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March 19, 2007

How Much Value Is There In Doug's Mitt?

Peter Abraham wrote today that:

The first baseman’s primary job is to catch the ball thrown to him and Mientkiewicz is very, very good at that. He will save the Yankees an error a week.

This got me wondering: How good is Rico Bergman with the mitt? To that end, I decided to go back to "The Bill James Handbook 2007" to look at "The 2006 Fielding Bible Awards" - where a panel of experts voted on the best defensive players at each position last year.

For the record, Albert Pujols won the 2006 Fielding Bible Award (FBA) at first base. Mark Teixeira was second, and Rico Bergman was third. Pujols had 87 points on the ballot, Teixeira had 80 and "Rico" had 77. (Kevin Youkilis was a distant fourth with 51 points.) So, yeah, according to the FBA poll, Rico Bergman is still one of the best fielding first sackers in the game.

To get a feel for how the 2006 FBA work, note that A-Rod was the 17th best big league third baseman, points-wise, on the ballot for the hot corner. And, at shortstop, Jeter was the 18th best, again, points-wise, overall in the ballot for that position. On the brighter-side, Melky Cabrera was the 4th best left fielder, Jorge Posada was the 7th best catcher, and Mike Mussina was the 10th best fielding pitcher in the 2006 FBA ballots.

Now, to Peter's point that Rico Bergman will save the Yankees an error a week - how real is that claim?

A-Rod had 14 throwing errors last season. Jeter had eight and Cano had three. Nick Green had 2 throwing errors and Miggy Cairo had none.

There are roughly 26 weeks in a baseball season. So, if Rico Bergman saves the Yankees one error per week, then, based on the 2006 throwing error rate by the Yankees infielders, over the course of the entire 2007 season, the Bronx Bombers will only have one throwing error (from their non-1B infielders combined) - period.

Right? Follow the math: 14+8+3+2+0-26 = 1

I really enjoy reading Peter's blog. But, I think his claim on Rico is off - based on what the numbers say here. Maybe "Berg" can help save half of the Yankees throwing errors this season? But, even if he does that, based on last year's numbers, he's saving around two throwing errors per month (compared to last year's first basemen).

Is two saved errors a month worth carrying Rico's lack of stick at first? I guess it depends on when the "saves" occur - because if they come in a game where the Yankees are up or down by 6 runs, it really doesn't matter. But, if they come in the 9th, in a one-run game where the Yanks are winning, with two outs and a runner on third, then it's a true "save." Given the Yankees offense, which game scenario do you think will happen more often?

Better yet, look at it this way: In the last three seasons, Jason Giambi, Tino Martinez, Andy Phillips and Tony Clark played most of the Yankees games at first base. Giambi is thought of as a bad fielding first baseman and Tino, Phillips and Clark are reported to be pretty good around the bag.

In the last three seasons, name one game that the Yankees lost because Giambi could not convert a throwing error into an out. On the other side of the coin, name one game over the last three seasons where Martinez, Phillips or Clark won a game for the Yankees by turning a throwing error into a putout. Pretty hard, huh?

One would think, if a first baseman saving throwing errors, or not, was that big of an issue for the Yankees, there would be some games over the last three seasons where this issue would have burned a game into our memory - so badly that it would quickly come to mind as soon as someone said "throwing error." But, it's not happening - because, in the grand scheme of things, a first baseman "saving" throwing errors is probably not that big of a deal.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at March 19, 2007 10:30 PM

Comments

Maybe it's not the number of throwing errors he saves, but the peace of mind of the infielders. Look at Jeter's quote in the same Abraham entry. Knowing that there's someone at first that can scoop those bad hops or make those tags when he has to come of the bag puts a little less pressure on the infield. It's one less thing for them to worry about. Also, maybe a couple more infield singles become outs. (I can't give you numbers to back that up because I'm not that kind of girl.)

So, yeah, maybe they did bring Minky here for Alex.

Oh, what about errors committed by the Yankees first basemen last year? Can we assume that Minky can turn that 3-6-3 double play better than Jason? Or handle the throw to 2nd better when the runner takes off on a pickoff attempt? It may not be a game saving play, but confidence in your 1st baseman has to count for something, right?

Posted by: Jen [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 12:14 AM

True Jen. You also have to factor in Giambi's complete lack of range and poor throwing arm. It is Mientkiewicz's superiority in these areas, more than his ability to catch the ball, that will save the Yanks more runs. Granted, I think they give up more runs by starting Minky with his defense and no bat than by starting Phelps' bat, or even Giambi at first, and Abreu or Matsui at DH.

Posted by: Eric [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 01:49 AM

Oh, what about errors committed by the Yankees first basemen last year? Can we assume that Minky can turn that 3-6-3 double play better than Jason? Or handle the throw to 2nd better when the runner takes off on a pickoff attempt?
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Maybe, maybe not, but Minky isn't much more than a LIDR. Worthless with the stick, and overrated with the glove. Basically, he's this year's Tony Womack.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 08:22 AM

~~~Maybe it's not the number of throwing errors he saves, but the peace of mind of the infielders. Look at Jeter's quote in the same Abraham entry. Knowing that there's someone at first that can scoop those bad hops or make those tags when he has to come of the bag puts a little less pressure on the infield. It's one less thing for them to worry about.~~~

Actually, it's the opposite to me.

I can see the infielders thinking "Let me just get it *near* first, because we have Mr. Gold Glove there to save me if it's a bad throw."

I would rather have my infielders making sure their throw was good than having them winging it over there with the hope that Rico will save them if it's not a perfect throw.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 09:33 AM

Here's a very detailed blog post on Minky's value, employing some of the modern offensive and defensive formulas.

http://ndai.blogspot.com/2007/01/mientkiewicz-or-why-steven-goldman-is.html

Conclusion: "What we have, then, is this: his bat is worth 0 runs and his glove is worth 10-15. That makes him worth 1 win, maybe 1.5. That's below average, but not terrible. By TangoTiger's salary research, Mientkiewicz is worth between $4 million and $6 million."

Give me a guy like Giambi over there any day. (And a real bat at DH, or vice-versa.) There's a reason why Jason's worth more than $4-$6 million, if maybe less than what we're paying him.

Posted by: Paul Katcher [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 10:24 AM

You've got to account for the human element Steve. The other 3 IFers will have much, much more confidence throwing over to Minky than to Giambi, so a guy like A-Rod could make a nice stop on an odd bounce, take that extra half-second to get himself together, then fire a throw to first knowing it'll be caught.

And the same goes for a ball in the hole for Jeter, he can throw it knowing Minky will likely make the scoop if it's in the dirt.

Of course the Yankee infielders will still make errors, but the number of batters who'll beat out that throw to first will decline significantly I bet.

Posted by: Mike A. [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 10:44 AM

The thing that no one has pointed out is that yeah, you can say lets just throw Giambi in the field. BUT, for some odd reason, when Giambi plays the field a lot he tends to get hurt more often and then hes half of himself. Giambi not 90-100%, + his terrible fielding, just isn't worth it.
Point blank we need better defense. Now if this was a debate about should we play Melky in left and DH Matsui and play Giambi at first then I'd take a long look at the situation..

Posted by: themetssuck [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 11:06 AM

Hey Steve, would you like Rico if he hit .270 this year and had pretty good defense?

Cause I don't see much wrong with that in the 9th hole, especially if it helps ARod's head.

Posted by: SF Yanks [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 11:56 AM

>> I can see the infielders thinking "Let me just get it *near* first, because we have Mr. Gold Glove there to save me if it's a bad throw." >>

I can agree with Jen's and your standpoint on the matter, but I tend to lean toward Jen - anyone who's played an IF position in any sort of baseball/softball league knows it's all about getting the ball, setting yourself and throwing - there's little to no thinking involved. Not during the play, anyway.

All the IFs should worry about is lining up their bodies correctly and making the best throw possible. Having a decent 1B over there should make the outs easier to accomplish..

Posted by: Pete [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 11:58 AM

~~~Hey Steve, would you like Rico if he hit .270 this year and had pretty good defense?~~~

If he could have an OPS of 750+ and GG "D" - I would sign off on that, in a minute. The question is: Will his OPS be 750 or 700? If it's the latter, then he's a waste.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 12:20 PM

Point blank we need better defense.
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You could do better than Minky @ 1b, if that's the case.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 12:36 PM

~~~Point blank we need better defense.~~~

In terms of infield range, and outfield throwing, I would agree - 100%.

But, in terms of 1B saving throwing errors, it seems like a waste - - since we don't have a huge issue with INF'er throws.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 20, 2007 12:44 PM