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February 16, 2008
SAFE: A-Rod Should Play SS Over Jeter
From Popular Science -
Enter Spatial Aggregate Fielding Evaluation, or SAFE, a new yard stick for fielding developed by professor Shane Jensen and his stat-junkie colleagues at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and presented today at the AAAS Meetings in Boston. In short, Jensen examined every hit from the 2002-2005 baseball seasons and developed a formula that spit out the probability of the average player at each position recording an out on a batted ball. He then compared this to individual players' stats and determined how many runs each player's fielding performance either saved or caused.
First basemen, it turns out are relatively inconsequential when it comes to fielding balls. On average, the best first basemen will only save their team one or two runs over the course of the season; the very worst only cough up five. The distinction is much more apparent at the shortstop position, where Alex Rodriguez was the best everyday shortstop in the league, saving 10.40 runs each season for the Texas Rangers. Derek Jeter, the New York Yankees shortstop who is often hailed for his defensive prowess and has won three Gold Gloves, ranks dead last in the majors, coughing up 13.81 runs per season. Before the 2004 season, the Yankees traded for A-Rod and shifted him to third base in deferrence of Jeter, but based on these numbers, that move could be costing them 23 runs per season. Would the Yankees be better off with A-Rod at SS? Probably, but I'm a Red Sox fan, so I'll keep quiet on this one.
Looking back at the Fielding Bible, I see that A-Rod was +11 (in the Plus/Minus rankings) whereas Jeter was -14 (back in 2003 when they both were shortstops). This does synch-up with SAFE.
But, watching Alex play third, the last four years, I see a lack of range (by him) along with a weakness in fielding bunts and pop-ups. So, how in the world does he then become a good fielding shortstop?
Could it be that Alex, when at short, did a better job at positioning himself (than Jeter's been doing the last few years)? If so, is that a reflection of the player, alone, or the player and his management?
It will be interesting to see if Jeter's Plus/Minus numbers and/or SAFE grade improve this season with Joe Girardi and Rob Thomson manning the ship.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at February 16, 2008 06:08 PM
Comments
Having watched A-rod play SS and Jeter play SS, simply put, A-rod was the better shortstop, he is simply out of position playing third.
It wasn't positioning when A-Rod was with the mariners and rangers, he simply had more range, and a better arm.
A-rod though is not a good fielding 3rd baseman, and considering he has only been playing that spot since joining the yankees, I think its to late for him to ever be one.
It doesn't help either that until last season, A-rod, since he was playing 3rd base, chose to bulk up and gain more muscle, after the 2006 season, he shed that weight, but it definitely reduced his speed and range.
Posted by: Sonny M ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at February 16, 2008 07:26 PM
It's worth pointing out that most metrics agree that Jeter has been merely below average since Arod arrived. I think Jeter was playing slightly out of position to cover the range limits of Brocious and Ventura. Something has certainly changed.
I'm also not sold that switching the two would be beneficial at this point- Jeter's flaws (his slow first step and his limited range to his left) would be magnified at 3rd.
Jeter will be a hell of a right fielder someday though.
Posted by: jscape2000 at February 16, 2008 08:37 PM
Jeter's first jump is very poor. he's fielding instinct in that department isn't very strong. he also doesn't position himself particularly well.
Though I'd think this sort of move is pretty much out of the question now. Alex probably doesn't have the range he use to now either. and Jeter's bad first step at 3rd would be just as disastorous anyway.
I could see Jeter moving to some other position in the future (CF?) but I highly doubt it would be Alex that take over.
Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen at February 16, 2008 08:47 PM
A-Rod is not as quick as he was four years ago. We all know that A-Rod was a better shortstop. At this point, the gulf has lessened. But since Jeter's not moving, who cares?
Anyway, really funny story from spring training via Kat O'Brien:
"Joba Chamberlain, still technically a rookie, has zero rookie reticence. He will talk smack to any teammate, from Alex Rodriguez to Jorge Posada. Yesterday, he took on Mike Mussina. He challenged Mussina in video games, then ping pong, each of which Mussina said he doesn't play. As Mussina walked out of the clubhouse, Chamberlain said something with no response from Mussina, then called out: 'The hearing's the first thing to go when you get old, right?' Mussina popped back around the corner to say: 'I hear everything you say. I hear everything you think.'"
Posted by: baileywalk at February 17, 2008 01:34 AM
Im not sure why people thinks Jetes should be move to the OF, when every indication is he could be a decent 1st baseman. Great at popups, great at cut offs, can field grounders and liners. He would still not have great range, but in all other aspects, he should be decent.
At 34, do we think he could learn the judgement needed and how to take routes on OF flys?
I'd move Jetes to first, ARod to SS and put our money into the best 3rd baseman and OFer money can by.
Posted by: singledd at February 17, 2008 09:27 AM
Jeter's ZR was .765 the season, the lowest of his career. If it wasn't caused by the issue with his knee, and his ZR is at similar unacceptable depths this season, the charade needs to end, and he must be moved.
Posted by: Rich at February 17, 2008 11:24 AM
singledd: the reason is because OF is higher on the fielding spectrum then 1B, there's simply more value in a OF's defense then a 1B (if they're equally effective ofcourse) a CF hitting in the mid .800 OPS is a star, a 1B hitting that is just average.
Jeter seems to be pretty good at reading FBs and his overall speed is pretty good too. with a good arm, there's reason to believe he could be a pretty good OF
Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen at February 17, 2008 10:00 PM