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May 01, 2007

Against All Odds?

From Tom Verducci today -

The Yankees were not just a little off their game in April, or a game or two below .500. They were .391 baseball awful. How many teams recover from that kind of terrible start to get into the postseason? Would you believe 4.8 percent? That's right. From 1996 to 2006, 62 teams played worse than .400 baseball in April. Only three of those 62 teams made the playoffs.

This sort of tells me the Yankees have to hope a season like 2005 - where they turn on all the jets and just make it in the last week...or...shoot for the Wild Card. Either way, it's all uphill for them...thanks to this terrible start.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at May 1, 2007 02:40 PM

Comments

So the Yankees have been playing bad, huh? I hadn't heard that.

Posted by: BMack [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 03:40 PM

I think we should abandon all hope and just root for the Giants (if we pray enough Eli Manning will become an accurate passer).

Hate to burden you with homework, Steve, but it would be interesting to look into the numbers Verducci cites. For instance, out of the teams who started so poorly, how many did so because of injury to major players (starting pitchers, big bats, etc.)? How many of those teams were actually any good to start with? How many were coming off playoff appearances the previous year or in recent years?

And the ones that did make it in -- were they just the good teams that stumbled out of the gate, or were they surprise teams that surged unexpectedly later in the year?

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 03:48 PM

So much has been made about "real" Yankees over the past several years. Trite as it may sound, something tells me that this year we're going to find out who the "real" Yankee fans are. It seems some of the bandwagoners are already starting to jump ship, as evinced by your own account of this past Sunday's Yanks-Sox matchup.

Posted by: brockdc [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 03:50 PM

"bandwagoners are already starting to jump ship..."

I am giving myself a timeout from metaphors for the remainder of the day. My apologies to all.

Posted by: brockdc [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 03:53 PM

Verducci isn't as bad as some of the other hacks, but he's close. We all remember the 11-19 start. Sure it wasn't ideal, but we still made the playoffs. This team is much better than that one.

I wonder how the Sox would fare if Schilling, Beckett, and Matsuzaka are all hurt for the same 2 weeks. What none of these idiots mention is that there is a legit reason they've lost: the injuries to the rotation have been disastrous.

Mussina and Wang are off the DL. Hughes is up. Clemens is still a possibility. The offense has been a monster throughout April. The bullpen was the best in the AL before they hid the abuse point of criticality.

They just have to go execute now.

Posted by: j [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 04:04 PM

Which were the teams? The 2005 Yankees and who else? I have to think one of those Oakland teams might make it. Were the Twins that bad last year?

a

Posted by: alex rainert [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 04:08 PM

As Bailey mentioned, Verducci's stat is a little misleading. I took a look through Baseball-Reference and it looks like only a half dozen or so of those 62 teams were legit playoff contenders IMO. 3 out of 6 making the playoffs is a much different stat than 3 out of 62. Two playoff teams from last year started with sub .400 records in April (Twins and Padres). The 2001 A's played .320 baseball in April and finished with 102 wins.

Posted by: christopher [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 04:12 PM

One thing these stats fail to take into account: this team is the New York Yankees. Anything can happen.

To prove my point: A-Rod batted .071 in the 2006 postseason, and in this month, came close to breaking the HR record for April.

Let's not lose hope or panic. And let the bandwagoners jump ship. There wasn't much room on this ship for them anyway :)

Posted by: snowball003 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 04:31 PM

They're 2 and a half games below .500. The sample size is way too small to be casting a burden on the future of the season. 6 and a half games out of first place is not a huge deal.

Posted by: RichDank [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 04:55 PM

"They're 2 and a half games below .500"

That's not the correct terminology. They're five games below .500.

I don't really have anything else to add. Let's sweep the freaking Rangers.

Posted by: Jordan Meisner [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 1, 2007 07:43 PM