« Rays Elliot Johnson Injures Yanks Francisco Cervelli | Main | Yanks Scoping Out Damaso Marte? »

March 09, 2008

Kalkman: Historical Yankee Fielding

Sky Kalkman has decided to examine historical Yankee fielding. What follows below is Sky's own words. Thanks to Sky for sharing this content with WasWatching.com!

With the re-re-revival of the Derek Jeter fielding debate and the recent post [here] about historical Yankee fielding, I wanted to take a look at what the numbers have to say. I realize the numbers are exactly what many Derek Jeter supporters are railing against, but let's consider this a tour of Yankee history and a jumping off platform for more discussion.

First of all, what exactly are these numbers? I'm using TotalZone zone rating for the years 1956 through 1986 and STATS zone rating from 1987 through 2007 to measure range. (You can find links to these files, plus more, at this page.) The concept behind the two systems is the same, but the data through 1986 isn't as complete and therefore is a bit less accurate. But it's still way better than using fielding percentage or range factor. Why? Well, here's the short version. For a longer version, try this.

Zone ratings measure the number of batted balls turned into outs compared to the number of opportunities a fielder has. By opportunities, I mean any balls hit within a pre-defined area of responsibility on the field. (That's why you need play-by-play data -- it contains hit locations.)

Then, each player is compared to average for his position, and the number of plays above- or below-average is converted into runs. Each extra play made is worth about .8 runs. That number might seem large at first, but it's just the difference between the average value of an out (+.3 runs) and a single (-.5 runs) from the defense's perspective.

Team-Seasons

Ok, on to the numbers. Actually, let's start with a graph of Yankee team fielding runs compared to average for every season since 1956.

YankeeFielding.jpg

Before 1980, only four Yankee teams were worse than average. Since then, only four have been above average. Overall, things even out with the organization only 27 runs worse than average in 52 years. Compare that to the Mets, who were more than 1000 runs worse than average since 1962. Ouch.

Let's take a look at the positive end of the spectrum first with the best fielding season, 1976. The bicentennial team was 94 runs better than average, which lopped more than half a run off each pitcher's ERA. Graig Nettles (3B) led the way with +26 runs, but every other starter except Fred Stanley was at least +8 runs at their position: Willie Randolph (2B), Chris Chambliss (1B), Mickey Rivers, (CF), Roy White (LF), and Oscar Gamble (RF). Even Jim Mason was +7 runs in part time duty.

1960 wasn't a bad year, either, clocking in at +84 runs. That team was more top-heavy in the field, with four players at least +14 runs relative to their position: Tony Kubek (SS), Clete Boyer (3B), Roger Maris (RF), and Gil McDougald (2B/3B). Moose Skowron also had his best fielding season over at first base.

The only very good fielding season since 1978 came in the magical year of 1998, at +44 runs. Scott Brosius (3B) was all that his legend claims him to be, saving 23 runs compared to average. Paul O'Neill (RF) was excellent, Chad Curtis and Bernie Williams both cracked double digits, and Derek Jeter managed a positive number. On the negative side, Homer Bush (2B), Dale Sveum (UT), and Tim Raines (OF) were all -5 runs.

All-Time Leaders

Who are the best fielders in Yankee history? Here are the top and bottom career performers by position, only including their seasons in pinstripes.

Moose Skowron takes the top first base spot at +43 career runs, followed by Chris Chambliss (+35), Joe Pepitone (+30), and Tino Martinez (+28). Nobody truly awful has played first base for the Yankees in the past 50 years, although Jason Giambi scores the lowest at -14. Surprisingly, Don Mattingly clocks in at -10 runs in his career.

Willie Randolph (+51) and Horace Clarke (+45) are the runaway leaders at second base, while Alfonso Soriano and Chuck Knoblauch bring up the rear at -24 runs.

At short, Bucky Dent and Tony Kubek both contributed +66 runs over their careers. And yes, Mr. Jeter brings up the rear at -96 runs.

Stellar play at third base is definitely a Yankee tradition. (Maybe that's why the team left Jeter at short when ARod joined the team...) Four players were at least 40 runs better than average over their careers: Clete Boyer (+124), Graig Nettles (+98), Scott Brosius (+45), and Jerry Kenney (+44). Mike Pagliarulo brings up the rear (-27).

Center field isn't as impressive, with Mickey Rivers (+30) and Rickey Henderson (+24) leading the way. Bernie Williams (-67) held on to his position too long, while Bobby Murcer (-28) and Mickey Mantle (-21) are also worth mentioning.

In the corners -- I'm combining LF and RF because players at those positions often play both -- Roy White (+80) is the only player more than 20 runs above average. On the other end of the spectrum you've got Hideki Matsui (-34) and Dave Winfield (-29).

Single Season Leaders

How about the best individual performances in a single season? Let's move to a chart form:

Pos	Name           	Year	Runs
1B	Pep/Tino      	'63/'00	+10 
2B	W. Randolph	1976	+19 
SS	Bucky Dent      1980	+20 
3B	Clete Boyer	1961	+30 
CF	R.Henderson	1985	+15 
CO	Roy White   	1969	+15 

No surprises there, except Rickey taking the top spot in center, perhaps.

And the worst:

Pos	Name            Year	Runs
1B	Blomberg/Mantle	'72/'68	 -9 
2B	Chuck Knoblauch	1999	-15 
SS	Derek Jeter	2007	-20 
3B	Mike Pagliarulo	1987	-20 
CF	Bernie Williams	2002	-21 
CO	Steve Kemp      1984	-11 

I'm somewhat surprised Chuck Knoblauch's worst season is only at -15 runs. His range must have been pretty good to make up for some of the errant throws.

Gold Glove Winners

I went through every Gold Glove awarded to a Yankee and listed their runs above average for that season. The fifth column notes the actual deserving winner or contains other information. I left some comments blank when the Gold Glove was obviously undeserved (like during Mattingly's run.)

Pos	Year	Player		Runs	Comments        
1B	1965	Joe Pepitone	+7	close enough    
1B	1966	Joe Pepitone	+6	George Scott +15
1B	1969	Joe Pepitone	+4	close enough    
1B	1978	Chris Chambliss	+10	close enough    
1B	1985	Don Mattingly	-2	                
1B	1986	Don Mattingly	-4                      
1B	1987	Don Mattingly	-1	                
1B	1988	Don Mattingly	+5	                
1B	1989	Don Mattingly	-4	McGwire won '90 
1B	1991	Don Mattingly	0	                
1B	1992	Don Mattingly	-1	                
1B	1993	Don Mattingly	+6	only legit GG   
1B	1994	Don Mattingly	-2	                
2B	1961	Bobby Richardso	-11	worst in majors
2B	1962	Bobby Richardso	+3	Je. Kindall +19
2B	1963	Bobby Richardso	+12	only legit GG  
2B	1964	Bobby Richardso	0	Bobby Knoop +25
2B	1965	Bobby Richardso	-12	worst in majors
SS	2004	Derek Jeter	+3	Bobby Crosby +15 
SS	2005	Derek Jeter	+1	Jhonny Peralta +9
SS	2006	Derek Jeter	-5	Juan Uribe +14   
3B	1977	Graig Nettles	+9	George Brett +16
3B	1978	Graig Nettles	+11	deserved        
3B	1994	Wade Boggs 	+5	deserved        
3B	1995	Wade Boggs 	+13	deserved        
3B	1999	Scott Brosius	+9	deserved        
OF	1958	Norm Siebern	+8	close enough          
OF	1960	Roger Maris	+16	deserved              
OF	1962	Mickey Mantle	-13	second worst in majors
OF	1965	Tom Tresh      	-8	                      
OF	1972	Bobby Murcer	-3	                      
OF	1982	Dave Winfield	-9	                      
OF	1983	Dave Winfield	-16	worst in majors       
OF	1984	Dave Winfield	-6	                      
OF	1985	Dave Winfield	-3	                      
OF	1987	Dave Winfield	-1	                      
OF	1997	Bernie Williams	+1	                      
OF	1998	Bernie Williams	+10	only legit GG         
OF	1999	Bernie Williams	-15	                      
OF	2000	Bernie Williams	-5	                      

I have no idea how Clete Boyer never won a Gold Glove. Any thoughts on Mattingly's numbers? Was he more style than substance? Was his main strength scooping balls thrown his way? (According to Sean, no.)

One thing that would be worth exploring further is players winning the award a year or two after a great defensive season. It takes a little time for the managers to catch on, I think.

Finally, a note on Dave Winfield. His fielding reputation was obviously more for his arm, not his range. The value of most corner outfield arms swing from about -7 to +7 runs, but it's certainly possible to be higher than +10 runs, with a one-off season maybe at +15. Adding 10 runs per season to Winfield's total makes some seasons acceptable, although he's still a corner outfielder competing against center fielders. (Why isn't there a separate Gold Glove for center fielders?)

You can download and peruse these values at your leisure, but I'm also happy to answer questions about specific players, teams, or methods in the comments. Or email me -- skyking162@gmail.com

Sky writes about fielding and other under-appreciated aspects of baseball at his blog, skyking162.com

Posted by Steve Lombardi at March 9, 2008 09:54 AM

Comments

would it be possible to show the current yankees rosters last season and career numbers?

Posted by: Corey [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 9, 2008 02:03 PM

2007, combining all positions:

Robinson Cano 9
Melky Cabrera 8
Alex Rodriguez 1
Shelley Duncan 1
Kevin Thompson 1
Alberto Gonzale 0
Wil Nieves 0
Andy Phillips 0
Chris Basak 0
Jorge Posada 0
Wilson Betemit -1
Jason Giambi -1
Josh Phelps -1
Doug Mientkiewi -1
Bronson Sardinh -1
Johnny Damon -1
Miguel Cairo -3
Bobby Abreu -3
Hideki Matsui -8
Derek Jeter -20

For recent seasons, I would pay attention to UZR or PMR (available at baseballmusings.com) instead of just STATS zone rating. They're a step or two better.

Posted by: Sky [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 9, 2008 02:49 PM

Careers at one position, all teams

1B Dougie M +32
1B Giambi -7
1B Phillilps +2

2B Cano +9

SS ARod +59

3B ARod -8

LF Matsui -34

CF Damon +28
CF Melky +3

RF Abreu +13

Posted by: Sky [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 9, 2008 03:12 PM

I'm SHOCKED there isn't a bigger response. Are these fielding numbers not that interesting? Not that believable? Not that different from expectations?

Are the Don Mattingly and Derek Jeter supporters working on full length manifestos?

Nobody's even mentioned Brooks Robinson as the reason Clete Boyer never won a GG, which is a decent argument. Robinson saved the most runs relative to position of any player over the past 50 years, including Ozzie Smith and Mark Belanger. (The two SS's were more valuable fielders, however, because shortstop is a more valuable position than third base by at least five runs per season.)

Robinson '56 to '77: 0 3 7 12 16 15 18 10 16 6 3 32 30 26 10 20 19 21 16 19 0 1

Boyer '59 to '72: 1 15 30 29 13 15 8 13 -1 6 2 9 1

By TotalZone's calculations, Boyer was the better fielder from 1961 to 1966, although '61, '62, and '66 were the only season where the advantage was at least 10 runs. From 1967 through 1975, Robinson was superhuman, AVERAGING over 20 runs per season better than average.

Posted by: Sky [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 10, 2008 11:03 AM