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February 08, 2008
Moose & Spring
You shouldn’t pay any attention to Spring Training statistics – or, so “they” say. Experienced big leaguers are just trying to get their work in – and they don’t care about the numbers. Younger hitters are ahead of older pitchers early in the camps – and younger pitchers are ahead of the older hitters early on as well. You hear all kinds of stuff, like that.
However, I believe there are some types of numbers that you can trust in Spring Training. If you have a 20-year old shortstop who’s never played above Double-A and he bats .083 in 50 Spring Training At Bats, that’s probably a sign that he’s not ready for the big leagues, yet. And, if you have a 39-year old pitcher who posts an ERA of 8.97 in 20 innings or work, over the Spring, that’s probably a good warning sign that he’s well past his better years.
So, what happens in Yankeeland, this Spring, if Mike Mussina gets hammered in exhibition games? Should the Yankees ignore it – and allow him on the team (no matter what)? Or, should they consider cutting him before Opening Day – or try to trade him – if he’s just flat out (in the words of Frank Caliendo doing Charles Barkley) “turrrible” next month down in Tampa?
Me? I think you have to pay attention to Moose’s performance this Spring and give him no guarantees that he’s a lock for the team. Yes, I know that General Joe, among others, have said that “Mike didn’t forget how to pitch over the last year” (or something close to that). But, I would offer that, while the mind is willing, the body doesn’t always follow. Mussina may “know” what to do – but, his body may no longer be able to perform it.
What do you think? Would you have Mussina on watch this Spring – as if his place on the team depended on him having good numbers next month? Or, do you think it doesn’t matter what the results are for Moose in the exhibition games?
Posted by Steve Lombardi at February 8, 2008 07:45 AM
Comments
Well they're not going to cut him, as you suggest. I also doubt they're going to trade him. The truth of the matter is that they need Mussina -- even a broken one -- more than ever this year. The Yanks can't just dump Mussina because adding more kids to the rotation won't solve the issues of inexperience, innings limitations, or a lack of depth.
Having said that, I have no reason to believe that Mussina will be very good in 2008. Other than a brief period of success in 2006, he's been broken since 2004. Fortunately, this is his last year in New York and we can just mutually walk away, whatever the results are.
Posted by: MJ ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at February 8, 2008 09:27 AM
I think that the key for Mike Mussina has always been fastball velocity. If by the end of spring training, he's touching 90 mph, he'll be fine. If he's still at 86, he's in trouble.
Posted by: DownFromNJ at February 8, 2008 09:48 AM
Heh. With all the kids, I keep forgetting that Mussina is on the team. Hopefully he can still be effective. In a world with no injuries, I'm guessing that Joba will start out in the pen and then switch with Mussina sometime during the season.
Posted by: mehmattski at February 8, 2008 10:49 AM
Why does Mussina's fastball have to be 90 MPH? He has more junk in his bag then any other pitcher. Glavine, Maddux, Kenny Rogers, Schilling, and Moyer all have success pitching with crappy fastballs. He also has stellar control. Why is it that he can't learn to stop trying to strike everyone out and just induce ground balls?
Posted by: gphunt at February 8, 2008 11:04 AM
Not to change the subject, but what are the Yankees expecting to do with Carl Pavano? Will he be pitching in spring training games? What if Mussina pitches poorly in the spring and Pavano pitches above expectations? Do the Yankees trade Pavano? Or give him a limited spot in the rotation? I mean, last year, he only pitched in two games, but he did look good against the Twins pitching 7 innings and only giving up 2 runs...I know that we shouldn't depend on him performing well, but couldn't he be a diamond in the rough? He's only 32...
Posted by: vabeach39 at February 8, 2008 11:09 AM
You know I'd rather see Joba start in the rotation and then move to the bullpen to end the season. Switch with Kennedy. Let Kennedy start the season in the bullpen or in the minors and bring him up for the second half to take Joba's spot.
If by the second half the Yankees still haven't found a reliable 8th inning guy for the stretch run you gotta move Joba there. Plus, it keeps his innings low.
Posted by: gphunt at February 8, 2008 11:11 AM
Tom - Pavano had Tommy John Surgery and probably won't touch a baseball again until much later this year.
Posted by: WW Staff at February 8, 2008 11:21 AM
thank you for the update
Posted by: vabeach39 at February 8, 2008 11:32 AM
I think that the key for Mike Mussina has always been fastball velocity. If by the end of spring training, he's touching 90 mph, he'll be fine. If he's still at 86, he's in trouble.
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You saved me some typing.
Posted by: Rich at February 8, 2008 11:40 AM
Why does Mussina's fastball have to be 90 MPH?
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Moose has only been effective when there is a sufficient disparity between the velocity of his fastball and his off speed pitches because otherwise the hitter cannot merely sit on his fastball.
It has been reported that he is working out this offseason to increase his arm strength for the first time. Maybe it will pay dividends.
Posted by: Rich at February 8, 2008 11:44 AM
Other than a brief period of success in 2006
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By "brief," do you mean "the whole year"? Mussina might have been flat-out awful in '07, but you can't take '06 from him -- he threw 197 innings and had a 3.51 ERA. He slowed down in the second half A BIT, but he created stability every five days in the first half of the season.
Mussina lives and dies with his change and curve nowadays. There were times last year, after Moose changed his arm angle, where he was able to get that 89-91 velocity. If he truly comes in stronger, then maybe he can maintain 89-91, but if his curve and change are effective, he can live with 87-88 throughout a game.
Posted by: baileywalk at February 8, 2008 01:58 PM
Steve, come on, he's owed $11 million. He's on the team and he's in the rotation. He's a veteran, and he'll get the benefit of the doubt unless/until he has a series off bad starts (like the three in a row that benched him last year). Also, the three kids can't throw 600 IPs, so we'll need (at least) another starter, even without injuries.
Posted by: yankees76 at February 8, 2008 03:30 PM
Mussina is done unless the Yanks trot him out against the Royals and Rangers of the world. His stuff just isn't what it used to be. I don't think he's better than the big three at this point. With that said, he would be a nice option as a spot starter/ long reliever. There are about $13 million reasons why that might work. The Yanks won't cut him because of that and Mussina won't waive his no-trade clause.
Posted by: E-ROC at February 8, 2008 04:18 PM