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August 08, 2007

One Sox Not Shocked

From the Boston Globe -

And there they are, the New York Yankees, now a mere five games behind the Sox, the closest the American League East race has been since May 2, and a far cry from the 14 1/2 games the Bombers were in arrears back on May 29.

"I'm not surprised," said Wakefield, who didn't record an out before being dismissed in a five-run Angels fifth in which the home team sent 11 men to the plate. "They're too good a team to be playing as bad as they were. We've been playing .500 ball for the last month and a half. We've got to pick up the pace."

Things have really turned around for the Yankees since the end of May. Maybe team meetings do help sometimes?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at August 8, 2007 10:52 AM

Comments

Maybe team meetings do help sometimes?
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Not having as much dead weight helps too ;)

RCAA
Kevin Thompson -1 *gone
Jose Molina -2 *replaces Nieves
Andy Phillips -3
Johnny Damon -4
Melky Cabrera -5
Josh Phelps -5 *gone
Miguel Cairo -7 *gone
Doug Mientkiewicz -8 *DL, hopefully gone
Wil Nieves -9 *gone

RSAA
Colter Bean -2 *gone
Phil Hughes -2 (may turn it around)
Matt DeSalvo -3 *gone
Edwar Ramirez -3 *gone (may be back)
Chase Wright -3 *gone
Tyler Clippard -4 *gone
Jeff Karstens -6
Kei Igawa -13 *gone

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 8, 2007 11:20 AM

Raf, I know you're not saying this but your chart gives me an opening on a point I've always wanted to make.

"Melky Cabrera -5"

If we trusted stats alone without context, we'd be as bad as if we trusted scouting alone, without stats. Your chart may say that Melky's hurting the team, but where was his RCAA number six weeks ago? Has he improved? Would you say that he's making a positive contribution to the team over the past month or so?

Like I said before, I know you're not saying anything about this but sometimes the pure stats guys and the pure scouting/team chemistry guys forget that a small dose of the other side helps too.

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 8, 2007 11:48 AM

MJ, his numbers have been trending upwards.

IIRC, he was sitting around -5 or -6 back then (6 weeks ago). Bobby Abreu is up to 1 and he had similar totals to Melky. Cano was further than both, IIRC and he's at 7.

Players have hot and cold months. It's the nature of the game.

I ran the numbers not too long ago and despite the 4th OF rep, Melky could be starting for a lot of clubs in the AL.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 8, 2007 12:20 PM

Not only could Melky be starting for a lot of clubs in the AL, he IS starting for the Yankees, over established vets like Matsui/Damon. I don't want to overrate him but it's hard for me to watch him and believe that he's a RCAA -5 when he has been producing XBH and scoring runs over the past several weeks. His defense isn't too shabby either.

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 8, 2007 12:38 PM

The thing with Melky is that while he has good numbers for a centerfielder, his numbers wouldn't be so great if he was playing, say, first base.

Still, it's hard to believe Melky is a below-average player by any metric. His OPS+ is 115, and his WPA over the average centerfielder is 1.5. That's the definition of above-average.

RCAA is a nice metric, but it's not one I would use to see which players are above-and-below average, as I don't think it takes position into account.

Add in Melky's stellar defense, and he's even more valuable. He beats CoCo Crisp in pure value, at any rate, although that might not be saying too much.

Posted by: Andrew [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 8, 2007 01:41 PM

For some added context.

Since June 1, a period encompassing roughly 60 games (a nice sample size, almost 40% of a season) there are 6 teams in the AL with a winning record.

Yankees 40-21
Seattle 35-24 - 4
LA 32-24 - 5.5
Detroit 33-25 - 5.5
Toronto 31-27 - 7.5
Boston 32-28 - 7.5

5 teams in the NL have winning records, none closer than 5 games worse than the Yanks record.

All the losers who give up on the season should wake up to what is really going on. After the perfect storm of injuries, parallel slumps, and just plain bad luck, the Yanks have asserted themselves as the best team in all of baseball, by a considerable amount.

They will win the East.

Posted by: Tano [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 8, 2007 04:35 PM

For some added context.
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Also should be noted that the Yanks have been underperforming their Pythag projection by 7 games. Of course, I should say that the 2004 Yanks overperformed by 12 games...

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 8, 2007 05:11 PM

Amen, Tano.

Posted by: Joel [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 8, 2007 05:19 PM

We can't have the Yankees underperforming their Pythag projection! What will the neighbors think??

-How abt the fact that Melky is hitting .303, over .400 in his current 13-game hit streak and makes play after play in the field? Does any of this matter or do only new-fangled stats made up in some Bill Jamesian laboratory by people who likely never picked up a bat count? Forget abt. RCAA, and VORP and WPA (wasn't this an FDR initiative?)for a minute and actually watch the kid play. I know this is a revolutionary idea, but it might be crazy enough to work.

Posted by: Josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 8, 2007 06:13 PM

Forget abt. RCAA, and VORP and WPA (wasn't this an FDR initiative?)for a minute and actually watch the kid play.
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Funny that you denounce stats, yet use them to bolster your claim...

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 8, 2007 07:02 PM