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December 07, 2007

Moose In '08

From Pete Caldera -

According to the source, Mussina -- who turns 39 on Saturday -- has been participating in a new weight-training and arm-strengthening program. The club also emphasized that Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu should arrive at camp in better shape than they did last spring.

Abreu, who turns 34 in March, has hired a personal trainer. Damon turned 34 last month.

"We're going to do a better job this winter with all of our players, so we can hit the ground running in spring training," Cashman said, without delving into specifics of individual conditioning programs.

"Mike Mussina has been a very big part of our plans over the years, and he's someone obviously that we're really counting on," Cashman said.

As a fifth starter, Mussina could potentially get one start off per month due to breaks in the schedule. Though he's been known to grumble at being taken out of his every-fifth-day routine, Mussina has acknowledged to associates that occasional rest could help his stamina in 2008.

Last year, Mussina went through a brutal August stretch and temporarily was knocked from the rotation. He did not start during the four-game AL Division Series loss to Cleveland.

But heading into this spring, "You would think that he would be one of [our] starters," manager Joe Girardi said. "And obviously ... you have to perform."

Based on his full 2007 season, "I don't think Mike Mussina has forgotten how to pitch," Girardi said. "I still think he can be successful."

So nice of Bobby Abreu to hire a personal trainer for his free agent "walk" year.....

Getting to Mike Mussina, I'm going to make a bold (?) prediction at this time (regarding him). Moose's numbers in 2008 will be about the same, or worse, than what he posted in 2007. Expect less than 6 IP per start, on average, and an overall ERA around five.

Heck, that's basically what Mussina has done the last four years - sans 2006 (which is now starting to look like a guy posting big numbers when he needed them the most...when he was in the last year of his contract).

The Yankees should have listened to me last year.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at December 7, 2007 09:16 AM

Comments

The Yankees should have listened to me last year.
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And done what? Pay $40M for four years of Ted Lilly who proved (yet again) that a tick above average in the AL is a good pitcher in the NL? Or give Gil Meche $55M for five years? I can't think of too many pitchers who were available last year that were worth the money they ended up getting.

Look, I don't like Mussina very much either and I don't think he'll be very good. But if Joe Torre finally found the stones to lift Moose for IPK, what makes you so sure that Girardi won't do it too if it comes to that?

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 09:57 AM

MJ - Lilly's NL numbers in 2007, adjusted, match his AL numbers from 2004. So, that's 2 of the four years where he was a very good pitcher. And, he was above average in 2006. Throw out 2005 as a fluke. Lilly would have been a smart pick-up for the Yankees.

Pay $40 mill? Gee, how much did Igawa cost? Lilly is cheap next to him.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 10:05 AM

Heck, that's basically what Mussina has done the last four years - sans 2006 (which is now starting to look like a guy posting big numbers when he needed them the most...when he was in the last year of his contract).
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2006, he was healthy.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 10:12 AM

Raf - how many starts and IP did Mussina have in 2004 and 2005? You're going to tell me he was injuried in those seasons?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 10:18 AM

2004:
on 6/11 vs. San Diego-in the 400th start and 400th appearance of his Major-League career-was removed from the game after 3.0 innings with tightness in his right groin...Was placed on the 15-day disabled list from 7/16 (retroactive to 7/7) to 8/18 with right-elbow stiffness and missed 36 games...made one rehab start for Triple-A Columbus on 8/11 vs. Indianapolis, pitching 3.0 scoreless innings (2H, 5K)...was reinstated from the 15-day D.L. on 8/18 and started that night at Minnesota, allowing 5H and 4ER in 4.0IP (2BB, 2K) to record the loss in a 7-0 Twins' victory...

2005
did not pitch from 8/30-9/21 with inflammation of his right elbow (missed 21 team games)

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 10:27 AM

Info pulled from Moose's MLB.com page.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 10:32 AM

Point well made Raf.

However, these points then suggest that Mussina was brittle, no? And, then, that too should have been a red flag on signing him, yes?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 10:57 AM

Moose's numbers in 2008 will be about the same, or worse, than what he posted in 2007.
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On the contrary, by your own "logic," Mussina is due for a great year; after all, don't Mussina (and Abreu) "try" to play well only in their walk years?

Posted by: jonm [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 11:05 AM

Age trumps the walk year factor here jonm, I fear.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 11:19 AM

However, these points then suggest that Mussina was brittle, no? And, then, that too should have been a red flag on signing him, yes?
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Maybe, maybe not. Over the life of his 6 year contract, he was bad in only two of them. The case could be made that they were aberrations.

Anyway the Yanks could've gone another direction (Meche/Lily), but for more money/years. I'm sure someone with Mussina's track record could have gotten more money/years.

At that time, the Yanks would have gone with a rotation of Wang, Johnson, Kartsens, Rasner, & ________. Hughes was slated to start in AAA, and I don't think the Yanks had yet won the rights to Igawa.

So the Mussina signing was a reasonable one at the time.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 11:44 AM

I hear a lot of people say Giambi and Mussina will be total garbage next year. How do we know? Each is one year removed from a semi-brilliant season. Giambi had injuries this year. Mike, as far as I remember, did not.

If Mike does in fact come in stronger, and can get his changeup back, why can't his numbers be closer to his '06 numbers (it's not like he was throwing 93 that year)?

In any event, it sounds like Mussina is going to come in handy. He has accepted his role as the fifth starter, which means he can take starts for the big three, who all have inning constraints. So Girardi can judiciously tweak the rotation around Wang and Pettitte and give both Moose and the kids occasional days off to keep them under 200 IP.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 01:28 PM

So Girardi can judiciously tweak the rotation around Wang and Pettitte and give both Moose and the kids occasional days off to keep them under 200 IP.
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Never thought I'd see the day when a manager in Pinstripes would judiciously do anything. Arbitrary was something I was growing so used to! LOL ;-)

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 03:32 PM

Steve

Why do you throw out Mussina's good performance in 2006 as a fluke? If a good player had a bad year wouldnt you be quick to jump on him (aka Abreu, Damon)? Didnt you say we shouldnt retain Abreu because he simply didnt perform very well for the first half of this past season? So apparently a poor half of a season from a normally good player is not a fluke but an excellent entire season from a pitcher who was healthy is a fluke. Explain that logic to me.

Posted by: Ference [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2007 04:39 PM