WasWatching.com

Hi Steve. I'm a long-time reader, first time poster.

Going by the 30+ argument, the general consensus is 170 or so. But 165, being conservative, is solid. Will Carroll's argument about MiLB innings versus MLB innings is reasonable and convincing.

If Hughes is at 165 for the year, he should be the fourth starter. Moose should be fifth, and Joba would be 5.5.

Despite what Verducci says, the innings you allow your young star to throw is still not a perfected science. Sometimes people are abused (like Verlander) and they survive fine. Sometimes the abuse is obvious (Doc Gooden) and you see the results. There's no doubt, though, that a big innings jump has historically led to injury (pretty much the entire post-Girardi Marlins pitching staff went down).

But anyway, your numbers seem about right. While I think they might skip Hughes now and again to keep him fresh and those innings down, the guy they really need to worry about is Joba. If they aren't going to allow him to go over 140 innings, he will be very limited.

In a perfect world, Mussina, in his (probable) final year, comes into camp in out-of-this-world shape and reverts back to '06 Moose and allows them all the flexibility they need with the rotation.

Hey Steve, I think getting 30GS and 170IP out of Hughes would be an amazing accomplishment. Here is something I wrote about awhile back and wondered what your take on it was:

Assuming all things are healthy, what do you think of the Yankees going by a 4-day rest rotation instead of a 4-game rotation and using Pettitte & Wang as 1-2 starters, Kennedy as the #3, Hughes as #4 and Mussina as #5? Assuming they each go the IP/GS they did in 2007 and assuming Kennedy & Hughes each goes 5IP/GS then it would look like this:

Pettitte: 36GS/226IP
Wang: 36GS/239IP
Kennedy: 36GS/180IP
Hughes: 31GS/155IP
Mussina: 23GS/127IP

That total actually adds up to more IP from their starters than in 2007 although by just 6IP, but you get what I'm saying. I feel like it would be a lot of pressure on Wang & Pettitte, but isn't that why are top of the rotation starters in the first place? Plus, asking them to go 225IP each isn't that much to ask. Especially given that the future in Kennedy & Hughes would be protected. The GS for Kennedy looks big, but it would only be 180IP. You can even flip flop Hughes & Kennedy. I left Mussina at #5 because maybe it could keep him fresher by pitching less and this also allows Joba to be in the bullpen for the entire season opening up the possibility that Girardi could use him as a long man in a la Earl Weaver and get him about 100-105IP.

Assuming health for all 5 starters and Joba, why wouldn't the Yankees want to work something like this out right now? It would put the majority of the workload on the horses upfront while limiting exposure to both Kennedy & Hughes while keeping Mussina fresh and shoring up the bullpen by keeping Chamberlain there full time in 2008.

5 ip/start isn't much. Hughes will probably go 150-170. same with Joba.

but even if they only go 150, that allows 25 starts at 6 ip/start. kennedy can go to 195 with the Rule of 30, that allows for 33 starts.

a 5-man rotation as Wang, Pettitte, Kennedy, Hughes and Joba would work if Moose subs for Hughes and Joba alternately about twice for every four times through the rotation.

http://yankeesetc.blogspot.com/2008/01/blog-post.html

~~~what do you think of the Yankees going by a 4-day rest rotation instead of a 4-game rotation ~~~

For the most part, doesn't it, the 5-game rotation, just about work out to be a 4-day rest rotation, anyway? After all, they play just about everyday after April.