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March 11, 2008

Hughes and Kennedy Keys To Yanks Big Season?

Inspired by yesterday's Quality Start conversation, I decided to look at five A.L. teams and how they've done the last three seasons in games where they got a Quality Start. Here's the data:

QS_3Yrs_AL.JPG

Based on this small sample of data, it suggests that a good team in the A.L. probably needs about 84 Quality Starts from their starting rotation - and maybe closer to 90. And, if they have a decent offense, they should win about 75% of those games.

Think about that for a moment. If a team gets 84 Quality Starts, and they play .750-ball in those games, which they should, then that’s 63 wins. This means the team would then have to only go 37-41 in their other 78 games to win 100 games on the season. Sounds easy, huh?

To get 84 Quality Starts on the season means you basically need a Quality Start every other day, during the year. Or, you need 16 Quality Starts from each of the five guys in your rotation - thereabouts.

For the Yankees, you have to expect that Wang and Pettitte can give you 16 Quality Starts each this season. The question remains: Can Mussina, Hughes, and Kennedy also give you 16 Quality Starts, each, this year?

Maybe they can? Or, maybe they can't? Hughes and Kennedy have never done it before in the majors. Last season, Mussina had 13 Quality Starts - which is close to 16. If he can do that again in 2008, it would help.

At the end of the day, the key to the Yankees 2008 season may just be how many Quality Starts they can get from Hughes and Kennedy. If it's around 30 or more, combined, that should be enough to win the A.L. East for the Yankees - assuming Pettitte, Wang, and Mussina are their usual thing.

Posted by WW Staff at March 11, 2008 11:30 AM

Comments

Also, Wang and Pettitte can certainly give more than 16 quality starts. If they start 30-32 games each, would it really surprise anyone to see that total number (between the two of them) be something in the range of 40-45?

Also, watch out for Phil Hughes. This kid is on a mission, and I certainly would not be surprised to see him blow everyone projection away this year. He looks great in ST.

Health will be the issue here. A healthy year from IPK, Chamberlain and the aforementioned is the key to winning the East.

Posted by: j [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 11, 2008 12:50 PM