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You don't want lofty expectations until he's done something to deserve them, but you're happy to accept a comp before he's thrown a pitch in the bigs?

Those comps are as pointless as the ones comparing him to Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling.

except these comps are based on comparison of statistics at similar levels, and statistics are a record of what happens in a baseball game. if we look at how many players improved or regressed from similar seasons, we can get an idea of the potential a prospect possesses. with about sixty years of data on thousands of players, eventually the sample size would have to be big enough for trends to emerge. they have, and PECOTA is one of the most accurate projection systems ever invented. to brush them off is unfair. i will admit, however, that expecting a player to be the same player as any of his comps is pointless, but as more data is collected, having a similar career path to those comps is very likely.

as for andy benes, the Cardinals must have liked him so much that they drafted both of his brothers, Adam (a SS who never made it past AA) and Alan (a mediocre pitcher who is still kicking around the Memphis/St. Louis shuttle). Does Phil Hughes have any siblings?

How do you create a comp for a twenty-year-old who hasn't thrown a pitch above AA? It's ridiculous.

Since everyone overreacted to Hughes' 1.1 innings, I guess we should do the same for Matsuzaka, who pitched against Boston College and gave up a leadoff double. I think Mats will pitch well in America -- his ERA should be in the low 3s, I think -- but the one thing that might worry you is that he seems to rely heavily on his four-seam fastball, which (though it is fast through the zone and his delivery disguises it well) is straight as an arrow. Beckett throws a lot harder than Mats, and he saw what happens when you throw straight heat in the AL.

And if his fastball is more 91-92 instead of 94-95, he might be giving up a lot of home runs this year.

FWIW, Schilling's fb's as straight as an arrow too, and he seems to have done quite well for himself

Schilling is one of the best pitchers of the last decade. Go check out his numbers in his final years with Philly and his years with Arizona -- they trump Santana's numbers of today (he had three 300-plus strikeout years in there).

Schilling has amazing control -- he can spot his fastball so well he could probably hit a fly on a wall from fifteen yards. And when he's right, he's sitting 94-97. Plus his splitter is so devastating you can't sit on the fastball.

Beckett's curve wasn't anywhere near Schilling's splitter.

And Mats' fastball seems to consistently be over the plate and in a hittable zone.

If we're going to allow that someone can get by with a straight fastball, let's not use Curt Schilling as an example, since he was operating on another planet from 1997 to 2002.

I'm not concerned with Mats straight fastball, I'm more concerned with his ability to pitch.

Beckett's problem wasn't throwing straight fastballs, it was he couldn't get his secondary pitches over.

I've been championing Matsuzaka from the moment it was announced he would be posted. While Steve was questioning him in posts, I defended him. I'm not knocking the guy. And I said his ERA would be in the low 3s, which sounds pretty good to me.

I'm just pointing out that he seems to throw a four-seam fastball over the heart of the plate.

Never said he couldn't pitch.

And in my opinion saying "Curt Schilling throws a straight fastball" is like saying "Mo throws a cutter."

I'm just pointing out that he seems to throw a four-seam fastball over the heart of the plate.
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And I'm pointing out that it may or may not be that big a deal depending on other factors.

Never said you were knocking him; I was here when you were defending him, and I was hoping the Yanks would get him.