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August 10, 2007
Beantown Media Turning On Big Papi?
From the Boston Globe with a hat tip to BrothersJudd Blog -
Of the 39 times there have been 50 home runs in a season, one slugger hit 70 the next year (McGwire in 1998). Three times a player hit at least 60 (Sammy Sosa twice and McGwire). Six hit at least 50, 15 at least 40, and nine at least 30.
But this season, there may be a fourth 50-homer hitter who fails to crack 30 the following season, and he plays for the Red Sox: David Ortiz.
Consider this: Baseball-reference.com tracks a stat called "Close and Late," which measures a hitter's performance under the following conditions: The game is in the seventh inning or later, and a team is tied, ahead by one, or the tying run is at least on deck. In 2006, in close and late situations, Ortiz led the majors with 11 home runs, one more than Albert Pujols of the Cardinals. He was second in RBIs to Atlanta's Jeff Francouer, 33 to 29. In 2005, Ortiz also led the majors with 11 homers and was first in RBIs with 33.
Half a page in the media guide is devoted to Ortiz's walkoff hits with the Sox: 15, including two epic home runs in the 2004 postseason.
There have been no new entries this season. In close and late situations, Ortiz has no home runs and three RBIs.
Looks like Boston Boy Wonder G.M. Theo "E" should have asked Joe Sheehan before signing Ortiz to that big extension last year when Joe said "...there seems to be a powerful force that drives twentysomething DHs out of the game quickly. The inability to play a position on the field seems to be a leading indicator of a rapid, early decline."
Perhaps Big Papi, from 2008 to 2010, will be to the Sox what Jason Giambi has been to the Yankees since 2004?
Posted by Steve Lombardi at August 10, 2007 09:51 AM
Comments
Perhaps Big Papi, from 2008 to 2010, will be to the Sox what Jason Giambi has been to the Yankees since 2004?
Are you sure you really mean this? Giambi missed most of 2004, sure, but in 2005 he was the second best hitter on the team (behind A-Rod's MVP season) and the best hitter in 2006...
Posted by: ccaviness
at August 10, 2007 11:01 AM
"Jason Giambi has been to the Yankees since 2004?"
Including this year, where the numbers are deflated because he played injured for 3 weeks, Jason had about an average 3 year OPS of .950.
Is this bad for a DH?
I don't know if this particular heel injury can be related to age. Actually, it is somewhat related to nutrition.
They are both one-dimensional players, although Giambi is probably better in the field. I don't know about on the bases.
$12m is not a lot to pay an impact player these days. Unless Papi has a really serious decline, he will probably earn his pay.
And what's with this years 'close and late' numbers?
The guy still has an OPS of .992! Thats hardly a dud!
Posted by: singledd
at August 10, 2007 11:09 AM
Stuff like that is why I chafed last year when everyone said A-Rod was the definition of unclutch. All of a sudden the posterboy for what we all wished A-Rod was more of isn't all that we'd hoped for? Give me a break. Barry Bonds SUCKED IT in the playoffs for over a decade before he absolutely humiliated opposing pitchers during the 2002 playoffs. Stuff happens, players go through peaks and valleys, etc. Big Papi - much as I despise him as a member of the opposition - is just fine and still a scary hitter. He's been banged up all year. It's pathetic that people are walking away from him this year the way people walked away from A-Rod last year...
Posted by: MJ
at August 10, 2007 12:54 PM
Jeff Francouer: clutch god.
Posted by: zac
at August 10, 2007 02:11 PM
Oh yeah, the 2002 Barry Bonds is a fine example to bring up. DOH! When walked to the plate each time as if he still had a needle in his butt.
Posted by: Don
at August 10, 2007 02:13 PM
The entire paragraph;
"So what to conclude? Honestly, I was a lot less worried about this contract before I saw the list above. Ortiz is certainly better than most of the players above, but there seems to be a powerful force that drives twentysomething DHs out of the game quickly. The inability to play a position on the field seems to be a leading indicator of a rapid, early decline."
The players mentioned in that list?
Ollie Brown, Carlos May, Craig Kusick, Mitchell Page, Otto Velez, Roy Howell, Mike Ivie, Willie Aikens, Ken Phelps, Ron Kittle, Harold Baines, Larry Sheets, Jose Canseco, Greg Vaughn, Bob Hamelin, Reggie Jefferson, Tim Salmon, Erubiel Durazo, Brad Fullmer & Travis Hafner.
I wouldn't worry too much about Ortiz.
Posted by: Raf
at August 10, 2007 02:40 PM
Oh yeah, the 2002 Barry Bonds is a fine example to bring up. DOH! When walked to the plate each time as if he still had a needle in his butt.
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A bit off-topic, but ESPN went through Bonds' home runs and it was hilarious how he was this skinny little guy (he had a similar frame to Jeter) until the late '90s. They show skinny Barry in '98 and then monster Barry in 2001-2002 and of course don't mention that he's now twice the size. Orestes Destrade amazingly made the excuse "you become a better home run hitter as you get older" -- because you know the long history in baseball of people hitting more bombs at 40 than at 30.
Posted by: baileywalk
at August 10, 2007 03:34 PM
Or in Destrade's case, you become a better home run hitter as you get further away from the majors, like...Japan. How do these guys get these gigs? Really good agents?
Posted by: JohnnyC
at August 10, 2007 03:54 PM
Orestes Destrade amazingly made the excuse "you become a better home run hitter as you get older"
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Regardless, it's conventional wisdom in baseball that a player adds power to his game as he gets older. The theory is that a player becomes more disciplined and physically mature (what's the peak now, 27-35?) and is able to wait for "his pitch to drive out the park."
Whether it's true or not could be an entirely different story.
Posted by: Raf
at August 10, 2007 03:59 PM
How do these guys get these gigs? Really good agents?
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I've often wondered that myself. Then again, these guys entertain more than inform. I guess if that's what the people want, then that's what they get. I watch ESPN to catch up on scores and check highlights. That's about it.
Posted by: Raf
at August 10, 2007 04:02 PM
Although, considering the non ex-jocks working on ESPN these days, I should go easier on Destrade and his brethren. Is it just me or does Karl Ravech reach new depths in the concept, snide?
Posted by: JohnnyC
at August 10, 2007 04:21 PM
does anyone else get static when they put the Yes network on? or is it me
Posted by: Corey
at August 10, 2007 04:34 PM
Unrelated..Ken Rosenthal has Padres awarded waiver claim on Igawa. Forty-eight hours to make deal.
