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March 24, 2008
The Abreu Trade, In Retrospect
John Beamer at The Hardball Times takes an interesting look back at the Yankees trade for Bobby Abreu. His finding:
This analysis is relatively straightforward. Right now the players the Yankees sent to the Phillies have close to no value. The question is have the Yankees had fair value from Lidle and Abreu. To ask the question another way, how much have the Yankees spent per win compared to what they could acquire on the free agent market?
Using the OPS wins shortcuts: WAA = 0.025x(1.7 OBP + SLG - 1) and converting to replacement level weighting by playing time (using 650 at-bats as a season) Abreu ends up being 4.75 WAR for the one and a bit season he played in pinstripes.
During his time at Yankee Stadium, Abreu has received about $19.5 million. Doing the math that is about $4.1 million per win, which isn't too different to the Yankees signing Abreu as a free agent. In the end the Yankees were right not to give up too much to the Phillies.
Of course, this does not factor in the season to be played (this year). Abreu's performance in 2008 could make this analysis break in another direction, albeit good or bad.
Posted by WW Staff at March 24, 2008 12:52 PM
Comments
Who were the RF free agents available to the Yankees had they not traded for Abreu? JD Drew? Converted Carlos Lee to RF? Retained Gary Sheffield?
It's why stats, as useful as they can be sometimes, are sometimes ridiculous. The Yanks gave up virtually nothing to get Abreu and have gotten what I'd consider pretty solid contributions from him in his time here.
I don't see why we need a metric to value or to justify/rationalize what was a no-brainer trade: four players that won't amount to much for a former All-Star that fills a role in a spot vacated by injuries and age.
Posted by: MJ ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at March 24, 2008 01:19 PM
did he also take into consideration the fact that the major "piece" to the trade, CJ Henry, actually ended up back in the Yankees organization?
I didnt read the article linked, and i dont know if it would make a difference in the value of the package, etc, but just throwing it out there.
Posted by: TurnTwo at March 24, 2008 02:01 PM
Abreu had a pretty bleh season last year. If he can raise his OBP and hits/doubles back up to where he was with the Phillies then he'll be perfectly fine for what we gave up.
Posted by: Straylightrise at March 24, 2008 02:11 PM
I'm with MJ in questioning the criterion. "To ask the question [of fair value] another way, how much have the Yankees spent per win compared to what they could acquire on the free agent market?"
By this criterion, it would be fair for the Yanks to swap Derek Jeter for nothing.
There's nothing wrong with comparing a player's salary to his value, but there should be some consideration that it's better to have a team of fairly paid (or overpaid) great players than a team of fairly paid (or underpaid) bad players.
Posted by: David at March 24, 2008 02:46 PM
The Abreu trade was great. What's more amazing is that everyone knew this was a salary dump, and no one did anything to raise the price for the Yankees. Big gaffe by Theo on this account, and a big win for Cashman - now the Sox have to deal with an already-declining JD Drew for four more years, while the Yankees acquired what amounted to two low-risk, high-reward one-year contracts (and presumably a first and second-round draft pick when Abreu leaves), for absolutely nothing. Nice.
Posted by: Andrew at March 24, 2008 05:49 PM