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January 13, 2007

Ichiro In 2008?

Ichiro Suzuki wanting to leave the Mariners is popping up in the news again - and there are opinions already starting to form on the notion.

If Ichiro truly wants to move, you would have to bet that the Yankees would come up as a possible landing spot for him.

As a Yankees fan, who would you rather have in RF in 2008 - a 34-year-old Bobby Abreu or a 34-year old Ichiro Suzuki?

The offensive skills of both players, in terms of boiled down collective relative production, are pretty close. Yes, they have different styles of offensive attack, but, in terms of bottom line production, they're not all that far apart from each other. Also, both are durable players.

If you're the Yankees, and you could trade Abreu for Ichiro, one-up, today - would you do it? It's a very interesting debate. At this moment, I'm not sure which side I would take on this one.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 13, 2007 09:39 AM

Comments

I'd keep Abreu. But it would be fun to watch Ichiro! on a daily basis.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 13, 2007 11:09 AM

i wouldn't mind having ichiro in center, damon in left, melky in right, and matsui at first. that would be a defensive upgrade in all 4 positions from how the roster is currently set (matsui over giambi, not minky) with no dropoff in batting.

Posted by: adam [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 13, 2007 11:49 AM

1 year of Abreu or 4? 5? years of Ichiro?

Assuming Abreu has a good 2007 (and I see no reason for him not to) I'd rather pick up his 2008 option and see if Tabata will be ready for 2009.

Posted by: Jeteupthemiddle [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 13, 2007 12:17 PM

Just gut feeling:
I believe Abreu offensively is a slightly more potent bat, but
1) I believe Ichiro will age better, be productive longer
2) His defense as well as his arm are outatanding, and with an offensively packed lineup like the Yankees, I think his added 'D' is very valuable

How old is Tabata? Isn't 2009 a little early?

Posted by: singledd [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 13, 2007 12:31 PM

He is 18, but his expected ETA is mid-2009.

He ended last season in A+ so figure he will end this season in AA. In 2008 he should be in AAA.

Of course, this assumes he succeeds at each level without any problems and he is healthy.

I'm not saying he will definitely be ready, but after this season you can see if he will be on pace to be ready for 2009 and if you need a stop gap or you need a solution. After 2008, you can see if he will be starting in AAA (or if he's already been there) or if you just need a half a year of Melky (or someone similar) playing everyday before he comes up.

Posted by: Jeteupthemiddle [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 13, 2007 12:39 PM

No to Ichiro Suzuki. A big NO!

He has a lot of talent but we just got rid of a malcontent RF in Sheffield. Not another jerk, please!

I don't care how talented he is or will be in 5 or 100 years. This is the type of person to avoid.

Posted by: Paul [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 13, 2007 12:49 PM

I didn't know he was a mal-content or a problem. Is this because he is playing on a shitting team?

Posted by: singledd [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 13, 2007 01:11 PM

The numbers say Abreu is a substantially better hitter. He's a pretty good fielder and base-runner.

Ichiro is a superb fielder and base-runner.

My feeling is that Ichiro's fielding and running don't make up for his hitting deficit, so I would stick with Abreu.

Posted by: David [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 13, 2007 05:22 PM

A lot of Ichiro's value rests in his brand name and defensive prowess, because his offensive output is underwhelming for a corner outfielder (which is what I'm assuming he'd be if he played for the Yanks).

Looking at his hitting stats, I was particularly surprised by his lack of doubles power (one of Abreu's strenghths). His slugging % over the past three seasons? .455, .436, and .416, respectively - mediocre and trending downward. Also, he will most likely command a 4-6 year deal, which means the Cubs, er, I mean, some gullible team will probably end up shelling out 15-16 mil/year to watch an aging Ichiro play stellar defense and slug in the .390's.

Or maybe we could convert him to catcher.

Posted by: brockdc [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 13, 2007 05:51 PM

Jete, Tabata was only in low A last year. He'll start this year at high A Tampa. That means if he progresses at one level a year, he'll begin at AAA in 2009 (ala Hughes this year). He COULD be ready to play by mid 09.

On Ichiro, he's a great player, but has several flaws: little power, and little patience. Abreu averages 4.26 pitches/pa vs. Ichiro's 3.53 p/pa. I think Abreu will have a very nice 2007, and (unless Melky shines) will be resigned for 08. Another problem with Ichiro is that he's a leadoff hitter. We already have Damon through 09. The same with Matsui. There just doesn't seme to be room for Ichiro, especially with Melky, and later Tabata coming up. there's also the possibility of Brett Garnder taking over CF, pushing Damon to LF.

What to do though in 2009? Abreu's a FA. Resign him with Tabata (hopefully) waiting in the wings? Probably not. Especially if Melky's still on the team, who would (probably) occupy RF that year until Tabata comes up.

Posted by: Travis G. [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 13, 2007 07:11 PM

Ichiro's skill as a hitter involves two things - his ability to put the ball in play, and his speed.

Abreu's skills are completely different - he relies on good plate discipline and driving the ball to the gap.

As they age, which skill is more likely to decline: speed, or batting eye?

There's no question I would prefer Abreu.

Posted by: Mr. Faded Glory [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2007 12:43 AM