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February 05, 2008

Verducci: Yanks Put Kennedy In Risk Of Injury

From Tom Verducci -

The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It's a general rule of thumb, and one I've been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it's amazing how often they pay for it.

Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed. In other words, you might be able to finish that marathon for which you didn't properly train, but your body will have hell to pay for it. I call it the Year After Effect.

Here's the way I track it: Find major league pitchers 25-and-under who broke the 30-inning rule. In some cases a pitcher's innings the previous season may have been artificially depressed, such as by injury, so I'll use his professional high for the baseline, or, in the case of a recent draftee like Kennedy, his college workload. All innings count (minors, majors, postseason).

In 2005 and '06 I found 17 pitchers I defined as at-risk of the YAE. None made it through the next year without an injury or a higher ERA. Ten of them broke down, the most seriously hurt being Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Adam Loewen, Scott Mathieson and Anibel Sanchez. Eleven of them had worse ERAs, by an average of about a run and a half. Remember, it's a general rule; there are exceptions, the superlative Justin Verlander being one.

The Yankees already have put one of their prime young pitchers at unnecessary risk, [Ian Kennedy].

It's O.K., I'm sure that Kei Igawa will be ready to step in and pick up the slack if something happens to Kennedy. (Yes, that's a joke.)

Posted by WW Staff at February 5, 2008 02:16 PM

Comments

Funny how Verducci never seemed to care about "abusive increases in workload" when his pal Joe Torre was burning out arms left and right in the bullpen. I wonder how many chapters Tommy V. will devote to the "Torre Effect" in their upcoming book.

Posted by: Tex Antoine [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 02:32 PM

Could we see the unfolding of a de facto 6-man rotation? Wang, Andy, Phil, Joba, Kennedy, Moose? Keeps the innings down, but might raise issues with respect to staying sharp. Maybe Ian and Joba take turns doing a month at a time in the bullpen. Carrying 6 starters means the bullpen will get stretched unless a few of the starters chip in from time to time. Given the age range of the staff, very young and very old (or at least a lot of years in Andy's case), it might unfold whether or not they plan it that way.

Also, Wang went from 116 IP in '05 to 218 IP in '06 without breaking down and with a lower ERA.

Posted by: #15 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 02:45 PM

Just realized I screwed up and didn't include Wangs innings in the minors before getting called up in '05.

Posted by: #15 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 02:49 PM

According to Will Carrol, college and minor league innings do not equate to major league innings in this type of analysis.

Posted by: SteveB [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 02:55 PM

Pete Abraham mentioned that Verducci didn't include Kennedy's HWL innings from 2006 so it turns out Kennedy in 2007 exceeded his 2006 numbers by 30.67 innings.

Posted by: Basura [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 03:31 PM

Yup, the Hawaii IP pretty much moots the column.

Posted by: Rich [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 03:33 PM

Verducci does mention it.

"One caveat: Kennedy's jump is not as alarming as first blush indicates. The Yankees did give him an extra 30 1/3 "unofficial" innings of winter ball in 2006 (see Carmona below); not your high-stress big league innings, but still good incremental training. If you count that work, his jump of 30 2/3 innings barely pushes him into the danger zone."

Posted by: gphunt [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 04:05 PM

That caveat renders his argument semi-moot, and needless to say it should have been included in this post. Cashman is staking his career on his young pitchers, and Nardi certainly deserves his "expert" cap... so I wouldn't worry too much about how they will manage their innings; they know what they're doing better than we ever will.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 04:26 PM

The "caveat" came up in an update of the SI article once Kennedy's HWL innings were brought to his attention, Steve probably wrote his post based on the original article.

Posted by: Basura [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 04:36 PM

~~~ The "caveat" came up in an update of the SI article once Kennedy's HWL innings were brought to his attention, Steve probably wrote his post based on the original article.~~~

Tommy V did update his feature – probably because many, and I think SG at BTF was the 1st, brought up the HWL innings.

Personally, I don’t think that one should count the HWL innings. When did his college season end, June? When did he throw in the HWL, December and/or January? To me, once you have a half-year, thereabouts, in between the college season and the HWL, it takes away from being able to combine them as being an innings total thrown in one year. But, maybe that’s just me?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 05:00 PM

I never really thought this stuff could be based on opinion. Do we count HWB innings or not? Of course you count them! His arm is being taxed, the muscles are doing the work beyond what they are used to.

Posted by: Mike A. [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 10:01 PM

Mike - have you ever exercised? Rest, in between, is a huge difference. HUGE.

If you did 25 chin-ups, stopped, counted to ten, and then did some more, it would not be the same as doing 25 chin-ups, then letting a few days pass, and then doing some more.

This is the same thing. He threw a bunch of innings in the NCAA, and then took off 6 months, and threw 30 more. It's not like he threw a bunch in the NCAA, took four days off, and then threw 30 more.

It's not taxing the muscles in the same way, because of all the rest in between.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 10:22 PM

Steve, he wasn't sitting on his couch in between the college season and the HWB season. He was down in Tampa throwing bullpens and simulated games the whole time, even before he signed. His arm was working, and even though it was light work, it was still work.

Posted by: Mike A. [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 10:32 PM

Will Carrol. Addressed the fact that minor league innings aren't the same as MLB innings. On LoHud. Like a week ago. Repeating myself. Please listen. I mean you no harm. Read the post already.

Posted by: SteveB [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2008 12:36 AM

~~~He was down in Tampa throwing bullpens and simulated games the whole time, even before he signed. His arm was working, and even though it was light work, it was still work.~~~

But still not the same stress as facing batters in game conditions.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2008 06:44 AM

Will Carrol. Addressed the fact that minor league innings aren't the same as MLB innings. On LoHud. Like a week ago. Repeating myself. Please listen. I mean you no harm. Read the post already.
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That's his supposition, it's not fact.

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This is the same thing. He threw a bunch of innings in the NCAA, and then took off 6 months, and threw 30 more. It's not like he threw a bunch in the NCAA, took four days off, and then threw 30 more.

__

Yet if he pitched in April and May, and then went on the DL until September, he would be given credit for the September IP.

Posted by: Rich [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2008 12:22 PM