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Steve - What's the over/under as to how many replies this post generates? Let's put the line at 20, I'll take the over.

I have never seen any one player, in all major sports, who generates so much attention and opinions that are both positive and negative at an equal rate.

This should be fun.

BTW, I hope ARod stays - if it's money he wants then the Yanks have a lot of that.

~~~What's the over/under as to how many replies this post generates?~~~

I'm thinking 32.

The Yankees will sign Alex to six years, 185 million. Count on it.

Part of the reason why the Yankees have players like Miggy Cairo, Wil Nieves, Andy Phillips and Kevin Thompson on their roster is because of the contracts due to players like A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi, Abreu, Damon, Matsui, etc.
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What proof is there of this? What utility-type player was out there for the taking at a few million a year, but the Yankees were unwilling to meet his demands? The Yankees seemingly overpay everyone -- even their utility players and specialty bullpen guys (Myers got a bump in pay coming here).

The Yankees spend money -- they spend more money than any other baseball team BY FAR. And nothing slows them down. The money they pay Jeter, A-Rod, Giambi, etc., didn't stop them from giving Roger Clemens a million A START. So I don't think it's going to stop them from giving a backup infielder a few million A YEAR.

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"The Yankees will sign Alex to six years, 185 million. Count on it."

I sure hope this doesn't happen. Almost 31 million dollars a year, stretching out till 2016, when A-Rod will be 40? That's scary.

I'm thinking $130 over 4 years. That's the equivalent of a 7 year, $211M contract for ARod, but only a 7 year/$190M for the Yankees

Actually I thought that the Yankees are only paying $16M per year for the next 3. I could be completely wrong about that, or be misinterpreting the contract details. Anyway, in that case it gets even better for the Yankees - a 7 year, $178M contract, about $25M per year.

Steve, where did you get the $19M/$20M/$21M numbers from?

In any case, I still think the chances of him opting out are next to nothing. He has to keep the contract to keep the Texas payments, which will allow him to get more money from his team, whether it's the Yankees or someone else. If he wants to go somewhere else, the Yankees will trade him.

It would be idiotic for him to opt out.

I disagree with the premise that the Yanks have a weak bench because of the money we give A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi, etc. If the Yanks can tie up $100 million in Pavano, Igawa, and Farnsworth, then they certainly can find a few mil for quality bench players. Our lack of a good bench comes down to the players who were available in the off-season. Who should we have signed? Aurilea? Fasano? Sierra? Bernie? It wasn’t like there was a long line of all stars who wanted to take a salary cut to sit on our bench.

Regarding A-Rod’s potential contract, the question isn’t whether he’s worth $27-30 million. I think most fans would agree anything in the low $20’s is reasonable, so the question really is is he worth an additional $4-7 million a year? The Yanks shouldn’t let the greatest player in baseball walk because of a difference of $4-7 mil. From an economical standpoint, there’s no question that he brings $30 mil in revenue to the Yankees. I think you can make a strong case that A-Rod is the most popular Yankee among fans under 18. He brings in a ton of money and a ton of fans. Also, the Yankees are no longer just a team – they are a brand name. With a new stadium opening and increasing competition from the Red Sox (and the Mets to an extent), the Yankees need to continue to develop that brand name. A-Rod will help them do that more than a decent back up catcher.

Now, with that said, if you want to argue that the Yankees would be a better team by investing the money elsewhere, that’s fine. But from a pure economic standpoint, A-Rod is certainly worth $30 mil a year. Something in the 5 year/$155 mil range sounds about right to me.

I think they will give him an extention, keeping the existing contract (subsidized by texas), adding a 3 year at 20-25 per year,with some sort of option year or even two tacked on at the end.

Also, maybe the yanks should look to trade Damon for Helton. Colorado dumps their albatross of a contract taking back a smaller one. Helton plays 1B for a year and a half and then takes over Giambi's slot as the wildly overpriced DH with the burdensome contract. The yanks could even throw in a DeSalvo, Clippard or Steven White if they absolutely had to. But Damon does not seem to have a place on this team, especially if Giambi ever comes back...

I think this makes more sense than trading for Texiera. It also would not cost any of the high ceiling prospects: Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, Horne...

Guys, if the fact that Nieves, etc., are on the team is not proof enough that the Yankees can't afford better options for the bench, now, then what is it proof of - that Cashman is an idiot?

~~~Steve, where did you get the $19M/$20M/$21M numbers from?~~~

See: http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2006/12/market_drew_imp.html

~~~I think they will give him an extention, keeping the existing contract (subsidized by texas), adding a 3 year at 20-25 per year,with some sort of option year or even two tacked on at the end.~~~

Then they have 3 months to get this done. Because, at season end, if he opts out, then the Texas money goes away. The minute that he opts out, that contract is gone and Texas is off the hook for the dough. If the Yankees want to extend Alex, and keep the Texas money, they need to get him to agree to an extension before he opts out. Will Boras go for that?

~~~Guys, if the fact that Nieves, etc., are on the team is not proof enough that the Yankees can't afford better options for the bench, now, then what is it proof of - that Cashman is an idiot?~~~

That's a bit of revisionist history. It's what Christopher was saying, the Yanks tried to get Greg Zaun to be their backup catcher - Steve, you even had a post on that - and then the Blue Jays let go of Molina and Zaun went back to the Jays. He wanted to sign with the Yanks, but he wanted to start too. The Blue Jays gave him the money and the starting position. Does that make Cashman an idiot? I don't think so.

What about someone like Toby Hall? Granted, he's not great. But, better than Nieves. Wasn't that all about money?

Guys, if the fact that Nieves, etc., are on the team is not proof enough that the Yankees can't afford better options for the bench, now, then what is it proof of - that Cashman is an idiot?
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I'm not ready to call him an idiot, but given some of the FA signings, as well as some of the roster moves he made WRT BUC, 1B & CF, I'd have to wonder...

at BUC - why not Lieberthal? And they still could have tried Nieves as a third catcher to allow Jorge to DH more often. Or even Molina.

The point is: Zaun wasn't the only option. Nor was Doug M or Cairo. And for the Ny Yankees they were signed as exactly that.

As for A-Rod: The Yanks have the advantage that they still save money (from Texas) if they give him an extension.

Cot's has this:
"waived NTC 2/04, allowing trade to NY with 7 years/$183M remaining
Texas agreed to pay remaining $4M in signing bonus & $67M of remaining $179M in salary
New York agreed to pay $112 of the remaining $179M in salary"

112/7 = yearly average of 16 million.

But Cot's also has:

"4 years/$64M remaining from NYY after 2006"

64/4 = 18 million/year.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/new-york-yankees_111398168678860040.html

The point: A-Rod has been coming to the Yanks at a steep discount. A four year extension to his current deal at 30 million a year is like a backloaded contract where they saved a ton on him initally. I don't see any reason why they shouldn't be major players for his services.

And if we see Cashman justifying not signing him because of money - then he IS an idiot.

Toby Hall had shoulder surgery in the off-season, it would have been a risky move. I think he was activated in May so you'd still need a BUC during that time.

I don't think we can really kill Cashman for the BUC. He tried to make a move and the other party didn't reciprocate in kind.

If you want to get on him for Mienkdickazticz then you have to understand his line of thinking, I think his reasoning made sense to me. We had a great offense with a sub par first basemen last year and Giambi DH'ing, why was he wrong in thinking the offense would produce at a high level and we could afford to put a defensive first basemen versus a big stick at 1st?

That's the thing, I find it hard to critique Cashman once I start to understand all the facts and the reason he did what he did.

If you want to kill him on Igawa, then that's perfectly alright with me. He messed up BIG TIME in signing Igawa, I think it can serve as a fireable offense. It was that BAD. But I don't think firing Cashman is the answer either, at least not now. As for Pavano, I find it hard to think we could have found anything of value for him, what was he suppose to do pay another team to watch him perform there?

I did the math wrong on A-Rod:

64/4 = 16 million/year.

Cot's is usually spot on and thorough so I have to call into question Steve's numbers.

~~~Cot's is usually spot on and thorough so I have to call into question Steve's numbers.~~~

I probably got them, back when, from mlb4u.com. See:

http://mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=991

where it reads.

"Texas pays a total of $67M of his salaries from 2004 to 10: $3M in 2004, $6M in both 2005 and 2006, $7.1M in 2007, $8.1M in 2008, $7.1M in 2009 and $6.1M in 2010"

In any event, I have now updated/edited to piece to reflect the issue.

Thanks Steve, but I think it's important to note that at an average of 16 million/year since 2004, the Yanks have been getting him at a HUGE bargin (almost 70 million off the Texas market dervied value).

Now taking that money saved and applying it to an extension means the Yanks can seriously outbid everyone else and still get a nice bargin.

4 years at 120 million (-70 mil= 50 million) = ~12mil/year

Shoot even:

4 years at 160 million (the press says 40 million/year!) = (-70 = 90 mil) = ~22 mil/year.

That's still a very nice bargin and below his current market value!

More importantly, those are numbers for the 2011-2014 - where revenue across baseball will likely be higher and the team is still raking in the dough from the Stadium 2.0 and A-Rod is approaching 800 jacks.

Simply, there is no reason not to sign him to an extension.

Exactly. This is the first blog where people actually get it. They can definitely sign him to an extension, where he will be getting over market value over the next 3 years plus the length of the extension, but the Yankees will be paying below market value. It's a no brainer.

But that's assuming we want him and he wants to stay. Let's just say we do make the playoffs and last year happens over again. Everyone decides it's best for him to leave.

It is still in nobody's interest for him to opt-out. The Yankees will trade him to the team he wants to go to and they'll give him the $130M/4 extension (or whatever). ARod again gets more than he would as a FA, the acquiring team pays less because Texas is still picking up part of the tab, and the Yankees could get some prospects or something, essentially in exchange for trading the Texas payments.

So I'm wrong - it is in somebody's interest - Texas. But I think Boras is way too smart to opt-out. He's only talking about it now for the idiots who actually think he'll do it...

~~~But I think Boras is way too smart to opt-out.~~~

Unless he really thinks he can get Alex an 8 year deal for $30+ mill per year. And, who knows? Boras thought he was going to get Varitek and Damon bigger deals than what they settled for in the end, no?

8 years at @30 million (240 mil) is still less than what he'd make if the Yanks honored the current contract and gave him a 200 million (over 5 years) extension (87 mil for 07-10 + 200 million = 287 million).

And what would the Yanks be paying?

200 mil - 70 mil = 130 million/5 years = 26 million a year.

And that's still well-below his market value especially to where revenues will be in 2011-2015.

There's no reason the Yanks can't sign him to an extension.

James, I agree, but I don't think you can look at it. You have to look at every scenario from 2007 on. In your case ($200M/5 year extension) the Yankees would be paying $248M/8, or $31M a season.

But your point is similar to mine. In the case of the 8 year, $30M contract that Steve points out, the Yankees could give him a 5 year, $175M extension. Then he gets $262M/8 (32.75M a season) - more than assumed market value of $240M/8, and the Yankees only pay $223M/8 (< $28M) - less that market value.

The point is, because of the Texas payments, no matter what the market value is, you can come up with an extension that gives ARod MORE than market value, and the Yankees (or any team acquiring him in trade) will pay LESS than market value.

Now, obviously the issue will be when Boras says "our market value is $35M per year", and the Yankees say "no it's not it's $30M, and our $175M/5 year extension will give you $33M per year you should take it".

But you still have to think they'll work something out.

And if they don't like each other come october, Cashman will find a team that ARod likes, that is willing to give him the extension, and get some prospects.

~The Yankees will trade him to the team he wants to go to and they'll give him the $130M/4 extension (or whatever).~

bobo,

What advantage would it be to Rodriguez to approve a trade? I believe the $7mm per year is voided in the event of a trade. If the receiving team would agree to pay 27x3 PLUS the extension then it might make some sense but if another team would do that he can also get it by opting out.

I still haven't seen a scenario where it benefits Rodriguez to approve a trade.

ANYONE: Can someone explain to me why Rodriguez would approve being traded? People like Joel Sherman urging Cashman to confront Arod to accept an extension or trade him don't understand who's holding the cards at this table and Sherman seems to be bright. What am I missing?

The only way I could see A-Rod MAYBE accepting a trade would be if the Yankees were 18 games out on July 30th and had no shot at a Wildcard and he was going to a team that looked like a lock for the WS. Here, he's thinking "shot at a ring and then opt out." No downside to him. But, this would not help the Yankees - since no team would give up anything of value in that situation. Hence, it will never happen.

What about the luxury tax? Will that still apply or does it go away with the new Yankee Stadium? If it is still in place, that $30 million per becomes around $39 million per. Not happening then.

I believe that the luxury tax is based on the total payroll and not individual contracts. Either way, I don't think it will factor into any decision to re-sign or extend ARod.

James and Bobo are right on - the Yanks have a unique opportunity to give ARod an above market contract at a below market cost. They'd be foolish to pass that up.

Regarding a possible trade, I don't see a scenario where that would work for anyone.

Yes, if the tax is still in place it is based on total team payroll, I understand that. But the effective cost (total cost) of any new deal for Alex will be high. Right now it is relatively low, factoring in roughly 30% of what the Yankees are paying on their portion of the contract. But as above, a new deal valued at $30 million per results in an actual cost of roughly $39 million per. A $33 million per results in roughly $43 million per. That is if the luxury tax is still in place.

Two questions: If the Yanks want to extend A-rod, at exactly what point does the Texas subsidy expire? At midnight on the final day of the regular season? Immediately following the final game of the World Series?

Also, let's say Cash engages in negotiations RIGHT NOW to extend A-rod (not wanting the Texas subsidy to expire), how would that play with Jorge or Mo, who both clearly wanted extensions prior to the start of the season? My guess is not too well.

ALSO, at this point I'm convinced that Cashman doesn't really see BUC as that big of a deal. If so, he could've acquired literally any other catcher, and it would've been an upgrade over Nieves. Sure, he would've had to overpay guys like Molina, Lieberthal, or Barajas, but you can't say that there weren't any other options (Hell, would Todd Pratt really have been any worse?) around at the time.

He didn't aggressively pursue another decent catcher this off-season because he didn't view it as a priority. Which I think was dumb.

RICH: I have seen nothing that says that Texas is off the hook if he's traded. If that's true, then obviously everything I'm saying about him being traded making more sense than him opting out is wrong, and I stand corrected. Do you have a source?

brockdc: "If the Yanks want to extend A-rod, at exactly what point does the Texas subsidy expire? At midnight on the final day of the regular season? Immediately following the final game of the World Series?"

Why do you think it expires? If ARod doesn't opt-out, he is a Yankee, and Texas keeps paying. The Yankees can extend him whenever they want - today, October 1st, or on Valentine's Day 2010. Texas keeps paying. Do you know something otherwise? If he's extended, he's still on the same contract through 2010 as he is now.

Why would he approve a trade? Because he may want to leave, and the Yankees may want to get rid of him. I am envisioning this happening after the season is over. He could perform poorly in the postseason again, he and the Yankees decide it's best to part ways, they work with him to find a trading partner, and it's effectively a little like he's a free agent, except he does not opt out, in order to keep the Texas payments coming.

~RICH: I have seen nothing that says that Texas is off the hook if he's traded. ~

bobo, I'll try to find where I've read it and get back to you whether I find it or not.

Thanks, bobo. I misinterpreted something Steve wrote earlier in the thread regarding the Yanks' timetable for signing him.

bobo (and everyone),

I can't find anything online to back up my statement that Texas is off the hook for the subsidy if Arod is traded.

Sorry for misleading anyone, including myself.

I totally agree with comments that reflect the need to extend A-Rod, thus preserving the Texas subsidy and allowing the Yankees to pay less than market value for the best player in the game while also paying him, arguably, MORE than market value. For everybody involved, that IS a no-brainer.

Also, keep in mind that once they move into the Stadium 2.0, that the debt on the new stadium is deductible from the team's payroll for luxury tax purposes. That fact made the new stadium also a no-brainer.

I would definitely endorse getting an A-Rod extension done NOW, but once that is done, turning to Posada and Mo and getting their extensions done now as well.