WasWatching.com

Wouldn't you guess the Sox would win a few more than they did season? It seems like the rumored trades for them take nothing away from their immediate future and they get Santana. And wouldn't they be better equipped for the post-season? Perhaps I'm buying into the hype, but it's hard to be relaxed about the Sox adding Santana.

How do you come up with the 90 win figure? That's much lower than any other proection system that I've seen. Right now the Yankees and Red Sox are at around 94-96 wins. Santana would probably give the Red Sox about three-four extra wins.

~~Perhaps I'm buying into the hype, but it's hard to be relaxed about the Sox adding Santana.~~

Think about it. 20 wins from their pen. 35 wins from Johan and Beckett. 28 wins from Schilling and Dice-K. 12 wins from their 5th starter. That's 95. Anyone who expects more than these numbers is not being realistic.

For the Yankees. 20 wins from their pen. 30 wins from Wang and Pettitte. 13 wins each for Mussina, Hughes and Joba. That's 89 wins. Add one to round it up, that's 90. And, again, anyone who expects more than these numbers is not being realistic.

That's a poor, subjective methodology, Steve. "Wins" are a junk stat; it's much better to use a linear weights system or RCAA/RSAA to project team wins.

SG at RLYW also does good work at projecting team wins.

Hey, I was just ballparking it. It is December, after all, and, anything is just a guess now - even something more saber-friendly.

Hank has it right...we need to stay away from Haren. Read here - http://yankeegm.blogspot.com/2007/12/steer-clear.html

Hey, I was just ballparking it. It is December, after all, and, anything is just a guess now - even something more saber-friendly.
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Fair enough. FWIW, John Beamer @ THT has 96 wins.
http://tinyurl.com/2xd2r9

This is hard to do.The Jays had the second best ERA last half of the season in the AL after Boston add to the fact that Ryan and Chacin(as a sixth pitcher!) both come back.If all goes well the Jays will probably win closer to maybe even 90 this year,if anything.If Wells and Company stay healthy this year unlike this past year,the are a force to be reckoned with.So do the Sox and the Yankees do better this year?Not with Toronto in the same division AND Tampa getting better AND Detroit becoming a better team with Cabrera(but not really with Willis) both the Yanks and the Sox have a tough road ahead.Also, if Santana goes to Boston does he get shelled as per his 7 ERA in Fenway?Girardi is going to be careful innings wise with the Young Three,so how does that effect the Yanks?In that divison,the Jays are the sleeper 'coz if Halladay AND Burnett(a bonafide 1a and a 2a-b) stay healthy and Marcum and MacGowan are for real then the AL East will be an uphill battle.Remember that the Jays came in 2nd in the 2006 season,don't be surprised if it happens again!

Their pitching notwithstanding, the Jays are sorely lacking at the plate. Alex Rios was their best hitter last year and people keep on talking about him being traded. I see the Jays as a team that will struggle to score runs in 2008 and, as a result, I'm not terribly worried about them challenging the Yanks or BoSox this year. Don't let 2006 fool you, the Red Sox only finished 3rd that year because Manny quit on the team and they had a lousy August. The Blue Jays have more holes to fill than JP Ricciardi realizes.

MJ,
A lot of the Toronto hitters not only had off years last year BUT had injuries.I think most of the Jays hitters will come back.2007 was an anomaly offensively for the Jays not the rule.People on talk radio are rating the Yanks behind the Sox and the Tigers in terms of best teams in the AL.The scary thing is,is that 1-12 the Jays have better pitching than the Yankees.The Yankees don't have an Accardo in case of Mariano's exit via injury(Yeah maybe Joba,but he is more valuable as a potential 1c/2a starter this year).They are also talking about trading Glaus or Rios for Lincecum!Can you imagine Doc,AJ,Marcum,MacGowan,Litsch and Lincecum as a starting staff?That's pretty good!The Yanks have a good one and two,Wang and Pettitte, but after that Joba,Hughes and Kennedy are unproven(although I like these young guys and given a chance the Yanks have a potential goldmine on their hands).And behind them is Mussina and Igawa as 6b for Moose/10a for Igawa!