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January 05, 2007

Unit's Return To The Bronx?

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into Yankee Stadium for a 3-game series this year on June 12th-14th. Let us assume that Randy Johnson pitches one of those games for the D'backs.

What do you think the crowd reaction will be towards him before and after the game?

I think he gets booed at the start of the game and then:

1. Booed when he leaves the game if he pitches well, or
2. Cheered when he leaves the game if the Yankees bat him around.

If you were at the game, what would you do in terms of a fan reaction?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 5, 2007 09:09 AM

Comments

I think I would only be pissed at Randy Johnson next year if he was all of a sudden the type of lights-out pitcher that we expected him to be in the Bronx. That would mean that he just wasn't trying during his tenure in the Bronx. Otherwise I would be pretty indifferent.

I'll expect most fans to boo him.

Posted by: Jordan Meisner [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2007 09:19 AM

I think the reaction will be boos, but will be either muted or fueled by whatever comments he makes in the press after the trade, and especially before he returns to the Stadium to pitch. If he plays it close to the vest you'll get a smattering of boos and cheers. If he is a crank (imagine that) he'll get the full Bronx treatment.

My dream matchup on that day (that will never happen in 10 million years) would be Johnson vs. Ohlendorf, where Ohlendorf pitched so well that he won the starting job, wins the game, and goes on to post more wins than Johnson. Pure fantasy, but I love to dream.

Posted by: Mike Plugh [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2007 10:37 AM

Yeah, a lot depends on his comments while back in Arizona. If he pulls out the blame card and says New York was a dump he couldn't stand, then he will be savaged. But if he continues the line that he just wanted to go home and that his brother's death shook him, etc., then I don't think it will be too bad. I think Yankee fans want to quickly forget all about the "Randy Johnson era" (which, amazingly, only lasted two years, though it feels much longer).

I think out of sheer frustration Yankee fans will boo him if he pitches well against us. It's to be expected -- and it'll probably be the first time Unit smiles on the Yankee Stadium mound.

Fully expect Johnson to be one of the ten best pitchers in the NL this year. The NL is THAT weak. I bet his ERA lowers to around 3.00 and his strikeouts rise to about 250. He's going to have a monster year for Arizona. I have absolutely no doubt about it.

It's funny how every time the Yankees get a new kid in some deal, people mention that he could end up in the rotation. First Sanchez (who's supposedly going to the 'pen) and now Ohlendorf (who's also supposedly a potential 'pen guy). If anyone without major-league experience (in other words, besides Rasner and Karstens) is going to make this team in '07, it's Phil Hughes. And why? Because he's the best pitching prospect in baseball and he's light-years better than these other pitchers.

Last night Tom Verducci said Ohlendorf has been clocked as high as 98 miles an hour and that some said he could be the next Mo Rivera (which is quite a statement). And today they had a story in the "Post" that this kid was a steal for the Yankees and that one way or another, he will help the club.

That makes the deal sound much better.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2007 10:52 AM

Maybe because he never came up big, maybe because he never seemed to enjoy being in NY, or in pinstripes, but I don't see anyone having feelings that strong either way on Johnson. He ended up being a middling performer that benefited from above average run support. To the plus side, I appreciate that he took the ball when he was hurting. It all kind of balances out to a big yawn. I'll be very interested to see if his fastball clocks in at 95+ again (as I've stated before, I see the miraculously sharp drop-off in his fastball as the root of his decline). If so, he was either more hurt than he let on, or that hot, thin Arizona air causes less friction on the ball. If his fastball is ~ 90-91 like it was the last two years, don't expect him to win any Cy Young awards next year. Even NL batters can sit on a mediocre fastball and turn it around. On balance I’m pretty happy with the trade. Factoring in what we already had, Cashman appears to: 1) have compiled the best minor league and AAAA (Rasner and Karsten) pitching staff in the nation in around 3-4 weeks, 2) somewhat improved the ML starting staff, 3) cleared out noisy Sheffield and 4) reduced payroll by ~ $15 million. Pretty good. Sign Miggy, say goodbye to Bernie, seek a trade for a blue chip catching prospect, and call it a winter. We will be in our best position in years as we approach mid-season corrections around the trading deadline.

Posted by: #15 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2007 11:42 AM

Roger Clemens only throws 90-91 and he's been the most dominate starter in the NL for the last three years.

The biggest misperception about Randy Johnson was that he still threw 100 miles an hour in 2004. He did not. After his surgery in '03, he didn't have the same blazing fastball. He threw in the 91-96 range.

When he struck out 290 batters in '04 and pitched a perfect game, he did it with a fastball that averaged 92-93.

So he didn't lose six miles an hour on his fastball like people think. It was more like 1 or 2. Taking it from from averaging 93 to 91.

Also, it was his inconsistent slider that hurt him more than anything else. Even in games where Randy was dominating, he would hang a slider and turn a good game into a bad game. His stubbornness on not being more than just a two-pitch pitcher -- when it was obvious his slider had lost bite -- is what really got him rocked.

You cannot being to underestimate how much weaker the competition is that Randy will be facing now. Even as a Yankee Randy dominated NL teams (besides the Mets).

For him, it will be like a vacation. His ERA will drop dramatically and his strikeouts will rise.

Pettitte was almost always a 4ish ERA guy; he went to the NL and went under 3. Compare Clemens and Pedro in their last AL years and then look at their NL years.

I think Mike Mussina would be pushing three hundred wins if he pitched in the NL his entire career, and last year he would have been a Cy candidate.

I will be glad to revisit this after the '07 season is done. My line for Johnson would be about 15 wins, 3.00 ERA, and around 250 strikeouts (unless he misses significant time at the beginning of the year, which would reduce his innings).

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2007 12:51 PM

"His stubbornness on not being more than just a two-pitch pitcher -- when it was obvious his slider had lost bite -- is what really got him rocked." bailey, not to try to give Unit too much slack, but given the amount of throwing on the side you would need to develop another pitch like a slow curve or even a changeup and RJ's myriad physical problems, he had no prospect of expanding his pitch repertoire. If anything, the fact that he could throw a dominant 6 innings once in a while, gave him the unwarranted hope that he could "manage" his back and knee problems. If Cashman doesn't learn anything else from this and Pavano's sick case, it's to have team physicians scrutinize those medical reports like fiends.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2007 01:27 PM

Johnson HAD other pitches, though. He threw a split-change that was effective in keeping people off-balance. He used it every now and again (I remember a game against Detroit where he used it to great effect) but he always went back to the fastball-slider-fastball-slider routine. Being a two-pitch pitcher is only possible if your two pitches are utterly dominant -- and Randy's were for most of his career. They weren't in New York. His slider flattened out and batters were just sitting on it. They always knew what was coming, and he didn't have the type of stuff where even if they knew they couldn't hit it (which was true back in 2001).

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2007 01:39 PM

I'd boo him. He's a big piece of turd.

Posted by: Garcia [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2007 05:05 PM

Me? More indifference than anything else. He'd still be here, if he didn't want to pitch closer to home. Can't fault a man for wanting to be with his family.

If his back is right, he'll bounce back.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2007 05:59 PM

Bailey,
I live in an NL town and get to see Andy and Clemens pitch regularly (as well as the pre-2005 RJ). Absolutely no question that the NL is hitting challenged and a whole lot easier on pitchers. Only NL players deny this. Roger and Andy succeeded in large measure because (Clemens’ power reputation aside) they both are pitchers, not just throwers. They keep hitters off balance, the key to success (unless you happen to wear #42 on your back). I think you underestimate the drop-off in MPH on Randy's fastball. I'm not contending he was throwing 100 MPH in '04, but he definitely dropped from 95-96 to 90-91 on the plan ride between Arizona and NY. Once his fastball got ordinary, the opposition could sit on it and pass on his (also declining) slider, especially in "slider counts". There is a long list of unsuccessful 90+ MPH pitchers in both leagues. He declined sharply (most guys decline even younger), although I suspect he'll have a somewhat lower ERA this year, and still manage 12-15 wins.

Posted by: #15 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 5, 2007 08:02 PM