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March 03, 2008

Moose In Spring Time

Mike Mussina got banged around a bit in his spring training game today. It’s hard to tell when it comes to Moose and his spring stats. See the following:

Season	S.T. ERA  ST. IP   Reg. RSAA
2002	5.57	  21.0	       7    
2003	2.37	  19.0	      23    
2004	9.00	   8.0	      -3    
2005	3.81	  26.0	       1    
2006	7.32	  19.7	      18    
2007	3.79	  19.0	      -8

In 2002, he was hit hard during exhibitions and had an O.K. year.
In 2003, he was great both in the spring and regular season.
In 2004, he had a rough spring and regular season.
In 2005, he had a good spring and an average season.
In 2006, he was hit hard during exhibitions and had a very good year.
In 2007, he had a good spring and rough season.

So, in the last 6 years, he’s had three good springs that only led to one good season. And, he’s had three rough springs but two times they led to good seasons. Basically, when it comes to Mussina, you have to throw the spring stats out the window – unless his ERA is way below three or way above eight, I suppose.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at March 3, 2008 02:59 PM

Comments

"Basically... you have to throw the spring stats out the window ."

Edited to more accurately reflect reality. The sample size is too small, the quality of batters faced is too variable, and all the evidence suggests that spring training results mean precisely: nothing.

Posted by: mehmattski [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 3, 2008 04:45 PM

With Moose at this point in his career, it's all about velocity. I know it's early, but I would like to know what his FB was topping out at today.

Posted by: Rich [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 3, 2008 06:37 PM