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January 07, 2008
The Other Side Of The Yankees Prospects
Baseball America now has its Yankees Top 10 Prospects list up on their site. I thought it would interesting to list the "Weaknesses" that they have for their Yankees top prospects:
Joba Chamberlain
Chamberlain will need to keep his weight in check, which would help him avoid any recurrence of his past knee, hamstring or triceps tendinitis issues. He needs to maintain the mechanical improvements he has made as a pro, which keep him more balanced and direct his energy toward the plate, rather than side-to-side. He must prove he can maintain his stuff through a full season. His career high for innings remains the 119 he threw for Nebraska as a sophomore.
Austin Jackson
Jackson takes a healthy cut and doesn't have great times to first base out of the batter's box, but he has average speed and has improved his first step considerably. He's still gaining baseball experience, which shows in his pitch recognition and baserunning acumen.
Jose Tabata
Tabata's offensive future still involves some projection, and there's some concern his thickening body could lose some athleticism, rendering him more one-dimensional. Scouts outside the organization chide him for failing to give a consistent effort.
Ian Kennedy
With only one above-average pitch, Kennedy has to hit his spots, but he usually does. At times his curve is too slow, dipping to 69-72 mph, and lacks sharpness.
Alan Horne
Horne's arm action is long, leading to inconsistent release points and below-average command, and it likely contributed to his past elbow injury. The Yankees have shortened his delivery in other ways to compensate, but it's not a correctable flaw and limits Horne's ceiling. He doesn't field his position or hold runners particularly well.
Jesus Montero
At 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, Montero already has grown very large for an 18-year-old. The Yankees say he has lower-body flexibility, necessary for blocking balls in the dirt, and he has worked hard to become a solid receiver. There are mixed opinions about his ability to stay at catcher, and he'll have to keep working on his body and catch-and-throw skills to stay behind the plate. He threw out just three of 32 basestealers (9 percent) in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in his pro debut.
Jeff Marquez
Marquez doesn't have enough power or bite to his curveball for it to be a strikeout pitch, and he's dependent on his defense because he doesn't miss a lot of bats. He'll have to continue to refine his fastball command and have that pitch play up if his curve doesn't improve.
Brett Gardner
Gardner has hit one homer the last two years and doesn't have the swing path or strength to hit for much more. He'll have to prove he won't be overpowered in the majors, and he needs to hang in better against lefthanders to avoid becoming a platoon player. His arm is below average yet playable in center.
Ross Ohlendorf
Lefthanders owned Ohlendorf when he was a starter because his changeup was fringy. He's added a splitter to see if that will help. His command slipped at the outset of 2007 but improved dramatically once he moved to the bullpen.
Andrew Brackman
Brackman's elbow injury turned out to be a torn ligament; he had Tommy John surgery immediately after signing in mid-August. He won't pitch in his first pro game until 2009, which is even more of a setback because he worked just 149 innings in three years at N.C. State.
It will be interesting to see how many of these potential weaknesses become issues for these prospects as they continue to evolve as players.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 7, 2008 03:45 PM
Comments
Thanks for this one, Negative Nancy. Sometimes I wonder if you're secretly rooting against the Yankees! :)
Posted by: Ben K. ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at January 7, 2008 04:34 PM
Gardner blows, how the hell is he on a top 10 prospects list?
And for the record, I think it's totally cool to point out the weaknesses of our "prospects."
Posted by: SteveB at January 7, 2008 05:04 PM
~~Thanks for this one, Negative Nancy. ~~
Hey, never let it be said that I didn't mention the half of the glass that was not full! {wink}
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at January 7, 2008 05:26 PM
Just so you know, I'm pretty sure that all of this is subscriber-only content
Posted by: dan at January 7, 2008 08:20 PM
Subscriber-only content? That was crap. I wouldn't pay for that.
Posted by: ChrisXS at January 7, 2008 11:57 PM
I think those are pretty much on target obviously.
I'm not quiet sure why they rank Gardner so high particularly if they're looking more at upside as they claim. he's going to help the team in some way / shape / form yes. but the very very best case for him is a slightly better Juan Pierre. that's not exactly much of a ceiling.
Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen at January 8, 2008 03:28 AM
Most prospects don't even end up as good as Juan Pierre and you can't expect to have 5 Pujols and 5 Johan Santana's in your minor league system.
So yeah maybe Gardner is only good enough to be Juan Pierre but maybe the Yankees don't have any other prospects who are going to be better than Juan Pierre. Who by the way, happens to be a career .300 hitter who averages 200 hits and 50 SB a season, even though his OBP sucks for a leadoff hitter he still has value. I'd take that over Damon right now.
Posted by: antone at January 8, 2008 10:04 AM
Antone, if you would seriously take Juan Pierre over Johnny Damon, you are, and I'm really trying to phrase this gently, out of your flippin' mind.
Johnny beats Pierre by like, 20 points of OBP and 40 points of slugging. I'm not saying Johnny is great or anything but Pierre is terrible.
Gardner has so little power it's crazy, and if you think pitchers at the MLB level aren't going to challenge him, and reduce his walks, because they know he can't hit the ball out of the infield, well, I don't even know what.
I do advocate using him as a pinch runner when rosters expand, but that's about it.
Posted by: SteveB at January 8, 2008 10:10 AM
SteveB, I wasn't talking about Damon in his prime, that is a no brainer. I was referring to the Damon from last year and what I assume will be his steady decline until he retires.
If that is the case then I would definitely rather have a Pierre like player than Damon and I am not saying that Gardner is going to be as "good" as Pierre but if he has the potential to be as "good" as Pierre than he definitely could have value in the major leagues and is a good prospect.
Which means nothing because he could also be the next Alex Cole, ha sorry couldn't resist that one!
Posted by: antone at January 8, 2008 11:55 AM
we should trade all these bums and hope we get a guy as good and proven as Barry Zito.
Posted by: Travis G. at January 8, 2008 10:40 PM
2007 winshare
Damon = 15 , Pierre = 13
Runs created (baseball reference)
Damon = 83 (5.5 per game) , Pierre = 84 (4.4 per game).. for refernce Melky was 4.3 this season and 5.1 last season
Damon's year was very dissapointing, and it was still a lot better than Juan Pierre, who's probably actually hurting his team more than helping.. that some people still even think he's somehow average / above average in itself is a testimony to how incrediablly overrated he is.
Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen at January 9, 2008 03:43 AM
It seems that some of these weaknesses are contrary to other reports. Biggest discrepancy: Austin Jackson with Avg speed? Wasn't he rated as best athlete in the system? I can understand him not having a great first step but doesn't he have plus CF range?
Any thoughts on the others?
Posted by: Ed B at January 14, 2008 03:38 PM