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i think it falls in the lap of IPK. he has a good spring, he makes the starting roster. if he's in the rotation, assuming Moose is guaranteed a spot out of camp, Joba is the extra piece to the puzzle, and is free to go to the bullpen.

if IPK doesnt have a good spring, I think Joba is in the rotation and IPK starts at AAA.

Why is this another reason to put him in the bullpen? The Yankees' bullpen will be a cast of a thousand in the spring. Someone could emerge as a legit eighth-inning guy. Or another starter (Horne, White, etc.) could do it. There's no reason for them to make up their minds NOW about Joba. Let things play out -- if they need him in the 'pen, then so be it, but for right now he should be preparing as a starter. Having him in the rotation, as opposed to both Mussina and IPK, makes it a much more formidable rotation.

How does this not make sense to people:

180 IP, 3.50 ERA

has a greater impact on the team than

80 IP 2.50 ERA

On an individual game level, let's see... the Yankees' offense should score near six runs/game in 2008. So let's give the Yanks 5 runs in the 8th inning. Which is better:

1) The opponent has 1 or 2 runs because Joba had a solid start.
2) The opponent has 4 or 5 runs because Kei Igawa sucked as usual.

In the second case, of course you need a good bullpen, to get you out of a jam. But in the first case, there are no jams!

Over the course of a season, Joba in the rotation prevents more runs than Joba in the bullpen. It's very simple, people!

"In the second case, of course you need a good bullpen, to get you out of a jam. But in the first case, there are no jams!"

You think Hawkins and Farnsworth can protect a 2 run lead every time Joba hands it to them in a late inning (after his start)?

OK, what about the other 4 starters?

With Joba do handle the 8th, he can help with more 2 run leads - for all the starters. Therefore, he can have a hand in, say, 50 wins - as opposed to, maybe, 20, as a starter.

the counter to that argument would be that with Joba not in the rotation we won't have as many of those 2 run leads.

"With Joba do handle the 8th, he can help with more 2 run leads - for all the starters. Therefore, he can have a hand in, say, 50 wins - as opposed to, maybe, 20, as a starter."

A very big hand in 20 wins (pitching 2/3 of the game), or a very small hand in 50 wins (pitching 1/9) of the game.

With Steve, I know that I could point to his favorite pitching stat (RSAA) and it would be clear that Joba would save more runs as a starter than as a reliever. I don't know if you are similarly sophisticated.

The point of pitching is to prevent the other team from scoring runs. The team that prevents their opponents from scoring runs the best is, historically, going to be very successful.

2007: Red Sox
2006: Tigers
2005: White Sox
2004: Cardinals
2002: Giants

What do each of these teams have in common, other than appearing in the World Series? They were first in their leagues in runs prevented. (The Marlins and Yankees were both in the top 5 of their leagues in 2003.)

Besides, in the article linked, the PECOTA projection for Joba:

145.2 IP, 162 K, 55 BB, 3.39 ERA

Is based on 15 starts and 50 relief appearances. It's the best of both worlds, and a third world of "injury prevention." Hopefully everyone will recognize the value of Joba in the rotation in 2008 and beyond.

I wonder if the Mets will move Santana to the bullpen. Aside from Wagner their bullpen is pretty weak. They wont blow many leads with that sweet bullpen. He can have a hand in almost FIFTY WINS!!

~~~I wonder if the Mets will move Santana to the bullpen. ~~~

Why this makes no sense: Johan can give you 230 IP as a starting pitcher, unlike Joba, who, now, can only give you about 150 IP. It's the innings limit on Joba that makes a move like this, to the pen, make sense.

~~~The point of pitching is to prevent the other team from scoring runs. ~~~

Agreed. But, it's not a sum total game. You have to look at it on a game by game basis.