« New Canseco Book Targets A-Rod, Other Yanks, & Mike Piazza? | Main | Yanks To Charge $100+ For Upper Deck Seats Next Season »

March 17, 2008

What If Jorge Posada Goes The Other Way This Year?

At the end of the 2006 season, Jorge Posada had a .270 career batting average. However, for the 2007 season, Posada batted .338 - 68 points above his career average - and raised his career batting average to .277 (as it stands today).

Sixty-eight points from his career mark is a huge swing. The good news for Posada and the Yankees, last year, was that it was a positive swing.

But, what happens, this season, if Posada has another 68 point swing - in the other direction? Suppose Jorge now bats 68 points below his lifetime average - and puts up a batting average of .209 this season?

The lowest that Posada has ever batted in a full season was .245 (in 1999) and .262 (in 2005). Is a drop down to, or near, .209 even possible?

Well, what were the odds of him batting .338 last year? And, that happened.

While I still doubt that it could happen to Posada this season, man, if he hit .209 this year, it would make for an ugly scene - considering that he's in the fist year of his new multi-year contract. Hopefully, Jorge will bat between .270 and .280 this year, as he normally does, and the question will be moot.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at March 17, 2008 11:07 PM

Comments

What will happen is that Jorge will still get the hits when it counts. I never had a problem with him when he was hitting .250, the only time I was ever concerned about him was when he was having a tough time throwing out runners but he has fixed that problem.

Posted by: Spark [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 18, 2008 09:46 AM

The odds of Jorge regressing to his mean are substantial. The odds of him experiencing a 68 point spike from his career averages in either direction are not.

Why not write a series of posts over the next three+ weeks, walking through the projected 25-man roster and wondering what would happen if each of them (or, *gasp* ALL of them!) went the other way this year?

Posted by: yankees76 [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 18, 2008 03:53 PM