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January 03, 2008
A's Trade Nick Swisher, Moneyball Class Of '02
From the Mercury News:
The Oakland A's today traded outfielder Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for left-handed pitcher Gio Gonzalez, right-handed pitcher Fautino De Los Santos and outfielder Ryan Sweeney.
In 2002, the focus for many going into and following the first year player draft, was the Oakland A’s – as they had nine picks within the first 98 players chosen - including seven selections before the start of the 2nd round of the draft. In fact, the heavily heralded book “Moneyball” devoted and entire chapter (and then some - or at least it seemed) towards the A’s and their 'genius' in working the draft in 2002. Here's how the A's worked those nine picks:
Nick Swisher – The 16th overall pick in the draft. Signed for a bonus of $1.78 million – which was the 3rd highest signing bonus given to a college hitter taken in the first round of this draft.
Joe Blanton – The 24th overall pick in the draft. Signed for a bonus of $1.4 million – which was the 6th highest signing bonus given to a college pitcher taken in the first round of this draft.
John McCurdy – The 26th overall pick in the draft. Signed for a bonus of $1.375 million – which was the 5th highest signing bonus given to a college hitter taken in the first round of this draft.
Ben Fritz – The 30th overall pick in the draft. Signed for a bonus of $1.2 million – which was the 7th highest signing bonus given to a college pitcher taken in the first round of this draft.
Jeremy Brown – A first round supplemental pick. He was the 35th overall pick in the draft. He signed for a bonus of $350,000 – which was a very low bonus for a hitter taken in this position of the draft.
Steve Obenchain - A first round supplemental pick. He was the 37th overall pick in the draft. He signed for a bonus of $750,000 – which was an average bonus for a pitcher taken in this position of the draft.
Mark Teahen - A first round supplemental pick. He was the 39th overall pick in the draft. He signed for a bonus of $725,000 – which was an average bonus for a college hitter taken in this position of the draft.
Steve Stanley - A first round supplemental pick. He was the 67th overall pick in the draft. He signed for a bonus of $200,000 – which was a very low bonus for a hitter taken in this position of the draft.
Bill Murphy - A first round supplemental pick. He was the 98th overall pick in the draft. He signed for a bonus of $410,000 – which was an average bonus for a pitcher taken in this position of the draft.
So, now, five and a half years later, looking back at this "Moneyball" draft, we can see that only Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton, and Mark Teahen became big league players of worth. And, only Blanton remains with the A's - and the moving van may be heading in his direction soon as well.
I wonder, if, someday, we'll be looking back at the Yankees "big" drafts of 2006 and 2007 and compare them against the fabled "Moneyball" draft from 2002? Will the Yankees' drafts yield the same ratio of productive big leagues? Will it be better, or worse? Will the players remain with the Yankees? Or, like the A's players, will they be moved?
Yes, there is a difference here. The A's had 9 picks in the first 98 slots of 2002. The Yankees had 2 picks in the first 98 slots in both 2006 and 2007. Also, the Yankees had more money to work with - compared to the A's.
And, of course, no one has written a book about the Yankees recent drafts. So, most likely, when it comes to retrospectively measuring the Yankees work in 2006 and 2007, there won't be a hardcover testament to look back on, as is the case now with the A's work in 2002. Too bad. That might have been fun.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 3, 2008 02:22 PM
Comments
You would think Beane could have done better in that draft. Though we should note that the A's are getting GREAT return on Swisher. I'm shocked that the White Sox gave up both Gonzalez and De Los Santos to get him.
Similarly, Beane will probably get a bounty for Blanton.
The bottom line, I think, is that until Beane gets an adequate budget, he'll always be given too much credit for what he does.
Posted by: baileywalk ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at January 3, 2008 03:20 PM
I wonder if Beane might be convinced to trade Huston Street. I think we could afford to give up one of Horne, Marquez, or Betances along with another prospect to get a quality 8th inning guy to allow us to comfortably use Joba in the rotation.
Posted by: Ference at January 3, 2008 03:32 PM
Wow, Gio Gonzalez was supposed to be the Sox's best pitching prospect. Beane sure knows how to swing a trade.
But, looking back on the 2002 draft, and the players it produced for them, I would have to say it was pretty poor, especially since the A's had so many high-round picks.
2006 yielded an amazing amount of quality prospects for the Yankees, even past Chamberlain and Kennedy. It will be nice to look back on, but I would put money right now on the Yankee Class of 2006 creaming the A's Class of 2002.
Posted by: Andrew at January 3, 2008 04:20 PM
It's also worth noting that of that famed Moneyball class, the only 3 guys that had substantial big league careers were Blanton, Swisher and Teahan. Those guys were no super secret Moneyball finds, Blanton and Swisher were consensus first round talents, Teahan a sandwich rounder.
Beane still deserves credit for doing what he did on a limited budget though.
Posted by: Mike A. at January 3, 2008 05:04 PM
The Yankees passed on Gio Gonzalez in the supplemental round of the 2004 amateur draft, before...wait for it...Cash gained authority over the draft.
Posted by: Rich at January 3, 2008 05:12 PM
Gio Gonzalez is also the lefthanded Tyler Clippard. Not that Jon Poterson was a great pick or anything, but there's a reason Gio's been traded 3 times before his 22nd birthday.
Posted by: Mike A. at January 3, 2008 05:21 PM
Point taken, but taking Poterson also cost them Street.
Posted by: Rich at January 3, 2008 07:08 PM
Yeah, losing out on Street really sucks. I lurve him.
Posted by: Andrew at January 3, 2008 07:32 PM
The comments here are pretty ignorant. People, remember that context matters. Study this:
http://tinyurl.com/2zod9r
It looks to me like the A's had the best overall draft of any team that year (excluding the Brewers, but the A's had no shot at Fielder).
Posted by: jonm at January 4, 2008 12:10 AM
It's really easy to talk about how your moves will be genius in the future. It's real easy to say how your team will be good in five years. It's another thing to actually do it. I'm glad I'm not an A's fan. They've been solid in the past, but they have to have a fire sale every 5 years or so. That would be so disappointing to see all my favorite players leave.
Ethan Michaels
http://modernrooters.blogspot.com/
Posted by: Ethan Michaels at January 4, 2008 04:01 AM
The comments here are pretty ignorant.
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Not really. The A's could have had a great draft, but they had a merely good one. They missed out on Matt Cain (taking Blanton one spot ahead of him), and check out the second round of that draft: Joey Votto, Micah Owings, Jon Lester, Jonathan Broxton, Brian McCann.
Posted by: baileywalk at January 4, 2008 09:29 AM
They've been solid in the past, but they have to have a fire sale every 5 years or so. That would be so disappointing to see all my favorite players leave.
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Regarding the "fan perspective," the A's have had a pretty decent run of success. 8 consecutive winning seasons, which includes 4 division titles, a wild card, and 3 second place finishes where they didn't win the wild card.
The A's aren't going to catch the Angels, and they aren't going to win the wildcard. They are in a very good position to be right back in contention once they move into their new ballpark. They could contend earlier than that, actually. I have enough faith in Beane that he will pull it off.
Posted by: Raf at January 4, 2008 11:04 AM
They missed out on Matt Cain (taking Blanton one spot ahead of him), and check out the second round of that draft: Joey Votto, Micah Owings, Jon Lester, Jonathan Broxton, Brian McCann.
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That misses the point, baileywalk. Each of the players that you named went to a different team. Getting all of those players would have been a "perfect" draft for the A's. Name another team who drafted three above-average major leaguers in 2002.
Posted by: jonm at January 4, 2008 12:13 PM
jonm, where does it say I expected them to draft every good player in the first two rounds? My point with that list is that if you're praised to the rafters about your scouting and how brilliant you are in the draft, not taking at least one of those players over the busts they took probably speaks to the validity of those claims.
Scouting and drafting is a tricky business -- especially in baseball when you're often evaluating high-school kids -- but I guess I get rankled by the Billy Beane worship because it's so exaggerated. If you give a newspaper writer an easy story, like how Billy Beane is a genius with few financial means and teams like the Sox, Yanks and Mets "buy" wins, they will run with it. They like simple stories with simple themes because they aren't that talented. But the reality is usually something else.
So they had a good draft. Probably not a great one. And Beane DOES do a good job competing every year. But is he a genius? Are the A's really that good? At least the Marlins, post-firesale, were able to go and win a World Series. Beane can't claim that.
Posted by: baileywalk at January 4, 2008 12:27 PM
Beane can't claim that.
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Because his shit doesn't work in the playoffs :)
Posted by: Raf at January 4, 2008 12:59 PM
So they had a good draft. Probably not a great one. And Beane DOES do a good job competing every year. But is he a genius? Are the A's really that good? At least the Marlins, post-firesale, were able to go and win a World Series. Beane can't claim that.Quote
Point well taken Bailey.Dombrowski had his hand in the Matlin world series victories AND in the Tigers AL pennant win in 2006,where is his hype?The As are competitive (with a low payroll) but other teams like the Rockies and Marlins have made it to the World Series and have won!Beane contention of the playoffs being a crapshoot is a copout as well.Also,Yankee fans want Houston Street,OK give them the players that would be used in the Santana deal,then it's done!I give him credit for squeezing blood from a stone,but his end results are questionable.
Posted by: butchie22 at January 4, 2008 01:28 PM
Beane contention of the playoffs being a crapshoot is a copout as well.
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No it isn't. If it weren't a crapshoot, more teams would be able to do it. If it weren't a crapshoot, there would be a formula for a team to follow that would allow them to win a world series.
As for Dombrowski's hype, he was the GM of the Marlins from their inception to 2001. During that time they've finished above .500 once in 1997. Matter of fact, the Marlins winning the WS proves the crapshoot claim as a team that wasn't even good enough over 162 games to win the division is somehow supposed to be the best team in baseball?
As for the Tigers, he took control after the 2002 season and they've won a pennant in 2002 but also have finished with bad records 3 of the 5 years he was there. Granted, it may be a bit early to tell with his Tiger work.
Posted by: Raf at January 4, 2008 02:34 PM