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January 15, 2008
Projecting The Kids
Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will be 22-years old this season. And, Ian Kennedy will be 23-years old.
Just for the fun of it, I looked at all pitchers in the A.L., from 1973 to 2007, who were either 22 or 23 in a season, where they pitched at least 162 innings and half of their games were starts, to see how they did.
There were 110 such seasons found.
There were some 20+ game winners in this group: Mark Mulder, Scott Erickson, Dennis Eckersley, Roger Clemens, Bert Blyleven and Vida Blue.
And, there were some guys in this group that failed to win more than 9 games in their seasons: Alex Fernandez, Andy Hassler, Bill Wegman, Chad Durbin, Eric Milton, Frank Viola, Glendon Rusch, Hipolito Pichardo, Jason Davis, Jeff Weaver, Jerry Augustine, Jim Gott, Jim Parque, Joe Kennedy, John Henry Johnson, Jose Bautista, Jose Guzman, Jose Rosado, Julio Valera, Matt Keough, Nate Cornejo, Paul Hartzell, Ricky Bones, Roger Erickson, Sidney Ponson, and Steve Trout.
But, on the whole, if you added up all 110 seasons, the average win-loss record for these guys was 12-11.
I still think "the kids" in the Yankees rotation have a chance to win around 15 games, each, if not more, this season - assuming they get 30+ starts. But, man, would it not be a huge bummer for the Yankees if they all went closer to 12-11?
Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 15, 2008 11:09 PM
Comments
Anyone notice this guys numbers:
Mike Mussina: 241in 2.54era 157hits
holy hell
Posted by: handtius ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at January 16, 2008 12:28 AM
36 wins from what would be the back 3/5s of the rotation? I don't think the Yankees have gotten production like that in at least five years. If Wang and Pettitte could win 34 between them (as they did last year), that would give Yankees starters 60 wins + whatever Moose provides in his role. That could very well be enough to win around 95 games.
Posted by: williamnyy at January 16, 2008 07:30 AM
I still think "the kids" in the Yankees rotation have a chance to win around 15 games, each, if not more, this season - assuming they get 30+ starts.
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Do we even want them getting 30+ starts? At an average of 5 IP/start, that's 150 IP each. IPK might be ready for that, and that might be Hughes' cap, but I don't think Joba's ready for that yet. Plus, if they're only pitching 5 IP/start, the bullpen will be WAY taxed. But push it up to 6 IP/start and none of the three kids are ready for a 180 inning season.
Posted by: MJ at January 16, 2008 09:13 AM
Do we even want them getting 30+ starts? At an average of 5 IP/start, that's 150 IP each. IPK might be ready for that, and that might be Hughes' cap, but I don't think Joba's ready for that yet. Plus, if they're only pitching 5 IP/start, the bullpen will be WAY taxed. But push it up to 6 IP/start and none of the three kids are ready for a 180 inning season.
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What are you talking about? Kennedy threw 176 innings last year look for him to be able to throw ~200 (although he probably wont get there). While Hughes didn't pitch as many innings as planned last season his career high is 146. I'm pretty sure he will be able to go a bit above that #. Joba, on the other hand, has career high ip of like 115 or so, meaning he will be on a much more strict limit.
Posted by: keithny at January 16, 2008 10:03 AM
Start Joba in the bullpen April-May and into June, as the Twins did with Johan Santana a few years ago. Then move Joba to the rotation, that'll keep his innings reasonable.
Posted by: Don at January 16, 2008 02:22 PM
35-40 wins from the 3-4-5 guys in the rotation?
Who wouldnt sign up for that?
When was the last yr we had that?
Especially if Wang and Pett do enough as the 1-2??
Remember this team won 90+ games last yr with Igawa, Rasner, Wright, Clippard etc all pitching major innings as starters.
If they get these three kids to perform to a 10-15 win level and get better as the yr goes on. Ill take it.
Posted by: Josh at January 16, 2008 08:53 PM