WasWatching.com

Steve,

I'd normally be the first one to jump on you for the 'doom and gloom' post, but since you hit me with a pre-emptive strike, I'll have to adjust my plan of attack :]

You're right about the Rays - the prospect of them getting really good, really fast is something that needs to be considered. I thought it would have happened already - I saw it coming when the Yankees had all those problems beating them in 2006 (I think we were sub .500 against them, I could be wrong.)

The thing I think you're missing is that you're evaluating this situation without giving credence to the moving parts the Yankees will have. Sure, the Rays will get better as their players mature and become who they will become. But go ahead and put me in the camp that believes that the Yankees future is a bright one:

- If Cashman so desires, Pettitte, Abreu, Mussina, Pavano, Giambi and Farnsworth are no longer on the payroll in 2009. Add Damon and Matsui to that list in another year. That's a lot of dough that can be used on guys like Mark Teixera, CC Sabathia.. take your pick. You've pointed out well that Cashman has a checkered past when it comes to FA signings, so this may not necessarily be a blessing. However, I'll take a fleeting payroll over an expanding one any day, and I'm comforted by the fact that Cashman avoided getting involved with the Gil Meche-Ted Lilly types.

- The 2006 draft is a prime example of how a good draft strategy (which the Yankees have in paying draftees over slot to get guys they would have never able to get with a pick in the 20s) can turn the prospect of a team around. The Yanks have an 08 sandwich pick and depending on how 08 goes, the 09 draft could be very fruitful (assuming 1 or 2 guys who go are Type A - I'm thinking Abreu and Pettitte, Type B - Farnsworth, Mussina.) The benefits of a good farm system aren't just having cheap young players to fill spots on the big club, but having them as trade chips when they're obviosuly blocked at the big league level (do you think Brad Suttle will ever play 3B for the Yankees?)

So, my point is, a lot can happen. Yes, the Rays are dangerous. But until they get a bullpen with more than 2 guys that can throw strikes they're still not a contender. But with they're stacked farm, they could certainly make a move. It'll be interesting to watch.

As for the doom and gloom feeling to this post, I'll only say this: there was more than 1 way to write this, and you certainly chose the "How will you feel when the Yankees finish behind the Rays" theme. If you wonder why people give you a hard time for these kind of posts, there it is. Pointing out the pessimistic view of a topic because you think everyone else is overly optimistic is not the same thing as being objective.

Well, you already seem to understand this is hyperbole. I don't have a problem with this premise -- Tampa has a fine team, a loaded farm system, and they have a lot of pitching on the way -- but I do object to the speed in which you have them winning. I don't think it will be 2009.

I'm also not sure it's accurate to say the Yankees are getting older. Thanks to Cashman, they are getting younger. At some point this year, they might have three under-25 starters in their rotation. How many teams can say that? Wang is only 27-28. Giambi and Damon are relics, and the team does have age, but most of it is going to be gone soon.

That's why I don't "fear" the Devil Rays. I look forward to seeing a great team. The difference is that the Yankees themselves have a terrific farm system and also much more money to spend on development than the Rays. And like the Sox, they also have more money to spend on free-agent plug-ins for places that the minors don't cover.

So I'm not exactly stitching the Rays' World Series cap just yet. The Sox and Yanks will still be better than them in the near future, though the Rays will have an excellent team.

Another thing you might want to look into (and admittedly I don't know the answer to this question) is how long have the Rays had such a great farm system? The reason their farm system is packed with studs is because they stink *every year* and get high draft picks. There's something about their formula that's just not working. I think it might be because in the late 90s they went with the "team full of experienced, winning vets" and that didn't work out, but I'm not sure.

As has been alluded to, Tabata and A-Jack should be in the Bronx by 2009. The Yankees will likely have a younger/more productive 1Bman by then as well. Taken together with The Big Three, as well as Brackman, Sanchez, Melancon, Horne, Montero... We're golden.

So you spent a great deal of time properganding the risk of young players earlier, but now this?

The Rays have essentially 3 (Crawford , Kazmir, Pena and I guess you could kinda count Percevial) players that have put up more than 1 solid season in their major league career on their roster. and 1 of them had a huge seperation between the two good seasons.

so now they have no risk, but the Yankees are too risky?

During the offseason, I tend to get a bit desperate for "content," and that leads me to this site repeatedly, as it is one of the few regularly updated sites with Yankees content.

That being said, I really can't wait for the season to begin. I spend very little time reading the blogs from Opening Day through the World Series, and I'm going to really look forward to putting this site in the rear view mirror for six months.

Steve, I don't know what in your life has made you such a pessimistic, and any speculation on my part would just seem like an ad hominem attack, but you should really talk to someone, man. You're almost clinical. Some people see a set of facts, and see shades of gray. You seem to see only shades of black.

Instead of being depressed about the Yankees facing even more competition within the Division, how about being positive about a moribund Rays franchise potentially turning the corner and putting a winning team on the field. That's good news for baseball, even if it makes the Division tougher to win.

You really need a dog or something, man. Get a puppy. For us, please get a puppy.

I see nothing wrong with this post. Teams that have young talent and gel seem to end up beating on the Yankees....2002 Angels, 2007 Indians, 2003 Marlins.

There's nothing wrong with Steve pointing out that the Rays have made some serious strides in developing players that have all been playing with each other for several years in the minors. You can expect they will all move up together and become a solid team.

At the same time the Yankees and Red Sox have also developed serious young players that will soon benefit the MLB club and the Rays now have to contend with that as well. Even Toronto has a few highly touted prospects in the minors. The AL East is becoming a talent haven/monster.

Leave WW Staff alone. At least he pointed out that the Rays might finish ahead of the Yankees in future years and not the Red Sox...b/c finishing ahead of the Sox aint ever happening!!

The Rays are definitely a scary team......right now. We know they can hit with the best of them, even though they are free swingers for the most part. Their pitching is catching up. And catching up very fast. McGee, Price, Kazmir, newly acquired Garza, James Shields and etc have a chance to become something special. The question is whether their ownership will spend some money on veteran leadership.

With all of that said, the Yanks will be fine. They'll continue to the changing of the guard, sorta speak. The expensive position players will obvious get a little older and long in the tooth, but there will be a lot younger too, if some of these prospects pan out. I'm not too worried.

There is nothing wrong with this post, and the gist is valid (the D-Rays will, in fact, at some point in their history pass the Yankees). Having said that, I agree with yankees76 about this site pretty much becoming the "worst case scenario" blog. While I enjoy objective analysis, looking at every event through the prism of how can this most be bad news for the Yankees gets a bit tiring. I also don't envision checking back in as much once the season gets underway and content is abundant in other places.

ok, i'll bite. the Rays have always had talent, but how well has that worked out for them so far?

the problem with the rays has always been pitching. have they upgraded the rotation? a little, with some prospects to come. and the bullpen is a little better, too, but they are counting on a strategy of bringing in veterans to put a band-aid over a gash, a plan that you have bashed Cashman on for being a fundamentally flawed idea.

maybe in a vaccuum, you could say taking the Yankees team this year and Rays team this year, and then keeping the rosters identical in two years, you'd have a legit argument.

but the Yankees have as much talent in the upper levels of the system, especially the pitching, that the rays do, and they have the positional prospects in the pipeline.

oh yeah, and they have the money to spend to plug holes if need be, which the rays have not demonstrated the will to do yet.

i'm of the belief that the rays can be a .500 ballclub this year, and have always been a thorn in the yankees side, because they play an aggressive style of baseball like the angels do... but before we label them a playoff contender in 2009 and beyond, lets see them hit the .500 mark first.

A lot depends on not only how well the talent pans out, but the ability of Andrew Friedman (Rays GM) to address the needs of the Rays.

I hope he does a lot better with his talent than Horace Stoneham did with his; http://tinyurl.com/2fwozw

Put the Rays in the NL Central over the past couple of years, and they'd have been knocking on the playoff door every season. The Yankees don't match up too well against them because our outfield arms have been weak. They turned singles into doubles against Matsui, Bernie and Damon all the time. I'd like to see the Yankees play the strongest defense they can field against these "running" teams. Torre wouldn't do it. Joe G. will.

It sucks finishing behind any team, but I wouldn't personally feel any extra "mental blow" because it was the Rays. They've got a very good young team and oodles of pitching on the way, so much so that they'll still develop some studs even with a normal attrition rate.

The Rays have a loaded system and yes, that is in part due to having high picks year after year, but they still have to do their homework and take the right guys. What's the Pirates' excuse?

The Rays are going to be that team in the second half this year, "the team no one wants to play" so to speak. Next year they can be very good, and in 2010 they could be a juggernaut once their young arms get a season under their belt. If they get some cash from that rumored new stadium, they could have one hell of a run.

the D-Rays will, in fact, at some point in their history pass the Yankees
----

How is this a fact? While you're gazing into that crystal ball of yours, maybe you can tell us if the Rays will even still be in Tampa in the next few years.

Baileywalk...I have no crystal ball, but assuming there isn't a major realignment and the Yankees and Rays (whether they remain in Tampa or not) continue to the share the same division, at some point they will finish higher in the standings. While that may not be a "fact", I think it is pretty reasonable to conclude that the Rays will have a better team than the Yankees at one point in my lifetime, which I hope lasts at least another 50 years.

Having said that, I am not sure why anyone would focus on this statement.

The negativity here is hilarious.

yankees76, williamnyy, others...

Gosh, you guys are cherry pickers. In the last three days, there have been "positive" entries to this blog on Pettitte, Alberto Gonzalez, Hank, A-Rod and Damon…just by a quick count/scan.

This is why I can’t take you nitpickers seriously. You guys bitch about “negative” entries, etc., and, yet, you never notice or comment on the ones that people like you would classify as “positive.”

It’s you guys that always “focus” on the negative things – not me.