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September 14, 2007

The Hard Cold Math

LyfLines breaks down what the Yankees would need to do to win the A.L. East:

Boston goes 11-4 (.733), they win the East
Boston goes 10-5 (.667), Yanks need to go 16-0 (1.000) to tie.
Boston goes 9-6 (.600), Yanks need to go 15-1 (.938) to tie.
Boston goes 8-7 (.533), Yanks need to go 14-2 (.875) to tie.
Boston goes 7-8 (.467), Yanks need to go 13-3 (.813) to tie.
Boston goes 6-9 (.400), Yanks need to go 12-4 (.750) to tie.
Boston goes 5-10 (.333), Yanks need to go 11-5 (.688) to tie.
Boston goes 4-11 (.267), Yanks need to go 10-6 (.625) to tie.
Boston goes 3-12 (.200), Yanks need to go 9-7 (.563) to tie.
Boston goes 2-13 (.133), Yanks need to go 8-8 (.500) to tie.
Boston goes 1-14 (.067), Yanks need to go 7-9 (.438) to tie.
Boston goes 0-15 (.000), Yanks need to go 6-10 (.375) to tie.

It would not shock me to see Boston play .600 ball the rest of the way, so, then the Yankees would need to go 15-1 (.938) to tie.

That's not going to happen for New York. So, think "Wildcard" and don't let the next three games in Fenway get you too up or down.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at September 14, 2007 09:29 AM

Comments

I could see Boston going 8-7. So it's only going to be the WC this year.

(I'd still rather have Mo available tonight rather than have used him last night.)

Posted by: rbj [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 14, 2007 10:06 AM

If the Yanks can give Boston 3 of those losses themselves, then it becomes plausible. That's a big if but it's not over yet.

Posted by: j [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 14, 2007 11:02 AM

I would say the schedule is a little in our favor as well, as Boston gets Minnesota and Oakland, although we haven't exactly played well against Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

Posted by: j [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 14, 2007 11:09 AM