WasWatching.com

It's funny -- just as you were posting that I was reading this at noMaas:

"This isn't so much of an idea, but a proclamation. We do not want the Yankees anywhere near Mike Lowell.

First, he'll be 34 at the start of the 2008 season. Second, he's supposedly looking for a 4 to 5 year deal. Third, he's a product of the little league field called Fenway Park. In 2007, he had a .993 OPS at home and a .767 OPS away. Those are very drastic splits.

Yes, he's a 'winner.' He 'plays the game the right way.' He's 'not afraid to get his uniform dirty.' He's 'good in the clubhouse.'

Despite his Intangible Index being off the chart, we would not sign a player through nearly age 40, who was greatly aided by his home park -- especially when there are alternatives available."

If he's looking for a 4 to 5 year deal, I would agree, you have to pass, and pass strongly and quickly - no question.

Would you do three years for $33 million with a team option for a fourth? I might just do that - if my options for third base were limited. At least, I would offer it to ensure the Red Sox would have to offer more - if they wanted to keep Lowell.

====

The Red Sox initial offer is already higher than that. Throwing out $11 million a year for three years to Lowell right now would just be an insult, not an offer.

~~~The Red Sox initial offer is already higher than that. Throwing out $11 million a year for three years to Lowell right now would just be an insult, not an offer.~~~

Ben - got a link for that? Most of what I've seen has said that the Sox won't guarantee a third year at this point.

How much better are those Lowell projections than the numbers that a full-time Wilson Betemit can put up? Sure, I'd probably try to bid up the cost of Lowell for the Red Sox (but even that is dangerous -- the Red Sox could let the Yankees have Lowell and then sign A-Rod).

Overall, I'd stick with Betemit over Lowell.

I'm a Lowell partisan.It is not stealing thunder from the Sox ,that is important but rather improving your own club.It is only money and remember that Lowell knows the "Legacy" Yankees very well and he would be a uniter and not a divider unlike Arod.Remember that it is only money,giving up a ton to the Marlins for Cabrera leaves the Yankees weaker in several different areas.Especially if they give up the Young Three(Joba,Kennedy,Hughes) and Melky for Cabrera.From both a sabremetric AND Scouting perspective,Cabrera is heavy(looks extemely overweight),looks much older than he is,a good hitter,a below average fielder and his value in a commensurate trade is too high in terms of opportunity cost.If the Yankees have to give Lowell three or four years and outbid the Sox,so be it.Better to give up money than see young talent on the cheap perform for the Marlins or the Padres.Look at Omar Minaya's bad trades as an example of giving decent talent up for very shaky reasons.Let Cashman not make the same hasty trades.

~~~How much better are those Lowell projections than the numbers that a full-time Wilson Betemit can put up?~~~

For me, Lowell would be .275/.340/.470 with 15 homers and 85 RBI.

And, I would project Betemit to be .250/.330/.440 with 15 homers and 70 RBI.

It's close; but, Lowell has an edge - plus, I feel better about the Lowell projection as he has a body of work whereas Betemit is really a guess.

Sure, I'd probably try to bid up the cost of Lowell for the Red Sox (but even that is dangerous -- the Red Sox could let the Yankees have Lowell and then sign A-Rod).Quote
Let the Sox have Arod even though Red Sox nation and the Red Sox Brass doesn't want him!I can't see Lucchino AND Epstein devote that much money to one player.Both of them are notoriously frugal because of the rate of return needed to help Henry,Werner and Co pay off their $750 million investment.They have two World Series rings because of Manram and tried to deal him after the Curse was reversed because of the money!The Sox are very big on payroll flexibility,so spending 35 million on one player and having a no-trade clause is against their philosophy.Getting Arod angers their fans AND according to the superstitious,jinxs their ballclub.If they want to tweak the Yankees let them,it will be to their detriment not the Yankees.Cabrera seems more like a Red Sox move,since Henry was the former Marlins owner and they have a cozy relationship with Loria and company.He's cheaper,younger and they have a surplus of pitchers to make a trade,too.The Yanks should worry about keeping those three young pitchers at all costs,regardless of what Toronto,Boston or heck even what the LA Angels of Anaheim,California Planet Earth do!

Actually, Steve, you raise a good point. The 5-year, $70 mil figure I heard being tossed about seems to have come from Lowell's camp. I'm not sure what the Red Sox are offering him, but they're trying to keep it, wisely, to three years.

The Sox could use a hard-line stance on the amount of years -- a la Johnny Damon -- to not re-sign Lowell and go after A-Rod.

I don't want to hand the Sox fifty home runs, but it would almost be worth it for A-Rod to go to Boston just to see how the fans and his teammates react, and how they all get along. It might make the Sox the focus of all of baseball, but it sure would be fascinating.

-I don't want to hand the Sox fifty home runs, but it would almost be worth it for A-Rod to go to Boston just to see how the fans and his teammates react, and how they all get along. It might make the Sox the focus of all of baseball, but it sure would be fascinating.- Quote
Bailey ,in some way Boston has become the focus of baseball without Arod.If you think that things were tough for him here,if he chokes in a big spot his goose will be cooked.Then again,isn't Big Papi his best bud?Ultimately,it was interesting it would be interesting,but I still can't believe that the tightwads(I know that their payroll is the second highest) and stat geeks in Boston will go against their idea of fiscal restraint(which is bogus to a certain degree since they nickel and dimed Shill and gave Drew $70 million) to get this guy.Their payroll will definitely be above the luxury tax and their revenues are about $230 million.Add 40% of 175 million and where is the profit for Henry and Werner?