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August 13, 2007

August 13th Yankeeland Pulse Check

OK, where are we this morning?

In the A.L. East, the Yankees now trail the Red Sox by just 4 games. In the Wildcard chase, New York is one game back in the loss column of Seattle. The Yankees have 45 games left this season.

Yes, the 2007 Yankees are in the race for a post-season spot, as you read this on August 13th.

But, Tim Marchman states the case that this race will be a nail-biter. However, in Boston, Curt Schilling is thinking that the Red Sox are in the need for some answers - via the Boston Globe:

"[The Yankees are] playing a whole lot better than we are right now," said Curt Schilling, who was in line to win for the first time since coming off the disabled list last Tuesday until Gagne coughed up another lead. "It's that simple. They're winning, we're not. But the answers are in this room and we're going to find them."

Then again, services such as CoolStandings.com offer that the Yankees only have a 16.4% probability of winning the A.L. East compared to a 60.4% chance of winning the Wildcard - both as of today.

Me? I have little doubt that the Yankees could, and should, win the Wildcard this season. If they don't, it will be their fault, and, their fault alone.

Now, the A.L. East is a different animal. If the Yankees can cut the Red Sox' lead down to three games, or less, and keep it there (or improve it, from their perspective) by August 28th, then I think we'll be seeing the Yankees in first place by September 18th or sooner.

The next two weeks will be the kicker as the Yankees have to play the Orioles 3 times, the Tigers 8 times, and the Angels 3 times, before they host the Red Sox in the Bronx on August 28th. That's a lot of games, but, it will go fast and August 28th will be here before you know it.

It will be here faster than Carl Pavano's ad on eBay will pop up where he's selling his 2007 World Series ring, should the Yankees win it all this year.

If the Yankees do win the A.L. East this season, it will be the third season in a row where Boston choked. In 2005, the (first place) Red Sox lost 12 of 18 games from June 27th to July 18th. And, in 2006, the Red Sox lost 21 games in August (and went 8-21 on the month). Those 21 losses tied the all-time record for losses in a month by a team that started the month in first place. (Boston held a one-game lead over New York at the end of July 2006.) And, this choke will be of historic proportions as well.

Remember, no team in history ever has been 14½ games out before June and come back to finish first. It will be fun to see what happens in the A.L. this season, now, huh? Tell me what you think.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at August 13, 2007 09:50 AM

Comments

Guess you forgot all about this, Steve:

http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2007/06/its_not_happeni.html

Posted by: The Sporting Brews [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2007 11:03 AM

damn you sporting brews, i had just found that link and was about to post it myself. i was going to go with the headline 'it is happening'.

Posted by: adam [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2007 11:07 AM

I know guys like Marchman need stuff to write about and have to make a living. But frankly, I'm tired of all of the projections, analysis, etc...of the rest of the season. Just about all of these so-called "experts" had the Yanks dead and gone 6 weeks ago.

Now we get the revisions, the qualifications, and the tempered language. The reality ladies and gentleman: these guys know about as much as we do and can't predict crap.

Posted by: Joel [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2007 11:18 AM

You can go back and see my comment around that time that there was a lot of time left, that the Twins did it just last year. The Yankees can catch the Sox, and I think they will. The young players have pushed the veterans (see Damon, J and Abreau, B) to step up. ARod has been great, but how good has Matsui been since the break!! This tough stretch, and Torre's juggling of lineups and the young arms will be key. I do worry about the bullpen depth with the Yankees. But it does feel good for now to see winning and see how a bad trade deadline move has hurt the Red Sox...

Cut Steve some slack, he wasn't the only one that gave up in May...

Posted by: wally26 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2007 11:25 AM

Under 500 at the break, a lot of us had those thoughts creep into our heads. It's normal. But it's hilarious to read in a red sox blog after last night's latest choke job by Gagne and Millar's walk-off HR, that - and I quote - "the season's not over yet." This from a fan whose team still leads the division by 4 games! They see the writing on the wall. The thing that stands out in my mind is Jeter quoted in the Post when 12 games out - asked whether the Yanks can win the wild card, he says "we're trying to win the division." You gotta love that guy - that's exactly what they will do.

Posted by: Exit9 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2007 12:09 PM

I'm just happy at what I'm seeing lately, I'll leave it at that....don't want to trip over my own dick, not yet at least.

Red Sox fans have been doing that all year, I don't want to be like them.

Posted by: Garcia [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2007 01:20 PM

Even when the Yankees were down by more than 10 games they were still scoring more runs than the Red Sox, which is why I felt they would contend for the division no matter how far gone people like Steve said they were. As it stands now, they've score 97 MORE RUNS THAN THE RED SOX this season. Things were bound to catch up to that.

Posted by: RichDank [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2007 02:08 PM

~~~Guess you forgot all about this, Steve:

http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2007/06/its_not_happeni.html ~~~

I'll answer that in an entry now.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2007 02:14 PM

While I'm happy the Yankees have closed the gap, they still aren't in first yet, and there are a couple of other teams neck & neck for the wild card. I'm not resting easy yet.

Posted by: rbj [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2007 02:31 PM

Just secure the wild card first, worry about the Bosox later. Just as long as the Mariners win the AL West and the Angels go home early. So for me, the wild card is good, as long as the Angels aren't in for them [Yankees] to play.

Posted by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 13, 2007 05:20 PM