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March 07, 2008

Gennaro: Joba's ROI Higher In Rotation

Via Vince Gennaro through Yahoo! Sports -

By placing Chamberlain in the starting rotation versus the bullpen, the Yankees stand to gain more than $24 million in value over the next six years before he is eligible for free agency.

The value could be even greater when we consider that a commitment to a No. 3 starter via free-agency would come in the form of a multi-year contract, which is fraught with injury risk. Chamberlain could be retained on a series of one-year contracts, minimizing the Yankees’ exposure to risk of a catastrophic injury. Should he perform at the level of a No. 2 starter, he would be worth about $50 million versus a setup role.

In a study like this, rather than use the factor of how much money the Yankees will save with Joba in the rotation over a high-priced vet, I would like to see something that factors in the value of the relief pitcher with respect to his contribution towards wins - perhaps factoring in Leverage Index - and then put a dollar sign on what wins mean to the team, in the bottom line.

Is there value, outside of salary saved, for the Yankees to have Chamberlain make 20 beautiful starts in a season and then have half of those gems turned into losses because the team lacked quality arms in the pen (such as his)?

For me, it always comes down to that golden rule in baseball: Every season, with the exception of maybe the 1962 Mets or 1998 Yankees, every team in baseball is going to win 60 games, no matter what, and every team in baseball is going to lose 60 games, no matter what - and, it's what you do in those remaining 40 games that will make or break your season.

A team needs to do whatever it takes to win as many of those 40 games as possible. And, if that means applying your resources in a manner that's best aligned for success, regardless of the salary savings or lack thereof, then that's what a team should do, no?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at March 7, 2008 06:42 AM

Comments

So you're saying that 5-6 IPs of Joba and 1-2 IPs of a mediocre reliever is worse than 5-6 IPs of a Lohse-type and 1-2 IPs of Joba?

Long Live Cash.

Posted by: Croatoan [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 7, 2008 07:19 AM

I think the yanks are playing it smart. Prepare him as a starter (like they did with procter 2 years ago) and put him in the pen. Then begins a 2-3 month try out for his replacement with Farnsworth, Hawkins, Ohlendorf, Humberto Sanchez, Melacon, and so on. They have no choice but to start him in the Pen if they really want to keep his innings down.

At some point in June, they will have a look at the rotation and pen and see what they really need to do. Is Mussina done? Can Farnsworth step it up in his walk year? Are any of the other kids ready. Maybe by June, Horne is ready to step into the rotation...

Mussina or injuries may force their hand with Joba.

With the young arms that they are trying to protect, they are going to have to spread some innings around and I think nothing is written in stone at this point. They have a plan, but they have many back up plans...

If they yanks did plan on keeping Joba in the Pen all season, then a Lohse singing makes sense, just based on the fact that he could eat some innings...

Posted by: dave [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 7, 2008 07:44 AM

So you're saying that 5-6 IPs of Joba and 1-2 IPs of a mediocre reliever is worse than 5-6 IPs of a Lohse-type and 1-2 IPs of Joba?
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And it's not guaranteed that there will be a lead for Joba to protect.

Having said that, if they deploy him similar to Rivera in '96 (w/20-30 more innings), I'd be happy with that.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 7, 2008 09:41 AM

I thought the argument all along has been that Joba has the skill set of a top-flight starter and using him, long-term, in the bullpen would be a waste of his abilities. Mariano is who he is (arguably the greatest closer ever), but the reason he is WHERE he is is because he was a mediocre starter with only one great pitch. By all accounts, Joba has 4 plus pitches, and it would be a waste to utilize them in a 1 or 2 inning role. That, to me, as strong an argument as any for getting him into the rotation as soon as possible.

Posted by: bfriley76 [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 7, 2008 09:49 AM