WasWatching.com

Something tells me that the series later this month against BOS will matter in the AL East race...

There's a race in the AL East?

What's the breakdown between home and road games? Does the team have to travel to the Pacific coast for the games vs. Anaheim and Seattle?

That's a pretty tough slate of games listed. As of this morning, that's 33 games against teams with a .500 record or better, including 17 games against current division leaders (Boston, Detroit, Anaheim) and 3 more against the Indians. 20 games against the top 4 teams in the AL is a really tough battle. Here's hoping the Yanks have it in them to pull it out.

~~~Does the team have to travel to the Pacific coast for the games vs. Anaheim and Seattle?~~~

LA, yes. Seattle, no.

~~~What's the breakdown between home and road games? ~~~

Even split of the 56 - - 28 games at home, 28 on the road.

FWIW, Coolstandings.com, this AM, has the Yankees at 41.7% for winning the WC - and the next best team is the Indians at 17.5%

And, they take into account, schedule, foe's record, etc.

It really does appear that the WC is the Yankee's thing...to win...or lose.

~~There's a race in the AL East?~~

With 56 games left - including 6 with Boston - there's definitely a race. The Sox have 19 road games in August. There's a very good chance that we'll be just a few games out when we sweep them at the end of August. Then we can use September to secure home field advantage.

~~~With 56 games left - including 6 with Boston - there's definitely a race. ~~~

According to CoolStandings, it’s 92.3% certain, at this point, that the Sox win the AL East. So, sure, the Yankees have a shot – but, it’s a less than 10% chance.

I thought the race in the ALE was for second place. Tampa seems to have a lock on the basement, consigning Baltimore to fourth.

~~it’s a less than 10% chance~~

On July 28th, we only had a 2.5% chance and we only had a 4.4% chance yesterday, so things are moving in the right direction!

In late July of last year, we were hovering around the 30% mark and we ended up winning the division by 10 games. Until we are 2 games out with only 1 game to play, I'm not going to worry about Coolstandings.

It's obvious that we have ground to make up and maybe I'm showing some very slight favoritism, but I honestly think we're going to take the division by several games.

~~~On July 28th, we only had a 2.5% chance and we only had a 4.4% chance yesterday, so things are moving in the right direction! ~~~

Except the clock, which says there are only 2 months left.

Those 9 games with the O's are going to be brutal if this past weekend was any indication. They could play spoiler in more than a few races, IMO...

I thought I'd look at Cleveland's remaining schedule, since, as of today, they're our primary competitor.

Minnesota: 10
Chicago: 9
KC: 9
Detroit: 8
Seattle: 5
LAA: 4
Oakland: 3
Tampa: 3
Us: 3
Texas: 2

Seems pretty even. Twins and Blue Jays are close, so those cancel. (Maybe a slight edge for us.) Tribe has 12 collectively vs. Tampa and KC - same as us. (Again, maybe a slight edge for us, as KC has been playing well lately.)

We each play the Tigers 8 times. I view the Rangers, ChiSox and Os as being at about the same level - we each have 11 games against them collectively.

That leaves Cleveland with 2 more games vs. the Mariners; one more vs. the Angels and three vs. the A's against our six games vs. Boston.

Maybe a slight edge for Cleveland overall, but it's pretty close.

We are surely viable in the wildcard. We could have the lead in less than a week if we play the way we did in the past few home games. The ALE possibilities will be more controlled by Boston than by us, but it's really up hill. When you compare the Yanks against Cleveland, we both have 8 vs Det.; we've got 10 vs the BJ's, and the Tribe has 10 vs Minni (maybe a wash, with a slight edge for us). We've got 3 with LAA in LA, Tribes got 4 in LA; we've got 3 with Seattle, Tribe has 5, so slight plus for us, but we've got 6 with Boston, they've got 0!. We do go head to head with the Wahoos with all 3 in the Bronx. I think the reference to how we do against Balt. (and I'd add the BJ's since we play 'em 10 times) is on the money. We've got 9 with the O's vs. Clev's 9 vs KC. I'd rather play KC. Overall .600, plus a little the rest of the way (~92 wins) ought to get us in the wild card. That's 35 to 36 wins and 20 or so losses. We better beat up on Balt. (3/9 are @ Balt.) and Toronto (6/10 are @ Toronto). Seems to me that Det. and Cleveland are both softening up some lately.