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March 12, 2008

Cashman On Brackman

Via John Harper -

"You saw what David Price did, right?" Cashman was saying Tuesday. "Well, up until April of last year, the question in the industry was who was going to be the No.1 pick, Price or Brackman.

"So as much as the talk was about Price that day, I was thinking, 'I can't wait until our guy has a chance to get out there and feature the stuff he has.' Because he was neck-and-neck with Price until he hurt his arm, and I believe we'll see that same kind of talent when he comes back."

"It will just take a little more of what we've been asking for around here," Cashman said. "And that's patience."

"He wasn't even on our radar until the injury because he was going to go so high," Cashman said. "That allowed us to have a chance, and we knew he'd probably need Tommy John surgery, but we've had a history of success with guys who had it done, and there's a 92% success rate with it throughout baseball, so we decided to go ahead and take him.

"My feeling is we're the Yankees and we should be very aggressive in going after the best amateur talent, even if it comes with some risk."

This is an interesting concept. I don't know where Cash gets his "92% success rate" on TJ surgery cases - so, I cannot confirm it or contest it.

I found a very recent feature that says "Today, the success rate for Tommy John surgery is about 85 percent, with pitchers following a rehabilitation timeline not all that different from the one John used during 1975."

In any event, I would like to see that broken down to "success rate" on proven major league pitchers and "success rate" on amateur pitchers - which Brackman really is, at this point, since he's yet to throw a real pitch in a professional game.

This is just a gut feel thing - but, I would bet that the "success rate" is higher on guys with professional track records over guys who had it in High School or College. Again, this is not based on fact. It just seems that, if someone's ulnar collateral ligament is ready to blow at such a young age, without all the pressure of the innings logged as a professional, it's a sign that we're not dealing with the greatest wing in the world here.

Without the benefit of any study and/or data, this is all just words in the wind...and I admit that, freely. Perhaps someone has already studied this? It would be a nice report to see...and apply it to Brackman's case.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at March 12, 2008 08:54 AM

Comments

I know Alan Horne had it in college and he's been pretty successful so far.

When did Henn have it? Because before hand he was hitting 100 MPH and now he's in the low 90s. I'm assuming that he's considered in the non-successful category.

Melancon had been hitting in the mid 90s again so is he considered successful?

Posted by: gphunt [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 12, 2008 10:26 AM

Kinda wonder how much mechanics play into it, though I understand that a pitchers arm could go anytime, anyplace.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 12, 2008 11:41 AM