« Today's Boston Herald | Main | Alexei Ramirez »
September 19, 2007
To Go For The Win, Or Not?
Peter Abraham, today, is suggesting that the Yankees should think like the Red Sox - and punt the chase for first in the A.L. East and elect to rest their pitchers and players for the post-season.
This is what happens with the Wildcard. We saw it with the N.L. West in 1996. There, the Dodgers had a two game lead on the Padres with three games to go - and the Dodgers and Padres were scheduled to play each other in those last three games. Both teams rested their players - since they knew (via the Wildcard) that they both would make the post-season. And, the Padres won all three games and finished one game ahead of the Dodgers in the West that year.
The joke turned out to be on both the Padres and the Dodgers - as they both got swept in their NLDS match-ups after the season.
It's an interesting question for New York this year. I totally see the point of wanting to have your pitchers lined-up and rested for the ALDS. But, I also see the point of having home-field advantage in a 5-game post-game series. The Indians, to date, are 48-28 at home. And, the Angels, to date, are 51-25 at home. Do you really want to have to play one of those teams three times in their own park?
There is an old expression in baseball: Tomorrow, it could rain.
By this, it's meant that you should play for today because if you play for tomorrow, there might not even be a game that day.
And, we all know the saying about how "The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry." (See the 1996 Dodgers and Padres.)
When I consider those two thoughts, and the home-field records of the Indians and Angels, I'm leaning towards saying the Yankees should go for it...and try and win the East (if that's what it comes down to this season). If that means you have to start Hughes, Mussina or Kennedy in Game 1 of the ALDS, so be it.
The 1978 Yankees had to start Jim Beattie in Game 1 of the 1978 ALCS. (This was before there was an ALDS.) And, they had to use Ken Clay out of the pen - and they won that game.
You never know what will happen - and therefore it almost makes no sense to plan for it - in the post-season.
Then again, if I think about this some more, I might change my mind too.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at September 19, 2007 12:18 PM
Comments
The 1978 Yankees had to start Jim Beattie in Game 1 of the 1978 ALCS.
==========
Only because Guidry went on short rest the day prior. But I do see what you're saying.
Personally, I'd rather they try to win as many games as they can, because it seems that when a team "prefers" to get an opponent in the postseason, they lose. The earliest incident I remember this happening was 1997, when most the people I knew were happy the Yanks faced the Indians, because they did well against them at the time.
In the previous entry, I mentioned the 2005 season when Torre elected to go with Wright instead of Mussina. Maybe things turn out different? Maybe Unit's back does better in warm and sunny SoCal instead of cold and damp NY? Maybe Sheffield and Crosby aren't put in a position where they collide?
Granted, there are a lot of variables, but still.
In the postseason, anything can happen.
Like you said, worry about tomorrow's game tomorrow, because it isn't guaranteed.
Posted by: Raf
at September 19, 2007 01:25 PM
The New York Yankees don't play for the Wildcard.
You don't "set up" for anything. You go for it.
Let Terry Francona worry about October in September. The Yanks should worry about October in October.
Posted by: Joel
at September 19, 2007 01:36 PM
Getting the AL East will also likely mean that the Yankees will have the best record in the AL, which gives them the right to choose which division series type they want: Either start on 10/3 (but have a day off before game 2) or 10/4 (with a "normal" schedule).
If the Yankees are able to choose, and pick the extra off day, then whoever starts Game 1 (Wang?) would have to start on Friday, September 28 against the Orioles to be on normal rest. The game 2 starter (Pettitte) could start on the last day of the season (9/30) and be on regular rest for game 2 (on Friday, 10/5). The game 3 starter (Clemens), then, could start the middle game of the final Baltimore series and be on six days rest on 10/7 for game 3.
If the Yanks end up with the other Division Series, then Wang pitches the 29th, Pettitte pitches the 30th, and Clemens is on 7 days rest for game 3. Then you either bring back Wang on short rest or Mussina/Kennedy/Hughes on extremely long rest.
To accomplish these goals, the rest of the regular season would shape up like this:
9/19 Pettitte
9/20 off day
9/21 Wang
9/22 Kennedy
9/23 Clemens
9/24 Pettitte (4 days rest)
9/25 Mussina (5 days rest)
9/26 Hughes (9 days rest)
9/27 Kennedy (4 days rest)
9/28 Wang (6 days rest)
9/29 Clemens (5 days rest)
9/30 Pettitte (5 days rest)
10/3 Game 1: Wang (4 days rest)
10/5 Game 2: Pettitte (4 days rest)
10/7 Game 3: Clemens (6 days rest)
I don't see where the Yankees would be slacking off, and I don't see a problem with giving one or two regulars a rest almost every day, reducing the risk of injury. If the division happens, great, but setting the rotation up for October doesn't take a whole lot of special setup.
Posted by: mehmattski
at September 19, 2007 01:42 PM
I'll repeat a comment I made on another post the other day:
I think the Yankees will play all out to try to win the division. Home field advantage - and the ability to choose the optimal ALDS schedule - do mean something in the playoffs. And what a great story, from a marketing perspective - it would be a HISTORIC division win, from a team that was more than 14 games back and counted out completely by nearly everyone. So I just can't see the Yanks locking up the wildcard and then sleeping through their last series or two.
Posted by: carla
at September 19, 2007 02:37 PM
The rotation is in good shape right now and Torre won't have to do too much tweaking to get a playoff rotation together. Torre has also been doing a good job of giving the regulars a rest by rotating the DH spot and giving players a few innings off here and there.
We don't play for the division, we don't play for the wildcard. We just play to win. Win today's game, win the next game, and win the game after that. We're going to finish this season with 96 wins, the AL east title, and the best record in the AL.
Posted by: christopher
at September 19, 2007 03:41 PM
Absolutely Carla. Especially with Boston likely to mail in the rest of the season. If they (Bos) play like they have been, the division, home field and possibly schedule choice are there for the taking. Wang pitching in the Bronx is much better than Wang pitching on the road. The Yanks can rest a player a day and still be very competitive, as mehmattski points out. They play to win every game and see where they are at the end.
Posted by: Exit9
at September 19, 2007 03:43 PM
Focus and intensity.
You never give away your edge.
Posted by: Tano
at September 19, 2007 11:15 PM
I see the Yankees rotation shaping like this:
9/19 Pettitte
9/20 off day
9/21 Wang
9/22 Kennedy
9/23 Clemens
9/24 Hughes
9/25 Mussina
9/26 Petite
9/27 Wang
9/28 Kennedy
9/29 Igawa (or some other non-regular starter)
9/30 Hughes
I don't think either Clemens or Mussina will get more then 1 more start in the regular season. There is no reason to put Clemens arm at risk for another regular season start. The same goes for Mussina, at his age he can use the extra days off. Clemens has pitched well this season coming off long layoffs, as has Mussina.
The playoff rotation depends greatly on whether teh Yankees have the home field or not and whether they go with a 3 or 4 man rotation. Wang is a much better pitcher at home (10-4 2.85) then on the road
If they don't have the home field I would go with:
10/3 Game 1: Wang (5 days rest)
10/5 Game 2: Pettitte (8 days rest)
10/7 Game 3: Clemens (long rest)
10/9 Game 4: Wang (at home)
10/11 Game 5: Pettite (on the road)
If they have the home field I would go with
10/3 Game 1: Pettite
10/5 Game 2: Wang (at home)
10/7 Game 3: Clemens (6 days rest)
10/9 Game 4: Petite (on the road)
10/11 Game 5: Wang (at home)
