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January 19, 2008
How Many Times Has Jeter Helped The Yanks Reach October?
Fragile Freddy's blog notes the following on Derek Jeter:
Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Ironically enough no he did not. Only twice in his career (2000, 2005) have the Yankees finished less than five games ahead of a playoff spot and only three other times have they been less than ten games ahead of a playoff spot (1996, 2003, 2007). Had the Yankees replaced Jeter with a decent shortstop (say Eckstein) they still would have likely made the playoffs in every year except 2000 and 2005.
Obviously he has had tremendous impact on a number of post-seasons however. This type of impact may prove to be more common for players on teams like the Yankees, Sox and Angels as the Wild Card era goes on.
This got me thinking. So, I took Dave Studeman's Historical Win Shares File and calculated Jeter's Win Shares Above Average (WSAA), from 1996 to 2007. Since a Win Share represents one-third of a team win, I then divided Jeter's WSAA by three - in an attempt to determine how many wins Jeter got the Yankees over an average shortstop. Then, I subtracted those Jeter wins from the amount of games the Yankees finished above the team they beat for the post-season. Here are the stats:
Year WS ExpWS WSAA [A] [A]/3 GA [B] [[A/3]-B] 1996 18 17 1 0.33 4.0 3.67 1997 19 19 0 0.00 12.0 12.00 1998 27 18 9 3.00 22.0 19.00 1999 35 18 17 5.67 4.0 -1.67 2000 23 17 6 2.00 2.5 0.50 2001 28 18 10 3.33 13.5 10.17 2002 24 19 5 1.67 10.5 8.83 2003 18 14 4 1.33 6.0 4.67 2004 26 18 8 2.67 3.0 0.33 2005 26 19 7 2.33 2.0 -0.33 2006 33 19 14 4.67 10.0 5.33 2007 24 18 6 2.00 6.0 4.00
Does this data suggest that Fragile Freddy is correct? I'm not sure. But, it appears that Jeter helped the Yankees reach the post-season in 2000 and 2005 - as Freddy suggests. However, it also appears that Jeter helped the Yankees reach the post-season in 1999 and 2004 too.
On the flip-side, if the logic applied is the correct way to look at all this, the data suggests that the Yankees would have reached the post-season during the seasons 1996-1998, 2001-2003, and 2006-2007 if they would have had an "average" shortstop playing in place of Derek Jeter.
But, here, I think you have to take into account the overall strength of the 1998 Yankees, and, how bad the 2006 Blue Jays and Red Sox were (those seasons). Jeter had strong seasons in 1998 and 2006 - and, it should not be his fault that the Yankees had an easy path to October those years.
In the end, I would offer that Jeter helped the Yankees reach the playoffs from 1998-2000 and 2004-2006. And, in 1996-1997, 2001-2003, and 2007, yes, perhaps, the Yankees would have reached October if they had an "average" shortstop in place of Derek Jeter.
Therefore, in total, six times Jeter helped the Yankees reach the post-season and six times he wasn't as much help. That's a little better picture than the one Fragile Freddy paints.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 19, 2008 11:49 PM
Comments
Actually, if you factor in Win Shares, RAAPAEP and WSOWS it actually shows that Jeter is in fact a woman from Nantucket who helped Slovakia put the first sea otter in outer space.
Posted by: baileywalk ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at January 20, 2008 02:19 AM
Agree with bailey, these numbers mean jackshit, point blank
Posted by: antone at January 20, 2008 10:31 AM
The more rigorous argument would be to review every September playoff race and decide when teams ended up mailing it in (because they weren't going to make the playoffs or because they clinched.) Often times, the last 3 or 4 games of the season don't mean anything.
I'd be willing to bet Jeter's WS for every season were vital in getting the Yankees to a point where they had clinched a playoff spot, vice how many spots they finished about the lowest finishing playoff team.
Posted by: j at January 20, 2008 11:06 AM
The game is a bit more complex than that, taking into consideration offensive and defensive contributions as well as those of their teammates.
I'm not going to put much stock in this study...
Having said that, it kinda makes me wonder, who he thinks "contributed" during those years.
Posted by: Raf at January 20, 2008 11:13 AM
Personally, I like this type of study if it's treated as a toy. But I wouldn't use Win Shares -- it's easy enough to get batting wins from B-Ref, which is linear weights based, and defensive runs from zone rating (Win Shares underrates Jeter's poor fielding, generally.) Also, I think it's fair to consider salary. During Jeter's early years (when he made next to nothing), you should just replace his performance with a replacement level player. Through arbitration and during his current $19 million-per-season contract, I would figure out how many wins that money would buy on the free agent market. Jeter was much more valuable to the Yankees when he was making nothing than when New York started grossly overpaying him.
Posted by: Sky at January 20, 2008 11:27 AM
I ran the same study, but instead of assuming an average shortstop to replace Jeter, I spent his salary on the free agent market. Because he makes so much, the Yankees probably would have been better off spending their money elsewhere since 2000. 1999 was one fantastic season, though.
http://skyking162.com/2008/01/derek-jeters-career-yankee-value/
Posted by: Sky at January 20, 2008 04:00 PM
Interesting stuff Sky - thanks for taking the chase on it.
FWIW, I asked a WS expert for some input on this, and this is what they shared:
I think you should use a different baseline than
average, because it's hard to find an average
shortstop. I'd use a replacement level figure of,
say, 70% of expected Win Shares. I think you'd find that Jeter was the incremental difference in a couple more pennants than the one in your table.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at January 20, 2008 04:56 PM
It's definitely an interesting question. I did use replacement level, but avoided Win Shares. Ignoring salary, I found Jeter made the difference in four playoff appearances.
Posted by: Sky at January 20, 2008 07:09 PM
In 2006, Jeter's magic year, while we ended up WAY ahead due to Bostons total choke, we were sweating most of the year. It wasn't until that fated 5 game series that we had some breathing room. And Jetes was a big part of getting us to Boston. Last year, we feared missing the PS until the very end. Jetes and everyone with an above average year helped make 2007 happen.
For the money, he may not be worth it. But the Yankees have never been (in Big George's years) a cost effective team. We went after 'plus' players, even if they were proportionally more expensive.
Posted by: singledd at January 21, 2008 05:18 PM