« Who's On First? For Yanks, Lots Of Guys, Since 2004 | Main | New Look S.I. Yanks »

February 11, 2008

In Case It's Not Cold Enough For You Today

Brian Cashman has said that Mike Mussina is a lock for the Yankees rotation, this season, as we head into Spring Training. Cashman has also said that Joba Chamberlain will not be in the Yankees starting rotation for the full six months of this season.

So, you have Andy Pettitte, Worm Killler Wang, and Mike Mussina at the front end of the Yankees rotation. And, you need to have about 60 to 64 starts covered, in the back end of the Yankees rotation – by somebody.

The plan, of course, is to have Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to cover the back end of the Yankees rotation this season. But, what happens if the unthinkable happens? What happens if these two can’t go for the Yankees this year? Say, what happens if Hughes pulls a severe hamstring or has some elbow tendonitis that will prevent him from being part of the Yankees rotation to start the season? And, at the same time, what happens if Ian Kennedy just gets tattooed in Spring training, say, to the tune of an ERA near eleven and the Yankees decide that he needs to start the season at Triple-A?

This is where it gets interesting. In both Hughes and Kennedy stall, for whatever reason, in camp this year, and the Yankees need to replace BOTH of them in their rotation to start the season, here are the candidates to replace them: Alan Horne, Jeffrey Marquez, Kei Igawa, Jeff Karstens, Steven White, Chase Wright and Darrell Rasner.

Both Horne and Marquez have talent. But, to be fair to them, they should get more seasoning at Triple-A before being thrown into the Yankees rotation this season. This leaves Kei Igawa, Jeff Karstens, Steven White, Chase Wright and Darrell Rasner.

Both White and Wright, somewhat like Horne and Marquez, are sort of green as well. This leaves Kei Igawa, Jeff Karstens, and Darrell Rasner.

Therefore, the question for today is: Yankees fans, how would you feel about your favorite team’s chances this season if they have to fill, say, around 40 games this season with Kei Igawa, Jeff Karstens, or Darrell Rasner as your starting pitcher?

Last season, Kei Igawa, Jeff Karstens, and Darrell Rasner started 21 games for the Yankees – and, New York survived. But, would they survive if that number was doubled?

A chilling thought for what is a really cold day in NYC today.

Posted by WW Staff at February 11, 2008 09:36 AM

Comments

Not great, but they've done this kind of thing before to a greater extent and made the playoffs. However, you can construct a similar scenario for any team in baseball, and it doesn't look to happy. What if Lester and Buchholz aren't able to hold their own in the majors? Or if Tim Wakefield breaks another rib? Would Sox fans feel okay with Julian Tavarez and David Pauley started 40 games for them next season?

When was the last time you wrote a hopeful article about Yankees players, Steve?

Posted by: Andrew [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 09:51 AM

Do you have a link for that?

Posted by: jscape2000 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 10:03 AM

"What if Lester and Buchholz aren't able to hold their own in the majors? Or if Tim Wakefield breaks another rib?"

Ah, from your lips to the baseball god's ears, I say!

Posted by: WW Staff [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 10:03 AM

jscape - from Pete Abe today:

Cashman said that Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang are in the rotation. He also has penciled in Mike Mussina despite the veteran right-hander going 11-10 with a 5.15 ERA last season.

"Last year was a blip. We're counting on Moose to have a bounce-back season," Cashman said. "He'll be one of our starters."

The Yankees have 21-year-old Phil Hughes, 22-year-old Joba Chamberlain and 23-year-old Ian Kennedy for the other two spots. None are guaranteed a spot, Cashman said.

Chamberlain electrified baseball as a reliever last season, allowing one earned run in 24 innings and striking out 34. But he threw only 116 innings all told last season and will likely be limited to approximately 150 innings this year.

"We'll prepare him as a starter, get through spring training and then determine where he starts," Cashman said. "He has an innings limit and won't go start to finish as a starter. That won't be allowed.

"It wouldn't be safe, that's our belief. You have to put the brakes on and make sure he stays healthy."

http://tinyurl.com/2zjavb

Posted by: WW Staff [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 10:08 AM

"When was the last time you wrote a hopeful article about Yankees players?"

2 days ago: http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2008/02/hello_joe.html

Posted by: WW Staff [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 10:11 AM

The nuclear scenario you proposed has kind of happened every season since 2005 and yet the Yankees still find a way to make the playoffs. In many ways, it is comforting to know the Yankees do have a pretty significant margin for error.

Posted by: williamnyy [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 10:17 AM

The nuclear scenario you proposed has kind of happened every season since 2005
==========
You mean since 2004...

I'd feel comfortable with Rasner & Kartsens starting. Felt that way about them last year, and had they not gotten hurt, I think they would've eaten a good number of innings. My expectations are low with Igawa, but I've seen pitchers with less stuff survive in the MLB, so I wouldn't be surprised if he were able to turn it around.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 10:40 AM

I said PLAYERS, not former players...;)

Posted by: Andrew [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 11:42 AM

You should really change the name of this blog from "Was Watching" to "Is Very Pessimistic"

Posted by: Josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 12:51 PM

Josh - We would counter with...while some confuse the lack of optimism with pessimism, more so, it's a matter of trying to look at all angles.

Posted by: WW Staff [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 01:01 PM

I guess you forgot the next sentence:

"Chamberlain could be skipped, used in the bullpen or be used as part of a six-man rotation for parts of the season."

It's really not all that surprising to read a doomsday scenario in which Hughes gets hurt on this web site, but... if it did happen, my reaction wouldn't be quite as sanguine as the rest of these guys. If any team lost its third and fifth starter (which I believe, respectively, Hughes and Kennedy are) it would be a big blow. Rasner is a nice workman pitcher who can get the job done, but Karstens is not a big-leaguer, so I hope that those two wouldn't get the job (maybe Rasner, but not Karstens). Hopefully Horne would have gotten some time in AAA and they would think he was ready, and I would probably make White the second choice.

The Yankees would survive, but it would hurt, because for the all the pitching depth they have, the upper-level guys like Horne, White, Wright, Marquez and McCutchen aren't anywhere near the pitchers Hughes and Kennedy are.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 01:04 PM

Or, of course, the obvious solution is to put Joba back in the rotation as the #5 starter. Your scenario pretty much assumes that we are talking about May-June, by which time Joba will have taken enough time away from starting that putting him as the #5 and skipping him when possible will keep his innings down. Then, yeah, Steven White, Horne, Igawa, Karstens, Rasner could all fill in.

Posted by: Zack [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 01:18 PM

We would counter with...while some confuse the lack of optimism with pessimism, more so, it's a matter of trying to look at all angles.
=================================================
While it certainly may be that, the fact that nearly every single posting appears to ONLY look at the negative makes it hard to say that you're getting "all" the angles as much as only the negative ones.

Believe me, I understand where it comes from. I do it all the time too. I'll watch Mussina give up a bunch of hard-hit balls in the first inning, see the team down 4-0 early and immediately hit the panic button. It's human nature to have that kind of defense mechanism. But to shield it under the guise of objectivity is a touch disingenuous. Doesn't mean I don't love this blog -- I TOTALLY do -- but you're probably not as honest about this point as you could be. No worries, most of us aren't either.

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 03:34 PM

This post could apply to almost any ML team. What if Phil Hughes gets in a car accident on his way back from taking Sean Henn out to Flemings to thank him for his number change, and what if Moose really pushes Joba on the five-mile run that Joba challenged him to this offseason and Joba has a heart attack, and what if IPK decides he misses his new bride too much and wants to move back to Southern California during her last year of school. OMG, it would be a disaster!

Yes, Steve. It would be a disaster, and Kei Igawa would probably get a regular turn in the rotation.

We should change this site's name to "Was Watching, until the fear of countless potential dooms made watching impossible... Melancholy commentary from a Yankee ledge jumper."

Steve, at this time of the year, most fans are really looking forward to the new season. The challenges, the opportunities, the hope for success. All of this "what if A-Rod leaves Cynthia for that she-male" crap that you have been posting is pretty ridiculous.

Ben

Posted by: yankees76 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 07:00 PM

You mean all the Negative Angles right??

I don't think this blog has said anything positive since Game 5 of the 2000 World Series.

Posted by: Dave Polands Gut [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 11, 2008 09:26 PM

If push comes to shove, I think the Yanks would make a trade for a starter. Ben Sheets anyone? It has been reported MLBTRADERUMORS.com that the Yanks have mild interest in Joe Blanton. He would sense because of the innings cap on Hughes and Chamberlain.

Hopefully, Mike Mussina steps up his game this year. That's a big "if" though. I think Horne and Marquez would hold their own if promoted. The Yanks don't need world beaters. League average would be just fine.

Posted by: E-ROC [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 12, 2008 06:58 AM