April 25, 2007
The First 19 Games Under Torre A Clue To Yankees Pitching?
So, the Yankees have started this season with a record of 8-11. How does that compare to other starts under Joe Torre? Here's the answer:
This tells us that the Yankees' start this season is the same, just about, as 1997, 2004, and 2005.
This is interesting to me. One of my recent studies, suggested that the 1997 Yankees were an underachieving team and that the 2004-05 Yankees were much worse than their win totals suggested (because of their inferior pitching).
We know that the 2007 Yankees pitching has been bad to date. Will it get better? That all depends on Mussina, Pavano, and Hughes (or Karstens). If they can join Wang and Pettitte, it should be better. This also assumes that Igawa is removed from the rotation.
But, if Pavano is a bust, and Hughes (or Kartsens) can't handle the bigs yet, and Mussina proves to be an older pitcher (and shaky) this year, this season could be just like 2004 and 2005...in terms of how good the Yankees will be (compared to teams that can actually pitch). By this, I mean, sure, they still might win 90+ games - and maybe even finish first - despite the poor start. But, in the end, come October, they will have no chance.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at April 25, 2007 10:25 AM
If this, if that... It's only 19 games!!!
"No chance" in October? Come on.
Steve - I'm not sure if you were joking when I couldn't find your Email address last time cause I still can't find it!
Anyway - was thinking that when you have free time it'd be interesting to see what you think are the best (or your favorite) baseball movies.
"No chance" might be a little strong, with the best evidence being the 83 win Cardinals winning it all last year.
But my own work has shown that there is zero correlation between the Yankees' offense and their post season success. My dad laughed at me when I told him this, saying "Yeah, so you just spent four hours with an Excel sheet to come up with: 'Pitching wins championships'? I could have told you that." I agree Steve- IF Hughes can step up and compete, then a ALDS rotation of Wang, Pettitte, and Hughes could be pretty intimidating (assuming there's anyone left alive in the bullpen). But if there's no one behind Wang and Pettitte, this team will have a tough time in short postseason series.
Posted by: mehmattski at April 25, 2007 11:47 AM
~~~But if there's no one behind Wang and Pettitte, this team will have a tough time in short postseason series.~~~
No doubt in my mind.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at April 25, 2007 12:38 PM
~~~Anyway - was thinking that when you have free time it'd be interesting to see what you think are the best (or your favorite) baseball movies.~~~
On a slow day, I'll get to this.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at April 25, 2007 12:39 PM
"We know that the 2007 Yankees pitching has been bad to date. Will it get better?"
Oh Lord.... you mean it can get worse?
"But if there's no one behind Wang and Pettitte, this team will have a tough time in short postseason series"
Isn't that a tiny, tiny bit unfair to Moose?
Do you think expecting Hughes to be an impact pitcher in hsi first few MLB months is a bit unfair to him?