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August 07, 2007
2005 All Over Again?
The Yankees and the Red Sox have each played 112 games so far this season - and New York trails Boston in the standings by 6 games.
In 2005, after 112 games played for New York, the Yankees trailed the Red Sox in the standings by 5.5 games (with the half game due to Boston having played 113 games when the Yankees reached 112).
Pretty interesting how close 2005 and 2007 are (at the 112 game mark for New York) - in terms of the standings, teams, and results. They almost mirror each other.
Back in 2005, from the 112-game mark, the Yankees won 28 of their next 39 games, while the Red Sox went 22-17, and New York took over first place on September 21st.
So, I would have to admit that it's possibe for the Yankees to comeback and finish first this season - based on what we just saw two years ago.
Will it happen again? What do you think - are the Yankees going to play .720 baseball over their next 39 games (like they did in 2005)? Looking at their schedule, it seems extremely tough - but, not impossible. Come September 18th of this year, we'll know the answer.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at August 7, 2007 12:41 PM
Comments
I should add on to this entry that both New York and Boston have been red hot over their last 17 games. The Yankees have gone 13-4 whereas the Red Sox have gone 12-5. Obviously, for the Yankees to catch the Sox, New York needs to stay hot and Boston needs to cool off. If the Red Sox continue to play .700 baseball for the next 39 games, the Yankees will never catch them this year.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at August 7, 2007 02:16 PM
It would be great to see history repeat, but I wouldn't bet on it. Boston is just too good.
Posted by: David at August 7, 2007 02:23 PM
I'm not sure what we'll do over the next 39 games or the next 50 games, but you have to love our schedule. Yes, it has some tough stretches, but we have 20 games left with all of the teams we need to beat (Bos, Det, Cle, Sea). Can't ask for anything more than that.
As for a prediction, I think we overtake 1st place in late August/early September and wrap up home field advantage in the last week of the season. Boston will lose to Johan Santana on the last game of the season and miss the Wild Card by one game. Detroit wins the Central, Angels win the West, and Seattle wins the Wild Card.
Posted by: christopher at August 7, 2007 02:55 PM
The next three weeks do indeed appear tough:
However, CLE has cooled and DET is nearly in a free fall.
Posted by: Jason O. at August 7, 2007 03:40 PM
It's still wide open, but I agree that how Boston plays will be critical to having a chance in the division. Gagne was a good pick-up for the Botox. We could have used someone like him, but not for Melky.
Just keep winning. The wildcard is fine. Back in May we'd have killed to just have a shot at the playoffs (still would). The real problem is the bullpen. If Vizcy slips some, we are sunk unless there is magic in the minors. With the exception of WoKiWang, any night the starters give us 6 is a good night. Who has the 6th when we need it (most nights) and the 7th (every night)? What we have ain't good and what we are getting ain't proven. Maybe Rasner and Karsten will contribute before it's over. Problem with those two is not enough strike outs. I'll bet that's the one thing keeping Cash and Torre awake at night.
Keep your eye on the games up till the rosters expand. We are sitting pretty after that, but how we perform up to that point will probably determine if we are heading to the playoffs.
Posted by: #15 at August 7, 2007 04:24 PM
Yanks probably don't take the division, but Baseball Prospectus not only makes them the leader for the Wild Card, they have their chances of winning the Wild Card as greater than 50% for the first time in...well, just about forever.
Posted by: Evan3457 at August 8, 2007 01:47 AM