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November 07, 2007

More Arrows Point To A-Rod Joining The Mets

Vince Gennaro rings in on the A-Rod situation, via the Journal Sentinel:

Q. Which teams have enough money to negotiate for Rodriguez?

A. Rather than think in terms of teams "with enough money," I prefer to think in terms of teams where A-Rod can add enough value to pay for his compensation package. Player value is "situational," meaning he needs to be in a relatively large market for a team that is a contender for the postseason - a team for which he either provides insurance to get to the postseason, or puts them over the top. This is because of the significant revenue boost teams get from reaching the postseason (in terms of next year's season tickets sales, broadcast ratings, ticket price increases, etc.). In the end, I see his value being the highest to the Yankees, Red Sox, New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs.

Q. Is he worth $30 million a year?

A. I believe he is worth $30 million per year to the teams listed above for a 7-year deal through 2014. After 2014, two things should have happened that change his value. First, he will likely have already achieved his major milestones, including the all-time home-run record (chasing these milestones are an important part of his value). Second, his performance should be in significant decline as he approaches 40. As a result, his value post-2014 drops to about $15 million per year for the next several years.

Hank Stein says the Yankees are out. The Red Sox will probably stay with Mike Lowell - because Red Light is begging for that to happen. The Cubs don't have an owner.

That leaves the New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, and Los Angeles Dodgers. My money is still on the Mets. If it happens, that first inter-league visit to the Bronx for the Amazin's is going to be some trip.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at November 7, 2007 09:09 AM

Comments

Murray Chass of the NY Times talked about the potential A-Rod suitors and made the Mets seem like they were being discussed because Scott Boras was planting stories as a means to keep at least one deep-pocketed New York team in the picture.

I don't think any arrows are pointing anywhere right now. I don't think Boras/A-Rod have any desire to get a deal done before the calendar flips to 2008 and, as a result, it's too premature to start reading between the lines like this.

If the Mets want to make David Wright a 2nd baseman, 1st baseman, or LF, that's just fine with me though. The Mets were several pitchers short last year. Given the paucity of free agents available and the fact that it would take a lot more than just Jose Reyes to get Johan Santana from the Twins, A-Rod doesn't solve any of the Mets issues for 2008 or beyond. They STILL don't have enough pitching.

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 09:38 AM

Is he worth $30 million a year?
In respect to the yankees He should have asked if A-rod is worth 42 million? Thats what it would cost them a year because of the luxury tax.

Posted by: Rich M [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 11:38 AM

If the Mets get A-Rod, never mind the Red Sox - THEY will be the 'new Yankees'.

Look for them to run the table in '08, then collapse in the LDS because they'll lose Glavine and have an absolutely putrid rotation.

Posted by: Pete [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2007 12:14 PM