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January 26, 2008

Torre Pen Management: Clueless Or Desperation?

One of the cool stats that they track in the Bill James Baseball Handbook 2008 is "Relievers Used on Consecutive Days" (RCD) by managers.

First, some background for a baseline. In 2007, for A.L. managers who served the full year, the average RCD (meaning a 162-game average) was 97 (times). In the N.L., the average was 122 - which makes sense as you're pinch-hitting for pitchers in that league and using replacement pitchers more often.

Now, here's Joe Torre's RCD marks as Yankees manager, through the years:

1996: 97
1997: 84
1998: 71
1999: 80
2000: 92
2001: 77
2002: 86
2003: 75
2004: 129
2005: 92
2006: 109
2007: 113

The numbers for 2004 and 2006 are in bold as those were the high-marks for the league those seasons. And, the high mark (for the league) in 2005 was 114; and, in 2007 it was 131 - both set by Ozzie Guillen of the White Sox. So, it's safe to say that Joe Torre, from 2004 to 2007, used relievers on consecutive days as much as anyone - and, he came within a few ticks of leading the league in RCD four years in a row.

But, note, before 2004, Torre's RCD marks (with the Yankees) were always under 100. And, based on the average mark of 2007 (97), you can pretty much say that Torre, prior to 2004, was near-to-almost-below average in terms of using relievers on consecutive days.

So, what was so different about 1996-2003 and 2004-2007 that turned Joe Torre into a reported relief pitcher abuser?

At first, I wondered if it had anything to do with Don Zimmer. After all, Zim was there from 1996 to 2003 - and, once he left, Torre's RCD numbers went crazy. Maybe Zimmer was the one making sure that "Clueless Joe" was not always calling on the same reliever?

But, then, I reminded myself of the state of Yankees pitching, both post-2003 and pre-2004.

In terms of the bullpen, when the Yankees had guys like Stanton, Nelson and Lloyd, their pen was effective - and, once those guys were gone, starting in 2004, the Yankees bullpen became a mess (in terms of effectiveness). So, it makes sense that, post-2003, Torre would keep calling on the same guys, even on consecutive days, because he had so few quality relief arms to call upon.

Actually, as a whole, pre-2004, the Yankees had strong pitching. And, that probably helped Torre control his RCD totals too - as starters went longer in games, etc., and there was less of a need to call on the bullpen. It was post-2003, that the Yankees started bringing in starting pitchers who failed - and often - placing more stress on a pen that was under-manned in terms of quality pitchers.

The numbers post-2003 and pre-2004 show us that it was not always Torre's tendency (in New York) to run up high RCD numbers. In a way, it's sort of a perfect storm effect that impacted Torre after 2003: Inferior starters, combined with a shortage of quality relievers, leading to high totals of relievers used on consecutive days. The numbers do show us, that, when Torre had good starting pitching, and a well manned bullpen, he would not call on the same guys, day-after-day, as much as he did once his pitching staff was inferior (both in quantity and quality).

Therefore, perhaps, rather than blaming Joe Torre for burning out his bullpen, based on the post-2003 and pre-2004 RCD data that we have available, the focus should shift towards what Torre was forced into doing, why he was in that position, and what other options he had (other than to call on the same few pitchers, so often). Perhaps, just maybe, the fault lies with what Torre was given to work with, and who gave it to him, and not with Joe himself?

I'm not saying this is something that we should carry, from here, as fact. One would have to really dig into the RCD data to see which pitchers were being used often, and which ones were ignored, and what the scores of the games were, and the dates of the games, and their impact on the standings, and the pitcher's pitch counts, etc., before they could make a case for something being air-tight here. But, at the least, the RCD totals, during Torre's full time in the Bronx, give good reason to wonder what or who was really to blame for Joe Torre calling on the same guys in the pen, and so often - rather than to just write it off as Joe being clueless.

Sure, "Clueless Joe" rolls off the tongue easier than "Extremis Malis Extrema Remedia Joe." But, it would be a shame to ignore the stats on this one just for the sake of hanging on to a snazzy handle.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 26, 2008 10:04 PM

Comments

Perhaps, just maybe, the fault lies with what Torre was given to work with, and who gave it to him, and not with Joe himself?
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Isn't this basically the conclusion you come to on almost everything? That Cashman sucks, that he doesn't know pitching, and that the team's failures lie on his doorstep?

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2008 02:15 AM

The most plausible conclusion is that unless Torre has the perfect pen he becomes clueless.

As I have said before, the 2004 ALCS was there for the taking, yet somehow Torre used an already overused Tom Gordon with a nine run lead in Game 3.

How is that Cashman's fault?

Posted by: Rich [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2008 03:28 AM

Wow, is this a horrible argument or what? If you actually watched the games, you would know what nonsensical things Torre would do to his 'pen. He wouldn't use what was given to him. A GREAT example, Steve, is 2007, which was one of his worst years yet. Chris Britton, who has never put up bad numbers at the upper level (major or minor leagues) languished in AAA because Torre refused to ever put him in games. Edwar Ramirez, used once (he struck out the side), languished in the 'pen for TWELVE DAYS before his next appearance. So if you want to say, even, that the bullpen guys should 'earn' their next appearance, WHAT MORE CAN THEY DO?

Joe Torre was one of the most clueless bullpen managers in the game. He knew NOTHING of how to manage one, and one of the clearest signs was this year. You can throw statistics at us all you want, but when Torre keeps using shit relievers like Mike Myers and Ron Villone (and even SEAN HENN!) in place of actual solid arms like Britton, then he deserves every bit of the blame.

Your blog is well-written, but being the contrarian: actually expecting third-place finishes, defending a defunct manager, insulting A-Rod (well, okay, you're not so contrarian there), insinuating the second-best second baseman in the game doesn't deserve a 4-year deal, actually thinking KYLE LOHSE would be a 'good fit' for this team, well, you're becoming a laughingstock. It's a long offseason, I know. But doom-and-gloom just on the off-chance that you can crow that you were right in the end, well, that gets real old, real fast.

Anyway - there is very, very little defense for Joe Torre if you actually look beyond the he-said she-said statistics you love to bandy about.

Posted by: Andrew [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2008 03:44 AM

So am I to assume it is generally accepted that using the same reliever on consecutive days is bad? I'm not so sure that a high RCD is necessarily a bad thing in and of itself.

Posted by: Razor [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2008 05:35 AM

Andrew - one question - Chris Britton? Did you see his splits in 2006? It showed that he was a flawed RP and one the league caught on to fast. The O's let him go for a reason - he's not good. Triple-A stats? Great - Jim Brower had great stats last year in Triple-A too. Means nothing. But, if you want to use Britton has your main witness in your defense, then, sorry, to me, YOU'RE becoming a "laughingstock."

Sorry, in general, I don't like to get personal in comments and name-call, etc. But, if you think it's acceptable to do it to me, then, you must also feel that it's acceptable for me to do it to you. If not, then you're not being fair. Right?

Or, is that, the assumption that you're a fair person, "a horrible argument or what?" (your words) again by me?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2008 08:41 AM

~~~Isn't this basically the conclusion you come to on almost everything? That Cashman sucks, that he doesn't know pitching, and that the team's failures lie on his doorstep?~~~

Hey, I'm just walking down roads and seeing where they go - is it my fault that they always lead to the same burning old factory? [wink]

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2008 08:45 AM

~~~The most plausible conclusion is that unless Torre has the perfect pen he becomes clueless.~~~

~~~How is that Cashman's fault?~~~

If a "good" pen is a "perfect" pen, then, yes, Joe is - and it's Cash's fault because he provides the pitchers.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2008 08:48 AM

~~~So am I to assume it is generally accepted that using the same reliever on consecutive days is bad? I'm not so sure that a high RCD is necessarily a bad thing in and of itself.~~~

This is a fair question - and why I suggest you need to drill down on the RCD stats before signing-off on anything. It could be that the pitcher is better when used often. But, we don't know that just based on the RCD numbers alone.

The numbers alone just suggest that we should consider that it's not all Torre's fault. And, that's what I wrote.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2008 08:51 AM

I guess if your looking for someone to blame, then I can't say I disagree with your conclusion. I am a big Cashman supporter, but if you look at the data and the state of the Yankees pitching in the two years you've bolded then it's easy to deduce that maybe it was the person most responsible for the construction of the roster who is most likely to be blamed.

It's easy to pick one or two games and say Torre messed up with his bullpen usage, all managers mess up in one or two games.

I have the same amount of admiration for Cashman and Torre, but in this case I think it's OK to come to the conclusion that Steve has made. IMHO.

Posted by: Garcia [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2008 03:02 PM

Steve, you're losing me.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2008 06:46 PM

Sure, "Clueless Joe" rolls off the tongue easier than "Extremis Malis Extrema Remedia Joe." But, it would be a shame to ignore the stats on this one just for the sake of hanging on to a snazzy handle.
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I agree. I've felt that his bullpen (mis)management strategies were overblown.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2008 10:21 AM