WasWatching.com

i truly think Arod WILL opt-out after the season. whatever happens during the season can be used as motivation. 1. he has a disappointing season, with all the booing and media pressure, and leaves bc he 'doesn't feel wanted,' OR 2. has a great season, and leaves bc his value is at its highest. and let us not forget reason #1, Scott Boras. of course, even when he does opt-out, it doesn't preclude him from resigning with the Yanks.

But if he does leave, i honestly wouldn't care all that much. maybe the focus on 2008 will be on actual baseball. and there's the possibility of DJ moving to 3b while AGon takes over at SS. a downgrade offensively, but an upgrade on defense. and who's to say the Yanks wont sign Andruw Jones or Ichiro (and move Damon/Matsui to 1b), which would replace a lot of Arod's offense if he left?

A very interesting entry, Steve. I've long been fascinated by Alomar too. For all intents and purposes, we can ignore the White Sox and the Diamondbacks. At that time, he was just playing like an old player and hanging on for dear life.

Still, the usual explanation for such a career is that he was a clubhouse cancer. I never heard that many negative clubhouse stories about Alomar, though. (He's no Rogers Hornsby, who also played on more teams than a player of his stature should have. The Alexander biography of Hornsby, by the way, was a very interesting read.)

What I find most interesting about Alomar though is that he fell into the trap that seems to ensnare a lot of second basemen. For some reason, second basemen have a habit of not aging very well. Knoblauch and Baerga are probably the best, most recent examples of this.

If I wanted to take a stab on why second basemen seem to get washed up in their early 30s, I would guess that they are usually not good enough hitters to justify moving to another easier position like 1B, a corner OF slot, or DH. So, when their fielding slips, they're out of a job.

Looking more specifically at Alomar's moves, I can see why they happened. When he left Baltimore, Baltimore was being run by Syd Thrift, who at that time was at the height of his incompetence. When he left Cleveland, Cleveland was at the end of the run and they were starting their re-building effort. Looking at it this way, the only unexplained occasion upon which Alomar changed teams was when he left Toronto (also a re-building organization at the time) for the millions of Peter Angelos.

That's an interesting point jonm.

Most cases, 2B's do have some short-comings in their "D" - or else they would be a SS - this is why so few players are drafted at 2B and most 2B's at the pro-level are converted from another position, like SS or 3B. But, that would not explain the hitting drop off - which is what really drives them out of the game. Because, if they can really hit, like Carew or Jeff Kent, they will be moved.

I really don't know what the answer could be to that one.

~~I really don't know what the answer could be to that one.~~

We could make some speculative hypotheses. One could be that they take a disproportionate share of hits when they make the pivot and injuries derail their whole games sooner. Another could be that second basemen happen to be less athletic than other position players. They lack the strength of the guys who play the power positions (corner OF, 1B, or 3B). And they lack the speed and reflexes of shortstops and center fielders. Because of this, when they slip just a little bit in their early 30s, they quickly fall below replacement level and leave the big leagues.

Based on evidence, I would be very leery of giving a second baseman a long contract after they hit 30. Even Craig Biggio had his last great season at age 33.

No one in their right mind will give A-Rod the dough to cover ~80 million over 3 years. Still, Hicks proved that not all owners are in their right mind. If he leaves, it won't be for money, but rather to get the pressure of his back.

Baerga's problem wasn't that he didn't age well, it's that a lot of his value was tied up in batting average. That caught up to him in his age-27 season.

As for Alomar, he has some interesting comps over at baseball reference;

Lou Whitaker (858)
Frankie Frisch (849) *
Julio Franco (840)
Barry Larkin (840)
Ryne Sandberg (834) *
Joe Morgan (828) *
Charlie Gehringer (821) *
Craig Biggio (816)
George Davis (815) *
Vada Pinson (804)

I didn't expect to see Lou Whitaker there in the top spot

If he leaves, it won't be for money, but rather to get the pressure of his back.
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Whoever gets him will get production similar to his time in NY. Unless he goes to Colorado, of course.

Of course, it should be mentioned;
H/R splits, 2006 (BA-OBP-SLG-OPS)

H: .311/.398/.572/.970
R: .270/.386/.474/.860

Looks like 2004 was the only year where he did better on the road than he did at home. Interesting

If my math is right, Alomar's production fell off a cliff after his 11th MLB season. I don't think anyone is projecting that with A-Rod.

You are also forgetting one HUGE factor with Alomar. The Hirschbeck spit in the face incident. I think that episode made him persona non grata around baseball for a while and may have been representative of his personality in general. Angry, and brooding. I lived in MD when he was with the Os and he was by most accounts unapproachable and dicky.

And of course his talent isn't close to A-Rod's, so I'm not sure one would pick Alomar as a good representative analog for Rodrigu....oh wait, yeah I know why.

Alomar was a victim of two of biggest fire sales in recent history - the mid-90's Blue Jays and the 2001/2002 Indians. That's the biggest reason why he's bounced from team to team. I don't think there's much more too it than that.

~~Baerga's problem wasn't that he didn't age well, it's that a lot of his value was tied up in batting average. That caught up to him in his age-27 season.~~

Of course, those aren't mutually exclusive options. His reflexes slipped a tad and there went the batting average.

This rumor from B-R's Bullpen page may have had something to do with Baerga's troubles:

"Rumor has it that back in 1996, Baerga was sleeping with Indians' closer Jose Mesa's wife. Mesa demanded "either he goes or I go," and Baerga was then shipped off to the Mets with Alvie Espinoza for Jeff Kent and Jose Vizcaino."

Great trade for the Indians by the way; talk about making lemonade from lemons!

~~~If my math is right, Alomar's production fell off a cliff after his 11th MLB season. I don't think anyone is projecting that with A-Rod.

And of course his talent isn't close to A-Rod's, so I'm not sure one would pick Alomar as a good representative analog for Rodrigu....oh wait, yeah I know why. ~~~

SteveB - you're right. When you compare Alomar, at the age A-Rod is now, to Alex, yes, A-Rod is twice the hitter that Alomar was. That said, it seems even more odd that A-Rod will play for 4 different teams in a 9 year period, no?

~~That said, it seems even more odd that A-Rod will play for 4 different teams in a 9 year period, no?~~

If this happens, I really don't see it as odd at all. ARod's bizarrely large contract makes him historically unique. Texas felt the contract was inhibiting the development of the team. Based on the fact that Texas still hasn't made the playoffs since the ARod trade and that they still pay a large portion of the contract, it looks like that trade was a miscalculation on their part.

A-Rod negotiated an opt-out clause in good faith and, if he either wants to use it to get a lucrative extension from another team or just to leave NY, that's his right. I still find it somewhat hard to believe that any other team would be willing to give him an unsubsidized $160 million for his age 32-37 seasons. If ARod has to move to 1B (now it looks like he might have to), he simply is not worth that much money. On the other hand, if the Yankees decide to give him an extension, the same ARod seasons would cost them $130 million and the Rangers $30 million. I'm not even sure that he's worth that much. Either way, it's a good thing for the Yankees. In effect, they have ARod in a pseudo-option year.

...it seems even more odd that A-Rod will play for 4 different teams in a 9 year period, no?
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Not really. As been shown before, he isn't the first talented player to move around.