August 22, 2007
The Good & Bad Of Mike Mussina
Mike Mussina has made 22 starts for the Yankees, so far, this season. The Yankees have lost 12 of those 22 games started by Moose. Here are some stats on the breakdown of these games:
In the 12 games started by Mussina where the Yankees lost: Mussina averages 4.8 IP per start and has an ERA of 8.16.
In the 10 games started by Mussina where the Yankees won: Mussina averages 6.3 IP per start and has an ERA of 2.57.
This season, Mike Mussina has become what Randy Johnson was to the Yankees last year: A pitcher who's great when he's on, but, one who is terrible when he's off. In a word, Moose is inconsistent.
That's O.K. - if you're the fifth starter in the rotation. I just hope, if the Yankees make the post-season this year, that New York treats Mussina like a fifth starter and only has him pitch in a game, if it's an absolute must - because, at this stage of his career, he can't be trusted to come through for you.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at August 22, 2007 10:20 AM
I think you also need to look who he has been "great" against this season. The only half-decent teams he pitched well against in the last 2 1/2 months are Cleveland (7.2 IP, 2 runs, but 8 hits) and Arizona (7.2 IP, 2 runs). That's it. His "great" stretch included twice against KC, twice against CHISOX, once against Oakland. Even Tampa Bay knocked him around twice. I can't trust Moose season. Even when he's not disastrous he looks like he flirts with disaster every start. I hated last night because Torre made the right move with Edwar, but he just couldn't stop the unstoppable beast that is Garrett Anderson v. NYY. The thing that stings is that if Edwar had gotten G.A., I really think they had a shot. Can't wait to get done with this series, it's like every game is more brutal than the last.
That's O.K. - if you're the fifth starter in the rotation. I just hope, if the Yankees make the post-season this year, that New York treats Mussina like a fifth starter and only has him pitch in a game, if it's an absolute must
I really don't see him starting before Wang, Pettitte and Clemens, but stranger things have happened. I guess it would depend on how Torre sets up the rotation.
Things will get interesting in the next few weeks, what with Detroit, Boston, Seattle, and Baltimore coming up on the schedule. They really need to beat up on the D-Rays when they meet again.
Separating Moose's performances into groups based on whether the Yankees won or lost isn't helpful. Because the Yankees have a good offense, more of Moose's mediocre starts will get thrown in the Win pile than if he pitched for the White Sox, for example. That would bump up both is ERA in team wins AND in team losses.
If you really want to measure consistency, use something like Game Score to judge each start and then find the standard deviation. Moose's consistency is line with the rest of the league.
Moose in 2007: 16 STDEV
All SP in 2007: 17 STDEV
Sure, Moose has a 5.37 ERA. That's not good. But inconsistency isn't the issue. The actual issue is a high BABIP (.340) -- Moose's FIP is a reasonable 4.27.
Posted by: Sky at August 22, 2007 01:12 PM