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Steve, i think it's all about the Clemens factor. Everyone is buzzing over his appearance last night and his brief meeting with Steinbrenner, etc.

I think if Cash and Torre can get a wink, wink, nudge, nudge agreement with Clemens that he'll be ready to pitch in the Bronx by late May, they'd have no problem taking a couple more healthy spring starts from Pavano and ship him to the NL, allowing Karstens and Rasner to battle for the handful of starts until Clemens gets there.

If they dont get that from Clemens, I still think Rasner or Karstens will be the long guy in the pen, to fill it out in front of Mo, Farnsworth, Proctor, Villone, Myers, and Vizcaino.

I don't think Britton has much chance of making the team. Bruney was hurt and then sick, so he's behind everyone. So that and Torre's insistence on having a longman makes his chances fairly remote now (which I think is a mistake, since Bruney's raw stuff is so explosive).

So you have 1) Mo, 2) Farns, 3) Proctor, 4) Vizcaino, 5) Myers, 6) Villone... and Karstens or Rasner as the longman at 7.

Karstens is a nice little pitcher, but I'd much rather have Rasner. There's a weird thing that goes on with the Yankees, though: they always seem to stick passionately to the guy who spent more time with the big-league club, even if it's a month extra or just one more game. So even though Rasner would be better out of the 'pen because he keeps things on the ground with a probably as-good-or-better strikeout rate than Karstens and since Karstens is a flyball pitcher, Karstens still seems to have the edge simply because he was with the club longer (though thinking back it seems like it's only a slight edge). I call this the Bubba/Kevin Thompson Spring-Training Conflict. Even though Thompson was obviously superior, Torre always went back to Bubba, simply because they knew and liked him more.

The bullpen is as badly constructed as the overall roster, though. Even though he comes in handy in Red Sox series, there's really no need to have Myers in the 'pen. I sort of like deploying him against tough lefties like Ortiz, but he's too limited to be helpful, and Villone should be able to handle lefty-on-lefty matchups (I think I'd rather have Henn be the second lefty in the 'pen instead of Myers).

The 'pen would be better off with Bruney AND Rasner making the team and Myers being left off, but that will never happen -- just like Minky will be platooned and they'll carry Phillips/Phelps and Cairo.

Turn2....
1) I don't think Rajah would tip his hand.
2) Even if he did, short of an unbreakable contract, I don't trust him as far as Damon can throw him.

People are concerned about our starting 25 come opening day. But for the first time in years, we have a lot of options. Even at 1B, a hot Phillips or Phelps could turn Minky into a LIDR. In terms of our 12 opening day pitchers, only 1/2 of them are sure things.

I'm surprised that we were willing to cut Villion loose, and yet now he's one of the 25. I don't think we need 2 LHers, unless they are both effective. A good RHer is better then an average LHer. So again, who's pitching by the ASB and in the PS is still very much in the air.

My guess is that Cashman will let Torre have his way with Villone on the team and Britton/Bruney/Rasner down in AAA but that the Villone experiment will have a short leash. If Villone's still stinking up the joint by mid-May, I figure Cashman will pull the plug and call up one of his better righty arms. It always seems like Torre gets to play with his toys early and then Cashman has to get serious after 6 weeks of dicking around.

As for the Myers/Villone issue that Baileywalk raised, in an ideal world, Villone would be good enough that he could be used either as a LOOGY or as a 1-inning guy. But Villone stinks so why prefer Villone's suckitude when you can have Myers who is limited to exclusive LH duty but still better overall at this point.

~It always seems like Torre gets to play with his toys early and then Cashman has to get serious after 6 weeks of dicking around~

I always figure that Torre starts off the season trying to figure out what he actually has (ST merely being a "get in shape" and "let's see who's good right now") and then once he's figured out who can pitch/play in what situation, Cash then takes care of what's needed.

MJ, even with Villone's suckitude in '06, he still held lefty batters to a .179 BA (he also had 37 SO in 32 IP against them). Villone can handle lefties.

Myers is too limited to truly be effective -- he puts a big burden on his fellow 'penmates. It's hard to justify carrying a pitcher who's only going to throw 35 innings, even if he is fun to spring on guys like Ortiz.

I'd much rather have Bruney, Villone and Rasner in that bullpen than Myers, Villone and Rasner.

It was expected that Villone would revert a bit after the ASB last year, but he completely lost control, and if he wants to be a man and not blame Torre's overuse, then fine, but clearly Villone was an older pitcher who was used too much and too often and broke down. If his arm is still attached this year, he might be a pretty effective reliever.

Trading Myers away would not, in my opinion, hurt this team at all.

i looked at both their stats (too lazy to list them again now) and came to two conclusions. 1. Myers has consistently fared well against LHP, even Ortiz; 2. Villone is not as much of a lefty specialist, and Ortiz kills him - and he was destroyed in 06 by all our division rivals to boot. I can kinda understand keeping Myers on the roster for Ortiz, Hafner, Thome, Drew, Overbay, Chavez, Morneau, Mauer, etc. But there's no WAY Villone should make the team. The stats are pretty evident.