October 02, 2007
Something To Ponder Until Game One
Paul Brewer, over at BaseballThinkFactory.org, takes an interesting look at the playoff match-ups this season. (If the Vinay Kumar reference made by Paul rings a bell, it's because I just mentioned Kumar's work here the other day.)
This is what Paul has to say about the Yankees-Tribe LDS:
New York’s powerful offense gives them a clear advantage in overall totals, leading in ten categories compared with Cleveland’s. However, Cleveland have a clear advantage in the strong categories, five to one. Nor is this the first time the Bronx Bombers have relied on dominance in the weak categories to carry them through. The result has been two first-round exits, and the catastrophe of 2004. I’d expect more of the same, to be honest.
As I pointed out the other day, the Yankees starting rotation has been weak the past few seasons. Still, the 2006 and 2007 staffs have been better than 2004 and 2005. And, recent history has shown that you might be able to get through the post-season with a thin starting rotation.
Game One could be the key to this series - if the Yankees beat C.C. Sabathia, that takes away a huge pitching edge for the Indians. But, if Sabathia beats the Yankees in Game One, then some of the pressure is off Carmona in Game Two - as you usually expect a split in the first two games, and a win in Game One means you're playing with house money in Game Two.
How many hours now until Game One?
Posted by Steve Lombardi at October 2, 2007 07:53 PM
Paul is using full season stats when some of those players won't even be involved in the series.
Why should Cliff Lee's or Kei Igawa's ERA's and results matter? They won't play in this series.
Why should Josh Barfield's or Wil Nieves' slugging pct and other numbers be used as a measure? Barfield won't see the light of day and Nieves is just a fond memory.
Whether he's right or wrong with his predictions I don't see how these guys' performances have a bearing on anything.
Predictions are worthless, there's no reason to even pay attention to them.
Everyone in the media predicted the Yankees were dead before the season was half over and how did that turn out?
Last year nobody in their right mind would have guessed the Cardinals would have won the world series, most people predicted they would lose in the first round.
To me you can not be an expert on predicting who will win a series. You can look at the stats any way you want and say they favor one team or another but the truth is you never really can know for sure unless the matchup is so lopsided that everyone knows who is going to win anyway.
the truth is you never really can know for sure unless the matchup is so lopsided that everyone knows who is going to win anyway.
And even then it's not guaranteed; Dodgers - A's in 1988, A's - Reds in 1990, to name but a couple of upsets