make? I could be in the wrong profession.

Posted by: gphunt [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 16, 2008 01:05 PM

Yes, Godzilla and Arod are probably the only two who are good for 25+, but I don't think it really matters. Everything depends on the pitching. See the World Series Winners from the last 10 years:

2007
Red Sox: one hitter w/+25 hrs (Ortiz 35)

2006
Cardinals: one hitter w/+25 hrs (Pujols 49)

2005
White Sox: two hitters w/+25 hrs (Konerko 40, Dye 31)

2004
Red Sox: two hitters w/+25 hrs (Manny 43, Ortiz 41)

2003
Marlins: two hitters w/+25 hrs (Lee 31, Lowell 32)

2002
Angels: two hitters w/+25 hrs (Glaus 30, Anderson 29)

2001
Diamondbacks: two hitters w/+25 hrs (Gonzalez 57, Sanders 33)

2000
Yankees: two hitters w/+25 hrs (Jorge 28, Bernie 30. Three hitters if you count the HRs Justice hit while an Indian)

1999
Yankees: two hitters w/+25 hrs (Tino 28, Bernie 25)

1998
Yankees: two hitters w/+25 hrs (Tino 28, Bernie 26)

Posted by: bfriley76 [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 16, 2008 01:06 PM