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May 09, 2007

"El Comedulce" Can't?

I was just looking at the Yankees 2007 stats, to date, via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia.

Here are the batters:

And, here are the pitchers:

So this season, who have been the Yankees "Most and Least Valuable Players"?

On the pitching-side, Pettitte has been very valuable - and Igawa has been a bust. On the hitting-side, A-Rod has been the most valuable - and Abreu has been the least valuable.

Yes, Bobby Abreu ranks behind Mientkiewicz and Cabrera. Not many people would have expected that...especially since Abreu got off to a good start while Minky and Melky struggled out of the gate.

Abreu makes $15.5 million this season. His contract has a team option for 2008 (at $16 million) where the Yanks can buy him out at $2 million.

Is Bobby pressing...trying to convince New York to pick up that option? Is Bobby pressing...thinking that he needs to put up big numbers in case the Yanks buy him out - and then he'll be a Free Agent?

Or, is Abreu starting to slide? Remember: From 2004 through 2006, Bobby's production went down every year in Philly. When he was traded to the Yankees, mid-season last year, his 2006 American League production jumped back to near-2004 (N.L.) levels (with New York). Could it be that Abreu snuck up on a new league last year and now the circuit in the A.L. has learned the book on him (as it seemed the N.L. did)?

It's too early to tell - either way - what the issue is for Abreu. Hey, it's really too early to even say there is an issue - at this point. Nonetheless, it's worth watching...because, if it continues for another two or three weeks, then it will be an issue...and the Yankees will have to figure out the root cause (in an effort to address it).

Posted by Steve Lombardi at May 9, 2007 09:53 AM

Comments

C'mon - Abreu had a bad 8 game stretch. He struggled in the second Boston series and in the first series against Texas. Unless you're saying that he started pressing on April 24th and stopped pressing on May 3rd, I don't think it's much more than a minor slump.

And his RCAA is a little misleading. Of course his RCAA is going to be lower than Minky and Cabrera. He's had more at bats. That's the major flaw with RCAA. It compares players who have made the same number of outs. Same reason why Chris Britton has a better RSAA than Wang.

Posted by: christopher [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 11:18 AM

Steve, do you have Abreu's RCAA totals? Going back a year earlier, it seems that 2004 may be the outlier. 1999-2000 seem a bit off too.

If you do, thanks, if not, no prob, I'll check when I get home later :)

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 11:38 AM

christopher - what about the marks for OPS, OWP, and BPA? Those are qualitative and not quantitative. Abreu's behind Minky in those.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 11:41 AM

The the 2 choices you give is he's pressing or he's starting to slide.

How about he's going through a slump?

Posted by: RICH [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 11:43 AM

I think the Yanks are going to pick up that option. I don't think Bobby's "done," and the Yankees like the player a lot (he's a pretty good glove in right and he has great patience at the plate). I think it would be perfect to have Bobby for one or two more years -- because you could then clear the way for Jose Tabata. Yes, I know, he's only 19 and in high-A, but the Yankees fully expect him to be in AA later this year and in AAA sometime next year.

I think the Yankees might be better off trying to work the same deal they did with Moose -- decline the option, but work out a two-year extension at less money (say 24 million over the two years).

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 11:51 AM

~~Steve, do you have Abreu's RCAA totals? ~~

1998 Phillies 29
1999 Phillies 58
2000 Phillies 49
2001 Phillies 43
2002 Phillies 57
2003 Phillies 38
2004 Phillies 69
2005 Phillies 34
2006 Phillies 18
2006 Yankees 19

2004 looks in line with 2002, 2000, and 1999 - right Raf?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 11:55 AM

~~~How about he's going through a slump?~~~

Didn't I write: "Hey, it's really too early to even say there is an issue - at this point. "????

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 11:58 AM

Hmmmm, other than a couple of hiccups in 2002 & 2004, he has been in a something of a decline since 1999.

Thanks, Steve!

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 12:32 PM

The "league" is not doing anything special, Bobby is taking some very ugly swings and looks like he has no idea where the ball is. Gone are the days of getting his pitch. I thought he was coming out of it the last couple of games in the seattle series but now he looks just as bad. These things happen.

What's been real interesting is Arod's non-slump; particularly if he gets another bunch of homeruns here and raises his average another 20 points. He is so locked in, even when he's not locked in....

and we don't need an "answer t-shirt" to "jeter sucks and arod swallows." have you lost your mind?

Posted by: dereksTeam [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 12:36 PM

~christopher - what about the marks for OPS, OWP, and BPA? Those are qualitative and not quantitative. Abreu's behind Minky in those.~

And Kevin Reese had a better OPS than Derek Jeter last year. Unless there was a bigger sample size or the two sample sizes were more comparable, I don't think there's much point in making a comparison.

Is Abreu performing below expectations right now? Absolutely. Is there any reason to think that the entire AL has figured him out based on a few bad games agains Boston and Texas or that he is pressing or starting to slide because of a week-long slump? No.

Posted by: christopher [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 12:37 PM

No way do the Yankees pick up Abreu's option He is a player on the downside of his career. His defense will only get worse; it isn't that good right now.

This is where Cashman has failed. Gene Michael and Bob Watson were able to plug in solid veterans, like O'Neill and Brosius, guys who didn't come with $15+ million price tags and deteriorating skills.

Posted by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 02:23 PM

This is where Cashman has failed. Gene Michael and Bob Watson were able to plug in solid veterans, like O'Neill and Brosius, guys who didn't come with $15+ million price tags and deteriorating skills.
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Cashman has added solid veterans; Robin Ventura & David Justice come to mind.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 02:48 PM

~~~Cashman has added solid veterans; Robin Ventura & David Justice come to mind.~~~

But, we can't assume that anything pre-May-2005 was all-Cashman, good or bad, right?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 03:15 PM

I'm not sure we can assume anything is all-Cashman, even today.

Posted by: christopher [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 03:32 PM

But, we can't assume that anything pre-May-2005 was all-Cashman, good or bad, right?
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If that's the case, then it's a bit early to determine whether Cashman has been a failure WRT "plugging in solid veterans." Do we count people like Small, Chacon, Rasner, & Igawa? Abreu, Fasano, Phelps, & Wilson?

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 03:46 PM

"This is where Cashman has failed. Gene Michael and Bob Watson were able to plug in solid veterans, like O'Neill and Brosius, guys who didn't come with $15+ million price tags and deteriorating skills."
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More of the same "True Yankee" nostalgia hoo-ha. Don, 6 weeks into the season and you're already on Cashman for his supposed error in getting Abreu for pennies on the dollar. I suppose you were sitting on your hands or booing last year when Abreu came to the Yanks and pretty much kicked ass (.330/.419/.507). Are you pining for those prospects we gave up? Seriously, how could you possibly say that Cashman did anything but a masterful job when he got Abreu for a couple of guys that may never see the light of day in the big leagues?

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 03:50 PM

MJ, I've no idea what you're talking about and I doubt you do either. I haven't been "already on Cashman" regarding Abreu, unless you mean my saying the team won't pick up his option for $16 million in 2008. Is that getting "on Cashaman"?

I don't see where Cashman got Abreu for "pennies on the dollar". Are the Phillies paying his 2007 salary or part of it?

And I did say guys with $15+ million price tags and deteriorating skills. This is an apt desciption of Abreu. Have you actualy watched him play RF since the Yankees traded for him?

Posted by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2007 05:58 PM