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May 01, 2007

Cano Chasing Pitches This Season?

The last time the Yankees got off to a slow start, close to the one like this season, was 2005.

During that year, Worm Killer Wang (on 4/30/05), Robinson Cano (on 5/3/05), Aaron Small (on 7/20/05) and Shawn Chacon (on 7/30/05) joined the Yankees and were big parts of New York's efforts to get back into the race.

Looking back at this now got me thinking more about Robinson Cano - since the two-year anniversary of his call-up is this Thursday.

I've noticed this season, to date, that Cano is batting .207 when he bats 7th or 8th in the line-up (which he has done, combined, 63 times). And, when he bats 1st or 6th in the line-up, again, to date, he bats over .400 - - granted, this average is over just 26 At Bats.

Could it be that, when Cano bats low in the line-up, with weaker bats behind him, that opponents don't throw him strikes...knowing that he'll chase pitches? I can't confirm this for sure...but, I cannot disprove it now as well.

Now, last season, when Cano batted at the bottom of the line-up, he did fine. But, most of those times, he had Melky Cabrera batting behind him...and Melky was hitting well last season. The bottom of the Yankees line-up this season lacking - compared to last year.

It could be nothing. After all, it's just April. But, it also could be something forming. It's worth keep an eye on this trend...for Cano and the Yankees.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at May 1, 2007 12:37 PM

Comments

It's still hard to know what to make of Robbie. Is he a free-swinging power hitter-in-the-making who has yet to develop a consistent power stroke? A singles hitter who sprays the ball to all fields?

Either way, I seriously doubt that he'll ever be great - despite the comps to Rod Carew - if he fails to develop some more plate discipline.

I did look at Carew's stats, though. His first two seasons were pretty weak in terms of OBP, even though he ended up with a career OBP of .390 something. So I guess anything's possible.

Posted by: brockdc [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 01:35 PM

I think you're right about hitting in front of slag like Minky. But also that Cano is simply going to have to show some more patience. The word is out: get Cano to two strikes, throw a fastball up and in, and he'll swing through it every time. It's getting a little embarrassing watching such a good hitter swing at pitches over his head. If he doesn't learn how to lay off bad pitches when he gets to two strikes, then he's going to have issues this year.

But here's the thing: every time the Yankees have a young player who does well, people say their success was a fluke. They say that about Wang and they're starting to say it about Cano. Cano, when on, is a scary-good hitter. I don't think it was a fluke, and if I was Torre, I might try to help Cano out by moving him up ahead of Matsui, who looks absolutely moribund right now.

Damon, Bobby, Cano and Matsui (and Minky, it goes without saying) seems to have caught the same slump-bug. Only Giambi and Jeter are hitting right now (even A-Rod has cooled off).

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 01:51 PM

I don't think the stats support that conclusion, Steve. From his baseball reference page, Cano is swinging at 50% of pitches thrown (52% career) and makes contact 86% of the time (87% career). So he's not swinging and missing any more than usual.

He's swinging at the first pitch less this year (32%) than his career overall (37%). Finally, He is still, in general, seeing significantly more pitches per at bat (3.55) than his career rate (3.16), though that is down from when I looked at it a couple of weeks ago.

I really think it's just a slump. Nothing to see here.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/canoro01.shtml

Posted by: mehmattski [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 01:55 PM

Well, I don't know the actual numbers, but Cano does look like he's chasing a lot. It's a little bit frustrating, knowing that he CAN be a good hitter.

It really is still early though. No need to give up on him yet. It's not like he's hitting (or not hitting) like David Wright. Mind you, I'm not trash talking the Mets or this specific Met in any way, Wright is just on the worst slump I've ever seen.

Posted by: snowball003 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 02:02 PM

~~~is swinging at 50% of pitches thrown (52% career) and makes contact 86% of the time (87% career).~~~

Is it about swinging and missing...or, is it about swinging at pitches that should be taken...instead of making contact with them and popping up or grounding out weakly?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 02:10 PM

Robby has always worried me, because his success is pretty dependant on BABIP luck. In contrast to Wang, who seems to me to be a true outlier, due to the quality and uniqueness of his stuff. Robby looks great when the hits are dropping in, and looks like shit when they aren't, and I haven't seen anything about him that makes me think he can overcome his poor plate discipline. He's not Vlad Guerrero...he's not even Alfonso Soriano.

Posted by: SteveB [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 06:31 PM

SteveB.

His high groundball percentage and middle of the pack line drive percentage make his BABIP less luck-based than a guy who hits flies more often.

Posted by: The Sporting Brews [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 06:47 PM