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May 06, 2007

Air-To-Ground Rockets Clemens Best Bet?

I was just looking back at Roger Clemems last tour of duty in New York. Here's how I would break it down:

1999: Clemens is not among the thirty best starting pitchers in the league. His "comp" that season is Brian Moehler. During the post-season, he bombs, terribly, in Game 3 of the ALCS against Boston. (Otherwise, he's very good in October '99.)

2000: Clemens is the second best starting pitcher in the league - behind Pedro Martinez. He's also untouchable in Game 5 of the ALCS - and great in Game 2 of the World Series.

2001: Clemens is one of the ten best starting pitchers in the league. His post-season is mixed: Not a strong ALDS, but, a strong World Series.

2002: Clemens is just barely among the thirty best starting pitchers in the league. His "comp" that season is Jon Garland. He does not pitch very well for the Yankees in the ALDS.

2003: Clemens is one of the twenty best starting pitchers in the league. He and Joel Pineiro basically pitch the same that season - in terms of relative pitching results. Clemens is great in the ALDS, he spits the bit in Game 7 of the ALCS, and does a decent job in the World Series.

In summary, Clemens had two great seasons in New York, two mediocre seasons with the Yankees, and one year that was between great and mediocre. In terms of Yankees October fortunes, it's been a mixed bag - some outstanding moments as well as some terrible games.

After 2003, Clemens left New York and pitched in Houston for three seasons. With the Astros, he was the 5th best starter in the league in 2004, the best starter in the league in 2005, and the 5th best starter in the league in 2006.

So, which Roger Clemens will show up during his return to New York, at age 44, this summer? And, why was Clemens so good all three years in Houston whereas he had mixed results in New York?

Here's some interesting things to note:

While pitching in Houston, Clemens' "Strand Rate" was near or over 80% each year. This means that he was leaving a lot of runners on base. From 2002-03, in New York, Clemens' "Strand Rate" was closer to 70%. This helps to explain the difference in ERA for Clemens between the AL and the NL over the last five seasons.

Also, from 2002-03, with New York, Clemens threw around 40% ground balls, 35% flyballs, and 25% line drives. And, about 10% of his flyballs went for homers.

With Houston, the last three seasons, Clemens threw around 50% ground balls, 32% flyballs, and 18% line drives. And, about 7% of his flyballs went for homers.

The difference for Rocket since going to Houston? More grounders. Less liners. Less flyballs going for homers. And, more runners stranded. Further, while in Houston, the percent of times a batted ball was turned into an out by Roger’s fielders, not including home runs, was around 74%. That's an excellent ratio.

Will Clemens continue to be more a ground ball pitcher, now, in his return to New York? Will those batted balls be turned into outs, as they often were in Houston? Will more outs on batted balls lead to more runners stranded?

I would bet that Clemens, when he started pitching in that small park in Houston, realized that he needed to keep the ball on the ground - to win. And, having great fielders, like Adam Everett, behind him probably helped with that call.

If Clemens is smart, he'll keep doing it (meaning "Think Grounders") in New York too. It's been working for Worm Killer Wang. Why can't it work as well for Roger?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at May 6, 2007 10:51 PM

Comments

Posted by: JeremyM at May 7, 2007 12:41 AM

Posted by: brockdc at May 7, 2007 01:52 PM