« Keith Law: Yanks Farm Rates | Main | Thank You Jeff Weaver? »

January 26, 2007

Bronx Pen Better Than Beantown Pen?

On Monday, I suggested that the Yankees and Red Sox bullpens this year would probably add the same value to their teams this season. Since I took some heat for that comment, I decided to look deeper into the numbers.

I decided to use Ron Shandler's projected Base Performance Value (BPV) marks to assign some value on each member of the pens for 2007. BPV aims to reflect, in one number, some fundamental skills used to evaluate a pitcher's performance: K/BB ratio, K/9 IP, HR/9 IP and a pitcher's ability to prevent hits. For relief pitchers, a BPV around 75 is good stuff and anything close to 100 is great.

Here are the numbers:

2007BPVs.jpg

Hideki Okajima is anyone's guess now. I suppose, at the worst, he could match Mike Myers' BPV projection. Maybe he could rate as high as 75 in '07? More than likely, it will be somewhere in between.

I was surprised to see the BPV projection for Proctor. Last year, his actual BPV was 80. This was 51 in the first-half of 2006 and 121 (!) in the second-half of the season. That projected mark of 57 may turn out to be very low.

In any event, using the BPV projections tells me that I was wrong earlier this week. The Yankees '07 pen has four guys with the potential to be very good and two others who should be acceptable arms. The Red Sox '07 pen has two guys who should be acceptable and four others (being kind and including Okajima here) who might be average at best. In a nutshell, the Yankees pen has a potential ceiling that the Red Sox pen can't even hope to touch at this point - at least on paper.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 26, 2007 10:44 PM

Comments

http://www.courant.com/sports/baseball/hc-...dlines-baseball


Be Careful When Making A-Wish
It's what sports fans do. They second-guess most things. Today's subject: Did the Yankees do the wrong thing when trading for Alex Rodriguez in 2004? The view from here: no. But no doubt it has backfired.


Another clueless Journalist trying to stir up something. Don't Blame Arod for Yankees Demise in the postseason. It was Yankees pitching that' didn't get it done. Blame Joe for mismanaging the Bullpen and overusing Paul Quantrill and Tom Gordon. Blame Kevin Brown for punching the wall in his pitc

Posted by: Bizast1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2007 12:19 AM

Excellent Steve.
Question... are you 'Schteeve' from Bronx Banter?
I am surprised at these results. Timlin (37) well below average? Pineiro (27) way below average? Hansen and Donnelly barely average?

I would love to see you pick another evalution method (other then BVP) and add it to the table. Maybe you could adds an average of ZIPS and the other predictions also.

I would love to believe the BVP numbers, but would like to see the 'rates' via other evaluation menthods.

But still great stuff.

Posted by: singledd [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2007 10:32 AM

Thanks

~~~Question... are you 'Schteeve' from Bronx Banter?~~~

No, I'm "NetShrine" there.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2007 12:30 PM