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Are you kidding me? The Yanks either get one year of A-Rod at a price they were willing to pay him based on the terms of the extension they were offering last Friday OR they get the draft picks. Then both sides can walk away cleanly for 2009.

A-Rod can ask the arbitrator for $35M and the Yanks can offer him $25M. Even if the arbitrator splits the difference, $30M for one year is nothing new for the Yanks. They paid nearly that much for Clemens (pro-rated).

agree with MJ here. I don't see the downside for the Yanks. A media circus? I thin they're used to that. If it gets unbearable for A-Rod and he wants to be traded during the season, then the Yanks can try to work out a deal that will help them. But the money wouldn't be an issue.

Not offering A-Rod arbitration would be the height of stupidity. That can only work out well for the Yankees.

Plus, it puts the ball in A-Rod's court. If he declines it, then the Yankees are officially out of the running until May 15th; they literally can't negotiate with him. And that would absolutely kill the amount of money he would get from any team, knowing that Boras can't bring their offer back to the Yankees to top it.

~~~Then both sides can walk away cleanly for 2009.~~~

This assumes that there's no bad blood already in place. If not, sure, it's 'doable.'

But, think of the fan reaction towards A-Rod, after his opt-out, and knowing that he's using the Yankees for a year only because he could not get his price - and the media harping too. It would make for one ugly season in the Bronx, IMHO.

Even if the arbitrator splits the difference, $30M for one year is nothing new for the Yanks.

As far as I know, there is no splitting in arbitration hearings. The decision is based on which figure the arbitrator thinks is nearer to the player's value. So ARod could going at $40M and the NYY at $30 and if he thinks he's worth $35.1 the Yankees are on the hook for $40M.

That scenario won't happen. A-Rod would sign that one-year $35 million contract elsewhere. He would be a bargain at that amount for anyone including the Yankees.

Of course, they should offer him arbitration.

Just out of curiosity, though, if a free agent comes back to his old team through the arbitration process, can that team trade him? Or would a no-trade clause from the previous contract go back into effect?

This assumes that there's no bad blood already in place. If not, sure, it's 'doable.'

But, think of the fan reaction towards A-Rod, after his opt-out, and knowing that he's using the Yankees for a year only because he could not get his price - and the media harping too. It would make for one ugly season in the Bronx, IMHO.
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So the Yanks should not only pass up a scenario in which their best player might come back but also forego two valuable draft picks just because of bad blood and whatever ugliness might exist in 2008? That makes no sense whatsoever.

Either A-Rod plays for the Yankees in 2008 and those who hated him in 2006 will get to hate him again (familiar territory for him) OR the Yanks get draft picks. I see no downside for the Yankees.

>> It would make for one ugly season in the Bronx, IMHO >>

Agreed. You thought the booing was bad 2 years ago?

Of course they have to offer arbitration. End of 'story'.

And what are the chances of A-Freud and Svengali Bora$$ accepting? Nil.

A couple things... first, Steve, thanks for the plug.

Second, arbitration is a zero-sum thing - the arbitrator gets to choose the player number or the team number, but can't split it. It's also binding - so thanks Marvin Miller! I forget what player said of arbitration that "Either I'm going to be rich, or I'm going to be richer."

Third, would A-Rod as a short-timer be a bit of a burden and incredibly awkward, yes. However, he's been in that situation before, like, this year - so another historic season would do a lot to smooth things over.

Also, with the one-year arbitration deal, there'd be no no-trade, so if the Yankees want to, they can deal Rodriguez for what could be a king's ransom.

Sean - my pleasure on the link. You keep writing good stuff and I'l keep linking to it!

The no no-trade items is a great point. That alone may make this very unattractive to A-Rod - having no control with what the Yankees do with him, if they want to move him during the season.

A very interesting angle on the whole thing. I think the Yankees actually have hand in the situation. But, if A-Rod had any desire to play in NY next year he'd of at least let the Yankees get their offer on the table before deciding he wanted to "see the market". The only logical reason for jumping out before the Yankees got their offer on the table is that he had no intention, under any circumstance, of playing in NY. He wants out of NY and the pressure that goes with it.

I think Boras kind of Blew it here. He should have let A-Rod hear the Yankee number, circulate it in the press, then decide how best to leverage it. Taking the Yankees out of the pool wasn't smart. He must have known the Yankees were likely to offer the arbit. to get some draft picks out of it.

How about this.... Yankees offer arbit. A-Rod accepts...signs a one year....Yanks trade him to Minni for Santana. ...Better yet, send him to the Royals for prospects and let him spend a year in the back of the pack.

I'd still guess an artibtrator would never give a player more than 25MM. It's still way out above all the others. How does it compare to the salaries of the top 3 or 4 in the MVP voting in both leagues? 25MM is at least 20% more than the others.