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March 28, 2008
THT: Five Questions: New York Yankees
Click here to check out SG's Five Questions: New York Yankees feature at The Hardball Times. It's extremely well done and recommended reading. Here's his summary:
The Yankees project to have the top offense in baseball again in 2008, even with the expected declines by Rodriguez and Posada. I've got them projected to score around 930 runs this season.
Their defense won't be particularly great with Jeter and Giambi out there, but Damon replacing Matsui should help a bit. I figure them to be about 15 runs below average defensively in total.
On the pitching side, Pettitte and Wang should be good for 400 innings of 4.00-4.25 ERA, so the Yankees will sink or swim on the backs of their young pitching. If they get an overall average performance out of them and an average performance out of the bullpen, they are probably a 95-win team. If they get a 5.00 ERA out of the non-Wang/Pettitte part of the pitching staff, they would be closer to an 88-win team.
This all makes sense, if you ask me.
Posted by WW Staff at March 28, 2008 12:22 PM
Comments
It's reasonable, but consider these numbers:
Mussina – 27GS/5.15ERA
Igawa – 12GS/6.25ERA
DeSalvo – 6GS/6.18ERA
Rasner – 6GS/6.33ERA
Karstens – 3GS/11.05ERA
Wright – 2GS/7.20ERA
That’s 50 awful starts and somehow the Yankees managed to win 94 games (which could have been more had they not clinched early). The Yankees have proven over the past few years that their offense gives them a significant margin for error on the pitching side.
Posted by: williamnyy ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at March 28, 2008 01:29 PM
Makes sense to me, too. We know that the the Yankees are going to score a lot of runs, but we're not really sure what the staff is going to do. If Kennedy and Hughes are the Real Deal, I think the Yanks will win 100+ games.
Posted by: Jordan Meisner at March 28, 2008 02:01 PM
Decline in Rodriguez? Yea I guess after having an MVP year you'll just go right back to worst player in baseball. Gimme a break, A-rod's declines are any other player's career years. I'm really sick and tired of people trying to discredit him just because he's insanely rich and talented. He's probably got the greatest skills in baseball and he still is incredibly intense on improving himself while having the greatest expectations put on him. He's expected to be Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle all in one package, throw in Joe Jackson too if you want. A-rod is the best player in the game and he has done with talent AND hard work.
Though here is some food for tho:
if Manny Ramirez had the same work ethic as A-rod, hell if he had ANY at all, think how good he would be. That's the impact of a work ethic
Posted by: Straylightrise at March 28, 2008 03:39 PM
"Decline in Rodriguez? Yea I guess after having an MVP year you'll just go right back to worst player in baseball."
Yes, that's exactly what I said. Good point.
If you expect Rodriguez to replicate his career year in 2007, good for you. That's not the most likely outcome, just look at his 2004 and 2006. Or did he suddenly only find work ethic last year?
Rodriguez will very likely be the most valuable offensive player in the AL in 2008, but that doesn't mean he won't have declined from 2007.
Posted by: SG at March 28, 2008 03:51 PM
BTW, thanks for the nice words Steve.
Posted by: SG at March 28, 2008 03:52 PM